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HomeMy WebLinkAboutPersonal Viewpoint: East End Shuttle Concept Personal Viewpoint: For Immediate Publication in Whole or Part "East End Shuttle Concept Largely Validated in 'Coordinated Rail-Bus Network Study' Conducted by Volpe National Transportation Systems Center" The citizen-based public transit advocacy group, Five Town Rural Transit (5TRT), Inc., first presented its East End Shuttle Development Proposal in December 2005. At the conclusion, 5TRT called for a 'feasibility study' to be conducted to validate the Shuttle concept. Further, 5TRT recommended the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center ("Volpe Center") in Cambridge, MA be hired to conduct the study. After many twists, tums and delays, Volpe was hired to conduct what was renamed the "Coordinated Rail-Bus Network" Study (known locaally as the "Volpe Study"). Volpe began its effort in December 2007, working through a technical advisory group that included East End Town planners, 5TRT Board members and representatives from various County, State and Federal transportation agencies. On 5 February 2009, Volpe released two draft documents entitled "East End Coordinated Rail-Bus Network" and "Summary of Altemative Transit Option" that highlight their research and analyses. These documents will be modified further before being finalized, but they are sufficiently enough evolved now to warrant public review. In my opinion, there has been startlingly little public discussion of this project over the past 14 months, and I hope this viewpoint will begin to rectify that situation. In this report, I will only focus on the first Volpe document because it is essentially an analysis of the East End Shuttle concept, as requested by 5TRT. Regarding the second Volpe document, this 'alternative' is not even close to the Shuttle concept and would only make incremental and insignificant changes to an existing transit situation that really needs a major overhaul. The Volpe "Coordinated Rail-Bus Network" study draft is very impressive. It has taken much longer to get to this point than expected, but this research summary and analysis are well worth the wait. Most significantly, the Volpe analysis largely validates the original East End Shuttle concept, even though some so-called 'experts' told 5TRT "it can't be done" and that as a citizen group we were "nafve". , ~tAR 2 3 2009 Here are some key comparisons of the 5TRT Proposal and Volpe consultant's analysis: · The original East End Shuttle Proposal called for development of "a coordinated rail and bus shuttle system with scheduled service as often as every 30 minutes in both directions on our single track lines." Volpe says that idea is feasible with service "every 30 minutes during peak periods and every 60 minutes at other times" provided that "several infrastructure improvements are made" to the tracks. Agreed. · 5TRT said the East End would need 21 new style "self-propelled rallcars" to provide the rail service, at a cost of $52.5 million. Volpe says we need 23 of these railcars but their cost estimate is based on a vendor that is no longer in business, as they note. Refurbished Budd Cars, as they also mention, can be purchased, but the cost would be $2.0 million each, for a total of $46.0 million. Assuming Volpe makes this revision, their cost total will be less than 5TRT for new railcars to provide the Shuttle service. · 5TRT said we would need five passing sidings to allow the new rallcars to pass each other going in opposite directions. We said each should be one mile long, for a total cost of $5.0 million. Volpe says we need 7 passing sidings but they only need to be one-half mile long, for a total cost of $3.5 million. They confirm the notion that passing sidings will work at the service levels proposed, and for the foreseeable future. · Volpe and 5TRT agree about the reopening of five rail stations closed by the LIRR: Calverton, Quogue, Stony Brook/Southampton College, Water Mill and Walnseott. · 5TRT projected a need for 45 new style hybrid electric buses for a total cost of $17.75 million to provide the connecting bus service. Volpe says we need 62 hybrid electric buses, but at a lower unit cost, for a total of $18.6 million. · 5TRT projected a total capital cost of $154.5 million to develop the full network, which included several other infrastructure items not mentioned here. If Volpe accepts the railcar cost revision I mention above, their total capital cost estimate would be less, $125.5 million. (Note: Although not addressed in the Volpe analysis, il was the belief of 5TRT that this one time investment would primarily be made by the Federal Government, perhaps now as part of the Obama Stimulus Package.) · 5TRT projected an annual operating cost for the Shuttle of "less than $40.0 million". The Volpc projection is $41.1 million annually. (Note: Volpe does not address where these operating dollars would come from, but 5TRT has noted that the East End paid far more than $40 million in annual tax assessments to the MTA in 2004, and there would be other income sources like fare box revenue and a Suffolk County bus assessment that would not require any East End resident tax increase to pay for Shuffle operations.) · 5TRT and Volpe agree that the current ridership of LIRR trains and Suffolk County buses is 1,000,000 one-way trips per year. This becomes the "baseline" for planning. · 5TRT projected ridership on the East End Shuttle would be 4,674,690 one-way trips by year 3, providing two years for the network to "ramp up" to this 'full service'. The Volpe ridemhip projection is 3,100,000 trips (ostensibly for year 1, although not stated). Inexplicably however, Volpe then says a 2005 SEEDS report estimate of only 1,300,000 riders is "arguably the most realistic". To me, this is the sole unexplainable element 6f Volpe's work and it needs much further discussion and justification. At the very least their final report should compare and contrast these three ridership projections: 1. SEEDS - 1.3 million trips (ostensibly for Year 1) 2. VOLPE - 3.1 million trips (ostensibly for Year 1) 3.5TRT - 4.67 million trips (projected for Year 3 of operations. For this reason, I believe the Volpe and 5TRT estimates are actually quite similar.) I'll admit this optimistic view of Volpe's work in validating the coordinated rail-bus network concept is probably not shared by some of our local Town planners and the State and Federal transportation agency people who were involved in SEEDS. Some of them feel a major transit improvement is not warranted on the East End. If I were a betting man, I'd say they will push for the lesser Volpe "alternative" to this concept, which I would label as "a little more of the same". The much lower SEEDS ridership projection would likely be the result, if we did little to improve service; clearly, a self-fulfilling prophesy. In my opinion, the battlegrounds will be these differing "estimates'' about how many people would use the coordinated rail-bus network in order to justify its development, and disagreement over the East End's "right" to use its already collected tax dollars for this purpose, rather than shipping it off to the MTA general fund, as we now do. To be fair to the Volpe professionals, however, it was not their intent to deal with the issues of paying for any new services that might be deemed possible. They made that point very clear from the outset. The Volpe job was to analyze the Coordinated Rail-Bus Network (aka 'East End Shuttle') concept and determine if it was technically and operationally feasible. Basically, they have completed that task and the results are very favorable, in my opinion. Our local political leaders and the public will have to assert themselves very soon, before the lesser alternative of little service improvement is selected without public debate. That is why I hope this viewpoint will stimulate a much-needed public discussion that leads to a regional commitment to develop a coordinated rail-bus network for the East End. Hank de Cillia Bridgehampton 1 March 2009 Hank has been active in East End transportation matters since 1992. He co-founded Five Town Rural Transit (STRT), Inc. and was its Executive Director until last year.