HomeMy WebLinkAboutLabor Force & Jobs Analyses 1983L4BOR FORC(
41'tD JOB '
-1983
LONG ISLAND REGIONAL PLANNING BOARD
LONG ISLAND REGIONAL PLANNING BOARD
James M. Shuart
Chairman
Patrick F. Caputo
John V.N. Klein
John Wickham
John W. Wydler
Lee E. Koppelman
Executive Director
John J. Hart
Vice Chairman
NASSAU COUNTY
Ludwig Hasl
Commissioner
Department of Public Works
EX OFFICIO
SUFFOLK COUNTY
A. Barton Cass
Commissioner
Department of Public Works
Peter T. King
Comp troller
Honorable Francis T. Purcell
County Executive
ADVISORY
Joseph Caputo
Comp troller
Honorable Peter F. Cohalan
County Executive
Honorable Thomas S. Gulotta
Presiding Supervisor
County Board of Supervisors
Honorable Louis Howard
Presiding Officer
County Legislature
Herbert J. Libert
COUNTY COORDINATION
Arthur Kunz
Preface
The Long Island Regional Planning Board has completed
numerous studies since 1965 designed to provide the people of
the two counties with a workable blueprint for the future of the
area.
As we progress to the last decades of this century, there is an
increasing awareness that the measure and degree of public
concern that has been given to environmental and land use
issues during the past decades of unparalleled growth must now
be focused on the health of the Long Island economy. A three
year comprehensive economic planning study has been
initiated.
The first report, Industrial Location Analyses-1980, is designed
to provide a summary of industrial data that can be useful to
development agencies and brokers.
The second report, Commercial Development Analyses- 1982,
is designed to provide a summary of commercial data that can
be useful to development agencies and brokers.
This document is the third published product. It contains an
analysis of the changes in the composition of the labor force dur-
ing the 1960-1980 period. In addition to employment status, in-
come levels and journey-to-work patterns--the quality and pro-
ductivity of the resident labor force is examined as a guide to
Long Island's competitive position.
The study also examines the competitive position for in-
dividual manufacturing industries.
This is followed by an analysis of consumer and business ser-
vice jobs. This sector is of growing importance as evidenced by
the fact that Nassau and Suffolk Counties' median household ef-
fective buying income is the highest of any metropolitan area in
the nation.
The report concludes with a series of employment and labor
force projections.
The fourth report in this series will address the government
sector in terms of services, revenues and expenditures.
The final report will contain recommendations, programs, and
plans for the economic future of Long Island over the next two
decades.
September 30, 1983
Lee E. Koppelman
iii
LIST OF CONTENTS
Page
CHAPTER I. A PROFILE OF THE LABOR FORCE ............................................
Employment Status ................................................................... 1
Size of the Resident Labor Force ....................................................... 1
Labor Force Participation Rates ....................................................... 1
The Civilian Labor Force ............................................................. 4
Disability Status of Nassau-Suffolk Residents ............................................. 4
Part-time vs. Full-time Employment ..................................................... 4
Family Responsibilities of Females in the Labor Force ...................................... 6
Employment Status, By Race .......................................................... 6
Class of Worker ...................................................................... 6
Income ............................................................................. 9
Median Income .................................................................... 9
Income: Families, Unrelated Individuals ................................................. 9
Income, by Race .................................................................. 14
Income, by Type ................................................................... 14
Place of Work: Nassau-Suffolk Residents ................................................. 14
Nassau County .................................................................... 14
Suffolk County .................................................................... 14
CHAPTER I1. LABOR FORCE QUALITY ................................................... 17
Educational Attainment ............................................................... 17
Occupational Skills ................................................................... 18
Occupational Supply-Demand Relationships ............................................... 20
Supply-Demand Relationships for Professional and Technical Workers ........................ 20
Supply-Demand Relationships for Clerical and Sales Workers ............................... 22
Supply-Demand Relationships for Craft Workers .......................................... 22
Supply-Demand Relationships for Operatives and Laborers ................................. 22
Wage Costs vs. Labor Force Productivity ................................................. 25
Comparative Wage Costs ............................................................ 25
Comparative Worker Productivity ..................................................... 27
Living Costs ........................................................................ 27
CHAPTER III. A PROFILE OF JOBS ...................................................... 31
Employment Growth, 1970-80 .......................................................... 31
Employment Growth, 1970-75 vs. 1975-80 ............................................... 32
Employment Growth, Nassau vs. Suffolk County .......................................... 36
Payrolls, by Industry .................................................................. 36
Size of Firm, by Industry ............................................................... 41
CHAPTER IV, MANUFACTURING JOBS .................................................. 43
The Industry Mix of Manufacturing Jobs .................................................. 43
Competitive Position: Long Island vs. New York State ........................................ 43
competitive Position: Durables Industries ................................................. 46
Government-Oriented Production ..................................................... 48
Competitive Position: Non-Durable Industries .............................................. 53
iv
LIST OF CONTENTS
Page
CHAPTER V. CONSUMER AND BUSINESS SERVICE JOBS .............................. 59
Retail Trade ................................................................ 59
Building Material and Garden Supply Retailers ..................................... 60
General Merchandise (Department) Stores ......................................... 60
Food Stores ............................................................. 60
Automobile Dealers ....................................................... 60
Gasoline Service Stations 60
Apparel and Accessory Stores ................................................ 60
Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores ........................................... 60
Eating and Drinking Places 63
Conclusions: Retail Trade 63
Consumer Services 64
Hotels, Motels, Trailer Parks 64
Personal Services 64
Auto Repair Services, Garages 64
Miscellaneous Repair Services 64
Amusement and Recreational Services .......................................... 64
Conclusions: Consumer Services 67
Business Services 68
Advertising 68
Credit Agencies 68
Commercial Photography, Art and Graphics ........................................ 68
Services to Buildings 68
Employment Agencies 68
Computer and Data Processing Services ........................................ 68
Management Consulting, Public Relations Services 68
Detective and Protective Services ............................................ 68
Equipment Rental and Leasing Services 68
Legal Services 69
Engineering and Architectural Services 69
Higher Education 70
Enrollments 70
Annual Tuition 70
Full*time Faculty 70
The Future of Higher Education of Long Island 70
CHAPTER VI. EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE PROJECTIONS ..................... 73
Employment Projections ............................................ 73
Projected Employment, 1985, 1990 ........................................... 74
Projected Manufacturing Employment ..................................... 74
Projected Retail Employment ........................................... 74
Projected Employment, Finance, Insurance and Real Estate ....................... 75
Projected Service Industry Employment ................................... 75
Comparison With Other Projections ...................................... 75
Labor Force Projections ............................................. 79
Projected Labor Force, 1985, 1990 ................................... 79
Occupational Requirements of Emerging Jobs ................................ 82
V
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure No. Title Page
1.1 Growth of the Resident Labor Force
Nassau-Suffolk 1960-1980 .................................................. 2
1.2 Population Growth vs. Labor Force Growth
Nassau-Suffolk 1960-1980 ............................................... 2
1.3 Size of the Resident Labor Force, By Sex
Nassau-Suffolk 1960, 1970, 1980 ............................................. 3
1.4 Rates of Labor Force Participation, By Sex
Nassau-Suffolk 1960, 1970, 1980 .............................................. 3
1.5 Employment vs. Unemployment
Nassau-Suffolk 1960, 1970, 1980 ............................................. 5
1.6 Unemployment Rates, By Sex
Nassau-Suffolk 1960, 1970, 1980 ............................................ 5
1.7 Part-Time vs. Full-Time Work Status
Nassau-Suffolk 1979 .................................................... 7
1.8 Family Responsibilities of Women in the Labor Force
1970, 1980 ............................................................ 7
1.9 Class of Worker, 1970, 1980
Nassau-Suffolk Resident Labor Force ....................................... 9
1.10 Median Family Income,
Nassau-Suffolk 1959, 1969, 1979 .................................... 11
1.11 Change in Median Family Income
Nassau-Suffolk 1959-69, 1969-79 ......................................... 11
1.12 Distribution of Families, By Income Class
Nassau-Suffolk 1969, 1979 12
1.13 Distribution of Income
Families vs. Unrelated Individuals Nassau-Suffolk 1979 ....................... 13
1.14 Distribution of Family Income, By Race
Nassau-Suffolk, 1979 ............................................. 15
1.15 Place of Work
Nassau County Residents 1960, 1970, 1980 ............................... 16
1.16 Place of Work
Suffolk County Residents 1960, 1970, 1980 ................................. 16
2.1 Years of School Completed, By Age
Nassau-Suffolk Residents, 1980 ........................................ 20
2.2 Labor Supply-Demand Ratios For Selected Professional
and Technical Occupations, 1980 Nassau-Suffolk ........................... 21
2.3 Labor Supply-Demand Ratios For Selected Clerical
and Sales Occupations, 1980 Nassau-Suffolk ................................ 23
vi
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure No. Title
Page
2.4 Labor Supply-Demand Ratios For Selected Craft Occupations, 1980 Nassau-Suffolk ....... 24
2.5 Labor Supply-Demand Ratios For Operatives and Laborers, 1980 Nassau-Suffolk ......... 26
2.6 Relative Pay Levels, 1981 Nassau-Suffolk vs. Selected SMSA's ....................... 28
2.7 Percent Change in Value Added Per Dollar of Wages
Nassau-Suffolk vs. Selected SMSAs 1972-78 .................................... 28
2.8 Annual Costs of An Intermediate Budget for a Four-Person Family.
Autumn, 1981 New York Region vs. Selected SMSAs ............................. 29
3.1 The Changing Industry Mix of Private Sector Jobs, Nassau-Suffolk ..................... 33
3.2 The Dominant Long Island Growth Industries 1970-80 ............................... 33
3.3 Net Change in Employment by Industry,
Nassau-Suffolk 1970-75 vs. 1975-80 ......................................... 35
3.4 Growth of Private Sector vs. Government Jobs
Nassau-Suffolk 1970-75 vs. 1975-80 .......................................... 35
3.5 Employment, By Industry, 1980
Nassau-Suffolk .......................................................... 37
3.6 Net Change in Employment, 1970-80
Nassau vs. Suffolk ........................................................ 37
3.7 Employment vs. Payrolls, 1980 Nassau-Suffolk ................................... 38
3.8 Payrolls Per Employee, By Industry
Nassau-Suffolk 1980 ....................................................... 39
3.9 Distribution of Establishments, By Employment Size
Nassau-Suffolk 1980 ..................................................... 40
3.10 Percent of Firms Employing 1 to 4 Workers by Industry, 1980
Nassau-Suffolk ........................................................ 40
4.1 Percent Distribution of Manufacturing Employment, 1980
Durables vs. Non-Durables Industries Nassau-Suffolk ............................ 44
4.2 Value Added Per Dollar of Wages, 1977
Nassau-Suffolk vs. Selected Areas, Electric and Electronic Equipment ............... 47
4.3 Value Added Per Dollar of Wages, 1977
Nassau-Suffolk vs. Selected Areas, Fabricated Metal Products ..................... 47
4.4 Value Added Per Dollar of Wages, 1977
Nassau-Suffolk vs. Selected Areas, Non-Electrical Machinery ...................... 49
4.5 Value Added Per Dollar of Wages, 1977
Nassau-Suffolk vs. Selected Areas, Instruments and Related Products ............... 50
4.6 Value Added Per Dollar of Wages, 1977
Nassau-Suffolk vs. Selected Areas, Primary Metal Industries ....................... 50
vii
Figure No.
4.7
4.8
4.9
4.10
4.11
4.12
4.13
4.14
4.15
5.1
5.2
6.1
6.2
6.3
6.4
6.5
6.6
LIST OF FIGURES
Title Page
Employment Generated by Sales to the Federal Government, 1979
Nassau-Suffolk .................................................... 51
Value of Shipments Generated by Sales to the Federal Government, 1979
Nassau-Suffolk .................................................... 51
Employment and Value-Added Per Employee in Government-Oriented Industries, 1979
Nassau-Suffolk vs. Selected Metropolitan Areas ............................ 52
Value Added Per Dollar of Wages, 1977
Nassau-Suffolk vs. Selected Areas, Printing and Publishing ................... 54
Value Added Per Dollar of Wages, 1977
Nassau-Suffolk vs. Selected Areas, Paper and Allied Products ..................... 54
Value Added Per Dollar of Wages, 1977
Nassau-Suffolk vs. Selected Areas, Apparel and Textiles ...................... 55
Value Added Per Dollar of Wages, 1977
Nassau-Suffolk vs. Selected Areas, The Food Industry ......................... 55
Value Added Per Dollar of Wages, 1977
Nassau-Suffolk vs. Selected Areas, Chemicals and Allied Products ................. 56
Value Added Per Dollar of Wages, 1977
Nassau-Suffolk vs. Selected Areas, Rubber and Plastics .......................... 56
Percent Distribution of Retail Trade Employment, 1980
Nassau-Suffolk ........................................................ 62
Percent Distribution of Consumer Service Employment, 1980
Nassau-Suffolk ..................................................... 66
Projected Manufacturing Employment, By Industry, 1980-90
Nassau-Suffolk ........................................................ 76
Projected Employment, By Industry, Retail Trade, Finance, 1980-90
Nassau-Suffolk ..................................................... 77
Projected Employment, By Industry, The Service Industries, 1980-90
Nassau-Suffolk ......................................................... 78
Projected Labor Force, By Sex, 1985, 1990
Nassau-Suffolk ........................................................ 81
Projected Labor Force, by Age and Sex, 1990
Nassau-Suffolk .......................................................... 83
The Projected Occupational Mix for Long Island's Major Growth Industries, 1990 ........ 85
viii
LIST OF TABLES
Table No. Title Page
1.1 Disability Status of Nassau-Suffolk Residents, 1980 ................................. 4
1.2 Part-time vs. Full-time Work Status, 1979
Nassau-Suffolk Residents ................................................... 4
1.3 Family Responsibilities of Females in Labor Force
Nassau-Suffolk .......................................................... 6
1.4 Size of the Labor Force, Labor Force Participation Rates by Race and Sex, 1980 ........... 8
1.5 Status of Persons in the Civilian Labor Force, By Race, 1980 ....................... 8
1.6 Class of Worker, Nassau-Suffolk 1960, 1970, 1980 ............................. 10
1.7 Families, by Income Class, 1959, 1969, 1979
Nassau-Suffolk ......................................................... 10
1.8 Types of Income Received by Nassau-Suffolk Households, 1979 ...................... 14
2.1 The Occupational Skills of Nassau-Suffolk Residents, 1980 ....................... 18, 19
2.2 Labor Supply and Demand for Major Occupations, 1980
Nassau and Suffolk Counties .......................................... 22
2.3 Earnings of Workers in Selected Occupations, August, 1982
Nassau-Suffolk ........................................................... 27
3.1 The Changing Industry Mix of Employment on Long Island, 1970-80 ................... 32
3.2 Employment in Selected High-Technology Manufacturing Industries, 1980
Nassau-Suffolk vs. New York State ......................................... 34
3.3 Total Payrolls, by Industry, 1980
Nassau and Suffolk Counties ............................................. 36
4.1 The Industry Mix of Manufacturing Employment, 1980
Nassau-Suffolk .................................................... 45
4.2 Value Added Per Dollar of Wages, 1977
Nassau-Suffolk rs. New York State ..................................... 46
5.1 The Industry Mix of Retail Trade Employment, 1980
Nassau-Suffolk ......................................................... 61
5.2 Sales and Payrolls Per Employee, Retail Trade By Industry, 1977
Nassau-Suffolk vs. United States ............................................ 61
5.3 Sales and Payrolls Per Employee, 1977
Nassau-Suffolk, New York Region, United States, Retail Trade ...................... 63
5.4 The Industry Mix of Consumer Service Employment, 1980
Nassau-Suffolk ......................................................... 65
5.5 Receipts and Payrolls Per Employee, Consumer Services, By Industry, 1977
Nassau-Suffolk vs. United States ......................................... 65
5.6 Receipts and Payrolls Per Employee, 1977
Nassau-Suffolk, New York Region, United States, Consumer Services ................ 67
Table No.
5.7
5.8
6.1
6.2
6.3
6.4
6.5
6.6
LIST OF TABLES
Title Page
Receipts and Payrolls Per Employee, 1977
Nassau-Suffolk, New York Region, United States, Business Services ............... 69
The Dimensions of Higher Education on Long Island, Enrollments, Tuition, Faculty ........ 71
Projected Non-Farm Employment, 1985, 1990
The Nassau-Suffolk SMSA 75
Comparison of Employment Projections, LIRPB vs. OBERS ..................... 79
The Nassau-Suffolk Population, By Age 1980 (actual); 1985 and 1990 (projected) ....... 80
Labor Force Projections, By Sex, 1985, 1990
Nassau-Suffolk 80
Labor Force Projections, By Age and Sex, 1985, 1990
Nassau-Suffolk 82
The Projected Occupational Mix of New Jobs in Long Island's Growth Industries, 1990 84
PARTICIPATING STAFF
Assistant Director of Planning
Arthur H. Kunz
Chief Economist
Pearl M. Kamer
Graphics-Book Preparation
Anthony Tucci-Cartographer
Thomas Frisenda
Carl Lind
Word Processor
Penny Kohler
Fig. 1.1
GROWTH OF THE RESIDENT LABOR FORCE
NASSAU-SUFFOLK
1960-1980
Fig. 1.2
POPULATION GROWTH VS. LABOR FORCE GROWTH
NASSAU-SUFFOLK
1960-1980
Nassau
Suffolk
0 200,000 400,000 600,000
Nassau
Suffolk
1960-70
1970-80
2
Chapter I....
A Profile of
the Labor Force
This chapter analyzes changes in the composition of the Long
Island labor force between 1960 and 1980. It focuses on employ-
ment status, class of worker, income levels and journey-to-work
patterns.
EMPLOYMENT STATUS
Size of the Resident Labor Force. Nassau-Suffolk's resident
labor force increased from 715,394 in 1960 to 992,081 in 1970 to
1,229,922 in 19807 This was equivalent to a gain of 39% during
the 1960s and 24% during the 1970s. The most significant
development was that labor force growth exceeded population
growth during both decades. Between 1960 and 1970, Long
Island's population grew by almost 30% and it's labor force ex-
panded by almost 39%. Between 1970 and 1980, the disparity
between population and labor force growth was even more pro-
nounced. The bi-county population grew by only 2% while the
resident labor force expanded by 24 %.
Increased labor force participation by women accounted for
much of the disparity between population and labor force growth
during the 1970s. During the 1960s, almost 140,000 women
entered Long Island's labor force and accounted for about half of
bi-county labor force growth during that decade. Between 1970
and 1980, almost 160,000 women entered the Long Island labor
force. They accounted for two-thirds of labor force growth.
Labor Force Participation Rates. Increased labor force par-
ticipation by women was reflected in the significant increases
shown in their rate of labor force participation.2 Female rates of
labor force participation increased from 29.5 % in 1960 to 38.2 %
in 1970 to 48.6% in 1980. Conversely, male participation rates
declined from 80.2% in 1960 to 79.7% in 1970 to 77.6% in
1980. Declining male rates reflect a longer initial period of
schooling and a trend toward earlier retirements.
1The resident labor force includes those Nassau-Suffolk residents who are
employed, who are unemployed but seeking work, and members of the armed
forces.
2The labor force participation rate describes the proportion of persons age 16
and older who participate in the labor force.
The Civilian Labor Force. In 1980, there were 1,228,582 per-
sons in the bi-county civilian labor force of whom 1,163,831
(94.7%) were employed and 64,751 (5.3%) were unemployed.$
Unemployment rates on Long Island rose by approximately two
percentage points between 1970 and 1980, after holding steady
between 1960 and 1970.
3The civilian labor force extrudes members of the armed forces
Disability Status of Nassau-Suffolk Residents. The. 1980
census, for the first time, asked respondents to report any work
disability and to indicate whether the disability was sufficient to
prevent them from working. In 1980, 100,272 bi-county resi-
dents, 5.9% of the total, reported a work disability. Of these,
38,211 persons or about 38% of all disabled persons, par-
ticipated in the labor force. The remaining 62,061 did not par-
ticipate and, of these, 84% indicated that their disability
prevented them from working.
TABLE 1.1
Disability Status of Nassau-Suffolk Residents, 1980
Persons with a Work Disability In Labor
Number Percent of Total Force
Not in Labor Force
Total Prevented from Working
Nassau 49,104 5.5% 19,198
Suffolk 51,168 6.3 19,013
Bi-County 100,272 5.9 38,211
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
29,9O6 24,74O
32,155 27,141
62,061 51,881
Part-time vs. Full-time Employment. The 1980 census pro-
vided detailed information about part-time and full-time employ-
ment for Nassau-Suffolk residents as of calendar year 1979.4 In
1979, full-time employment was more common among men than
among women. For example, 40.7% of all women worked full-
time, 21.7% worked full-time for less than one year and 37.6%
worked part-time. Among males, 68,0% worked full-time, 19.3%
worked full-time for less than one year and only 12.7% worked
part-time.
Nassau
Suffolk
Bi-County
TABLE 1.2
Part-Time vs. Full-Time Work Status, 1979
Nassau-Suffolk Residents
MALES
Worked Worked Full-time Worked
Full:Time Less than One Year Pad-Time
274,794 72,348 53,242
238,457 73,458 42,719
513,251 145,806 95,961
FEMALES
Worked Worked Full-time Worked
Full-Time Less than One Year Part-Time
4Full-time employment is defined as a workweek of 35 hours or more for 50 to 52
weeks. A workweek of 35 hours or more for 49 weeks or less is defined as work-
ing "full-time for less than one year." Part-time employment is defined as less
than 35 hours per week for one to 52 weeks.
Nassau 123,400 58,170 110,794
Suffolk 98,505 59,795 94,010
Bi-County 221,905 117,965 204,804
Source: U.S.
Bureau of the Census
Fig. l.3
SIZE OF THE RESIDENT LABOR FORCE, BY SEX
NASSAU-SUFFOLK
1960,1970,1980
Fig. l.4
RATES OF LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION, BY SEX
NASSAU-SUFFOLK
1960,1970,1980
1960 1970 1980
1960 1970 1980
Fig. 1.5
EMPLOYMENT VS. UNEMPLOYMENT*
NASSAU-SUFFOLK
1960,1970,1980
Fig. l.6
UNEMPLOYMENT RATES, BY SEX
NASSAU-SUFFOLK
1960,1970,1980
1960 1970 1980
Manes
Females
6
2
1960 1970 1980
1960 1970 1980
5
Family Responsibilities of Females in the Labor Force.
The higher incidence of part-time employment among women is
partly attributable to their family responsibilities. The census in-
dicated that more women are working and that more women with
relatively young children are employed. For example, in 1970,
29,158 bi-county women with children under age six participated
in the Long Island labor force. This was equivalent to almost
17% of all women with young children. In 1980, more than
42,000 women with children under age six participated in the
labor force. This was equivalent to almost 31% of all women with
children of this age.
The same pattern of increased participation was evident for
women with children between the ages of 6 and 17 years. In
1970, 100,443 such women, or about 45% of all women with
TABLE 1.3
Family Responsibilities of Females in Labor Force
Nassau-Suffolk
1970, 1980
With Own Children Under Age 6
1970 1980
In Labor Not in Labor In Labor Not in Labor
Force Force Force Force
Nassau 12,716 69,181 17,851 43,126
Suffolk 16,442 74,294 24,357 52,433
Bi-County 29,158 143,475 42,208 95,559
With Own Children Age 6 to 17 Years
1970 1980
In Labor Not in Labor In Labor Not in Labor
Force Force Force Force
Nassau 59,464 75,739 62,898 47,889
Suffolk 40,979 45,557 68,026 47,089
Bi-County 100,443 121,296 130,924 94,978
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
children of this age, participated in the labor force. By 1980,
almost 131,000 women with children of this age participated in
the labor force. This was equivalent to 58% of all women with
children between ages 6 and 17.
Employment Status, By Race. In 1980, labor force participa-
tion rates varied by race. Among males, persons of Spanish
origin were characterized by the highest rate of labor force par-
ticipation, 79.2%, followed by white males, 78.0%, and black
males, 71.5%. Among females, black females had by far the
highest rate of labor force participation, 58.9%, followed by
females of Spanish origin, 52.1%, and white females, 47.9%.
In 1980, blacks and persons of Spanish origin were charact-
erized by higher unemployment rates than whites. The bi-county
unemployment rate for whites was 5.1% as compared with a
rate of 7.4% for blacks and 6.9% for persons of Spanish origin.
CLASS OF WORKER
The Census Bureau classifies the labor force into four broad
occupational categories: Private wage and salary workers,
government employees, self-employed persons and unpaid fam-
ily workers? Between 1970 and 1980, proportionately more
residents were employed in private wage and salary jobs and in
government than in the pervious decade. In 1980, 871,026
residents, or 74.8%, were private wage and salary workers. This
compares with a ratio of 70.7% in 1970. In 1980, 223,518
residents, 19.2% of the labor force, were employed by govern-
ment. In 1970, approximately 18.4% were government
employees. By contrast, the proportion of self-employed persons
declined from 10.6% of the labor force in 1970 to only 5.6% in
1980.
5Private wage and salary workers inctude persons who worked for a private
employer for wages, salary, commission, tips, pay-in-kind, or at piece rates.
Government workers include persons who worked for Federal, state, or local
government. Self-employed persons are those who worked for profit or fees in
their own incorporated or unincorporated business, profession, or trade, or who
operated a farm. Unpaid family workers are persons who worked without pay on
a farm or in a business operated by a person to whom they are related by blood or
marriage.
Fig. 1.5
EMPLOYMENT VS. UNEMPLOYMENT*
NASSAU-SUFFOLK
1960, 1970, 1980
Fig. l.6
UNEMPLOYMENT RATES, BY SEX
NASSAU-SUFFOLK
1960,1970,1980
1960 1970 1980
Males
6
Females
1960 1970
1960 1970 1980
1980
Fig. 1.7
PART-TIME VS. FULL-TIME WORK STATUS
NASSAU-SUFFOLK
1979
Fig, 1.8
FAMILY RESPONSIBILITIES OF WOMEN IN
THE LABOR FORCE
1970, 1980
with own
children
under
Age 6
with own
children
Age 6 to 17
years
Males Females
TABLE 1.4
Size of the Labor Force, Labor Force Participation Rates
by Race and Sex, 1980
Size of Participation
Labor Force Rate
White Males
Nassau 358,738 78.9
Suffolk 320,349 77.0
Bi-County 679,087 78.0
Black Males
Nassau 19,578 73.2
Suffolk 15,175 69.3
Bi-County 34,753 71.5
Males of Spanish Origin*
Nassau 11,863 82.0
Suffolk 13,899 76.9
Bi-County 25,762 79.2
White Females
Nassau 244,907 48.6
Suffolk 214,745 47.2
Bi-County 459,652 47.9
Black Females
Nassau 21,693 61.1
Suffolk 14,360 55.8
Bi-County 36,053 58.9
Females of Spanish Origin*
Nassau 9,269
Suffolk 9,713
Bi-County 18,982
*May be of any race.
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
56.0
48.8
52.1
TABLE 1.5
Status o1 Persons in the Civilian Labor Force,
By Race, 1980
Persons of
Whites Blacks Spanish Origin*
Nassau
Civilian Labor Force 603,078 41,134
Employed 576,810 38,401
Unemployed 26,268 2,733
Unemployment Rate (%) 4.4 6.6
21,085
19,742
1,343
6.4
Suffolk
Civilian Labor Force 534,585 29,462
Employed 502,535 26,958
Unemployed 32,050 2,504
Unemployment Rate (%) 6.0 8.5
23,580
21,850
1,730
7.3
Bi-County
Civilian Labor Force 1,137,663 70,596
Employed 1,079,345 65,359
Unemployed 58,318 5,237
Unemployment Rate (%) 5.1 7.4
44,665
41,592
3,073
6.9
*Persons of Spanish origin may be of any race.
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
8
Fig. 1.9
CLASS OF WORKER, 1970, 1980
NASSAU-SUFFOLK RESIDENT LABOR FORCE
Unpaid
Family
Self-
Employed
Government
Private Wage
and Salary
1970 1980
9
INCOME
Median Income. The Census Bureau compiles income sta-
tistics for both families and unrelated individuals. Income
represents the amount regularly received before deductions for
personal income taxes, social security, bond purchases, union
dues, medicare and similar deductions. Between 1969 and 1979,
median family income rose from $14,632 to $28,445 in Nassau
and from $12,084 to $24,195 in Suffolk, This represents a 94,4%
dollar gain in Nassau and a 100.2% dollar gain in Suffolk.
However, the Consumer Price Index for the New York-North-
eastern New Jersey Region, which includes Nassau and Suffolk
Counties, increased by 92,3% between 1969 and 1979, This held
real income gains to only 2.I % in Nassau and 7.9% in Suffolk
during the 1970s.
These figures suggest that despite large increases in the
number of working women and despite the sharp rise in two~
wage-earner households, bi-county family incomes just about
kept pace with inflation during the 1970s. During the 1960s, real
family income rose by more than 42% in Nassau and 48% in
Suffolk.
Income: Families, Unrelated Individuals. Upward income
shifts, caused in large measure by inflation, were reflected in
fewer families in the lower income brackets and more families in
the $25,000 or more income category. Between 1969 and t979,
the number of families with incomes below $25,000 declined by
156,188 in Nassau and 79,183 in Suffolk. The number of families
with incomes of $25,000 or more increased by t51,987 in
Nassau and by 136,639 in Suffolk. Only 41% of all Nassau
families and 52% of all Suffolk families earned incomes below
$25,000 in 1979. tn 1969, 84 % of all Nassau families and 93 % of
all Suffolk families were in this income category.
Family income levels were consistently above those of unre-
lated individuals6 in both 1969 and 1979. Whereas only 2.7% of
Nassau families and 3.6% of all Suffolk families reported in-
comes below $5,000 in 1979, 31.7% of all unrelated individuals
in Nassau and 36.9% of those in Suffolk were in this income
category. By contrast 59.3% of all Nassau families and 47.7%
6 An unrelated individual is a member of a household who is not related to anyone
else in the household o~ is a person living in group quarters who is not an inmate
of an institution
Class of Worker
Private Wage &
Salary Workers
Government Workers
Self-Employed Persons
Unpaid Family Workers
Total
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
TABLE 1.6
Class of Worker
Nassau-Suffolk
1960,1970,1980
Nassau
1960 1970 1980
350,408 405,654 479,519
58,598 94,254 106,690
61,681 67,637 37,035
2,235 1,654 2,036
472,922 569,199 625,280
1960
Suffolk
1970 1980
157,089 272,083 391,507
34,229 81,807 116,828
22,677 33,855 28,367
1,441 1,239 1,849
215,436 388,984 538,551
TABLE 1.7
Families, by Income Class, 1959, 1969, 1979
Nassau-Suffolk
(Number of Familes)
Nassau Net Change Suffolk Nat Change
Income Class 1959 1969 1979 1959-69 1969-79 1959 1969 1979 1959-69 1969-79
Under $5,000 46,016 24,842 9,675 -21,174 - 15,167 40,982 26,387 11,672 - 14,595 - 14,715
$5,000-$9,999 157,577 60,284 20,959 -97,293 - 39,325 85,935 63,832 27,804 -22,103 - 36,028
$10,000-$14,999 72,174 101,970 28,833 +29,796 - 73,137 22,083 90,894 34,751 +68,811 - 56,143
$15,000-$24,999 34,779 113,843 85,284 +79,064 - 28,559 7,400 67,562 95,265 +60,162 + 27,703
$25,000-$49,999 15,874' 47,711 156,844 +42,826'+109,133 2,011' 15,396 129,720 + 15,486'+ 114,324
$50,000 & over 10,988 53,842 + 42,854 2,101 24,416 + 22,315
All familes 326,420 359,638 355,437 +33,218 - 4,201 158,411
*Represents a family income of $25,000 and over.
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
266,172 323,628 + 107,761 + 57,456
10
Fig. 1.10
MEDIAN FAMILY INCOME
NASSAU-SUFFOLK
1959,1969,1979
Fig. 1.11
CHANGE IN MEDIAN FAMILY INCOME
NASSAU-SUFFOLK
1959-69, 1969-79
NASSAU
SUFFOLK
$10~000
$20,000
NASSAU
SUFFOLK
1I
Fig. 1.12
DISTRIBUTION OF FAMILIES, BY INCOME CLASS
NASSAU-SUFFOLK
1969,1979
Income Class
Under $5000
$5,000-$9,999
$10,000-$14,999
$15,000-$24,999
$25,000-$49,999
$50,000 and over
40
Percent
30
2O
10 0 0 10
2O
3O
4O
Percent
12
Fig. 1.13
DISTRIBUTION OF INCOMES
FAMILIES VS. UNRELATED INDIVIDUALS
NASSAU-SUFFOLK, 1979
Under $5,000
$5,000-$9,999
$10,000-$14,999
$15,000-$24,999
$25,000 +
40
20
Under $5,000
$5,000-$9,999
$10,000-$14,999
$15,000-$24,999
$25,000 +
0
0 20 40
13
of those in Suffolk reported incomes of $25,000 or more as com-
pared with 9.8% of unrelated individuals in Nassau and 7.3% of
those in Suffolk.
Income, By Race. Family income varied by race. In 1979,
minority group families generally had lower incomes than their
white counterparts. In 1979, 23.2% of all black families and
16.9% of all families of Spanish origin reported incomes of less
than $10,000 annually. Only 9.6% of all white families earned
less than $10,000 in 1979. Conversely, proportionately more
white families earned incomes of $25,000 or more. In 1979,
54.8% of all white families, 37.0% of all black families and
37.8% of all Spanish-American families reported incomes of
$25,000 or more.
Income, by Type. The Census Bureau also provides informa-
tion about the type of income received by Nassau-Suffolk house-
holds. The major categories are wage and salary income, in-
come from interest, dividends or rent and self-employment in-
come. In 1979, more than 670,000 bi-county households re-
ceived wage and salary income, approximately 431,000
households received income from interest, dividends or rent and
almost 200,000 households received social security income.
TABLE 1.8
Types of Income Received by
Nassau-Suffolk Households, 1979
Source of Income
Number of Households*
Nassau Suffolk Bi-County
Wages and Salaries
Non-Farm Self-Employment
Farm Self-Employment
Interest, Dividends, Rent
Social Security
Public Assistance
Other Sources
352,562 317,489 670,051
49,302 36,573 85,875
1,586 1,983 3,569
246,473 184,436 430,909
107,878 91,338 199,216
18,168 22,423 40,591
106,333 101,397 207,730
*Note: Households may receive income from more than one
source.
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
PLACE OF WORK: NASSAU-SUFFOLK RESIDENTS
Place of work information illustrates the labor market linkages
between Nassau-Suffolk and the remainder of the New York
Metropolitan Region. Between 1970 and 1980, the number of
persons who both lived and worked in Nassau-Suffolk increased
from 606,772 to 773,495, a gain of 166,723 or 27.5%. The
number of New York City-bound commuters increased from
231,182 to 257,413, a gain of 26,231 or 11.3 %. The proportion of
Nassau-Suffolk residents who also worked on Long Island in-
creased from 62.9% in 1960 to 64.5% in 1970 to 67.9 % in 1980.
The proportion of those commuting to New York City declined
from 31.8% in 1960 to 24.6% in 1970 to 22.6% in 1980. These
statistics confirm that vigorous bi-county job growth during the
1970s made Long Island more self-sufficient economically.
Nassau County. The number of worktrips originating and ter-
minating in Nassau County increased from 248,409 in 1960 to
295,339 in 1970 to 340,448 in 1980. Some 55.3% of Nassau
residents worked in their home county in 1980. Although the pro-
portion of Nassau residents commuting to New York City de-
clined throughout the 1960 to 1980 period, the number of New
York City-bound commuters nevertheless increased from
173,682 to 188,369 between 1970 and 1980 after declining
slightly during the t960s. Manhattan-bound commuters ac-
counted for most of the increase. The number of Nassau res-
idents employed in Suffolk increased from 22,076 to 32,102 be-
tween 1970 and 1980.
Suffolk County. The number of worktrips originating and ter-
minating in Suffolk County increased from 136,058 in 1960 to
229,368 in 1970 to 323,995 in 1980. Almost 62% of Suffolk
residents worked in their home county in 1980. The proportion of
Suffolk residents employed in New York City declined from
15.0% to 13.2% between 1970 and 1980. The absolute number
of New York City-bound commuters nevertheless increased from
57,500 in 1970 to 69,044 in 1980, a gain of 11,544 persons. The
number of Suffolk residents employed in Nassau also increased
from 59,989 to 76,950. This represents a gain of 16,961 or about
28%.
14
Fig. 1.14
DISTRIBUTION OF FAMILY INCOME, BY RACE
NASSAU-SUFFOLK, 1979
$25,000 +
$15,000-$24,999
White
Population
Black
$10,000-$14,999
$5,000-$9,999
Under $5,000
Spanish Origin White
Population
Black
Spanish Origin
15
Suffolk
New York
City
Fig. 1,15
PLACE OF WORK
NASSAU COUNTY RESIDENTS
1960, 1970, 1980
1960 1970 1980
Other
New York
City
Fig. 1.16
PLACE OF WORK
SUFFOLK COUNTY RESIDENTS
1960, 1970, 1980
Nassau
S(~ffolk
1960 1970
198O
16
Chapter 2....
Labor Force Quality
17
This chapter analyzes Long Island's competitive position in
terms of the quality and productivity of its resident labor force. It
focuses on the educational levels and occupational skills of Long
Island residents. It also evaluates the match between occupa-
tions supplied and demanded within the Long Island labor
market. The final section examines the relationship between
wage costs, productivity and living costs on Long Island.
EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT
Low-skilled manufacturing jobs are increasingly being replaced
by jobs in knowledge-intensive industries. Therefore, a well-
educated labor force which can adapt to rapidly changing job re-
quirements is a competitive asset.
In 1980, Long Island's population was more highly educated
than that of New York State. Almost 44% of Long Island's adult
population had attended one or more years of college and, of
these, 11.3% were college graduates and 11.9% had some
post-graduate education. For the state as a whole, 40% of the
adult population had attended one or more years of college,
10.3% were college graduates and 10.9% had some post-
graduate training.
Educational attainment varied by age and sex. Almost 45% of
Long Island's white population had attended one or more years
of college and, of these, 24% were college graduates and 12%
had some post-graduate education. Among blacks, 32% had at-
tended some college, 12% were college graduates and 6% had
some post-graduate education. Among Hispanics, 29% had at-
tended some college, more than 11% were college graduates
and 6% had some post-graduate education. Females generally
had less education than males. Approximately 47 % of bi-county
adult males had attended some college, 26% were college
graduates and, of these, 14% had some post-graduate educa-
tion. Among females, almost 39% had attended one or more
years of college, 19% were college graduates and, of these,
almost 10 % had some post-graduate education. These statistics
suggest that blacks, Hispanics and women could be at some
disadvantage in competing for emerging jobs in an increasingly
degree-conscious society.
Long Island's younger workers were generally better edu-
cated than their older counterparts. Only 7% of those between
ages 20 and 29 and 10% of those in the 30-39 year age category
did not graduate from high school. By contrast, more than 20%
of those between ages 40 and 69 were not high school grad-
uates. Therefore, the displaced older worker on Long Island will,
on average, require more training than the displaced younger
worker. Blacks and Hispanics were characterized by lower
levels of educational attainment than whites in each age
category. Among those between ages 20 and 29, 5.8% of all
adult whites, 14.8% of all blacks and 26.1% of all Hispanics did
not graduate from high school.
Given today's rapidly changing skill needs, it is likely that a
substantial segment of Long Island's labor force will require ad-
ditional training or retraining at some point in their careers. This
is likely despite the relatively high level of educational attainment
of Long Island workers. It is especially likely for older workers
and for minorities.
OCCUPATIONAL SKILLS
Educational attainment provides one reference point in
evaluating the quality of Long Island's labor force. The specific
occupational skills of Long Island residents are also of impor-
tance. The 1980 decennial census, for the first time, provided in-
formation about about the skills of the resident labor force in 513
occupational categories.
In 1980, approximately 759,566 bi-county residents, 61.9% of
the labor force, were white-collar workers. Included in this
overall category were 158,000 managers and executives,
177,000 professionals, 32,000 technicians, 146,000 sales per-
sons and 246,000 administrative support and clerical workers.
There was also a relatively large pool of craftpersons. In 1980,
approximately 146,000 Long Island residents, 12% of the labor
force, were employed in precision production, craft and repair
occupations. In addition, the Long Island labor force contained
about 150,000 service workers, approximately 158,000 oper-
atives, and almost 14,000 persons engaged in farming, fishing
and related occupations.
TABLE 2.1
The Occupational Skills of Nassau-Suffolk Residents, 1980
Occupation Number of
Executive, Administrative and Managerial Workers
Occupations; Management Related Occupations 157,972
Accountants & Auditors 17,445
Financial Managers & Officers 15,265
Managers: Marketing, Advertising, Public Relations 13,836
Other Executive, Administrative & Managerial Occupations 111,426
Professional Specialty Occupations 176,577
Engineers 18,268
Mathematical & Computer Scientists 5,557
Natural Scientists 2,685
Health Related Professionals 35,516
Teachers & Educational Support Occupations 68,085
Writers, Artists, Entertainers, Athletes 20,413
Other Professional Specialty Occupations 26,053
Technicians and Related Support Occupations 32,338
Health Technologists and Technicians 9,150
Engineering & Related Technologists & Technicians 11,324
Other Technicians & Related Support Occupations 11,864
Percent
of Total
12.9
1.4
1.2
1.1
9.2
14.4
1.5
0.5
0.2
2.9
5.6
1.7
2.0
2.6
0.7
0.9
1.0
18
TABLE 2.1 (cont'd.)
Occupation
Executive, Administrative and Managerial
Sales and Related Occupations
Sales Supervisors & Proprietors
Sales Representatives
Sales Workers
Other Sales Occupations
Administrative Support Occupations, Including Clerical
Clerical Supervisors
Clerks
Other Clerical & Administrative Support Occupations
Service Occupations
Private Household Occupations
Cleaning & Building Service Occupations
Protective Service Occupations
Food Preparation & Service Occupations
Health Service Occupations
Personal Service Occupations
Farming, Forestry & Fishing Occupations
Farm Managers and Farmers
Other Farm Occupations
Fishing Occupations
Precision Production, Craft & Repair Occupations
Mechanics & Repairers
Construction Trades
Precision Production Occupations
Extractive Occupations
Operatives
Machine Operators
Fabricators, Assemblers, Hand Working Occupations
Production Inspectors, Testers, Samplers, Weighers
Transportation & Material Moving Occupations
Handlers, Equipment Cleaners, Helpers & Laborers
*Less than 0.05 % TOTAL
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
Number of
Workers
146,201
22,414
53,122
47,391
23,274
246,478
21,978
83,383
141,117
149,661
6,772
25,661
32,930
42,352
23,531
18,415
13,703
1,381
10,699
1,623
145,695
47,861
46,180
51,572
82
158,015
40,348
20,242
5,834
43,898
47,693
1,226,640
Percent
of Total
11.9
1.8
4.3
3.9
1.9
20.1
1.8
6.8
11.5
12.2
0.6
2.1
2.7
3.5
1.9
1.4
1.1
0.1
0.9
0.1
11.9
3.9
3.8
4.2
12.9
3.3
1.7
0.5
3.6
3.8
100.0
19
Fig. 2.1
YEARS OF SCHOOL COMPLETED, BY AGE
NASSAU-SUFFOLK RESIDENTS, 1980
(Percent Distribution)
17¸
17 yrs.
or more
13-15 yrs.
12 yrs.
0-11 yrs.
Age 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 69
OCCUPATIONAL SUPPLY~DE~,~AND RELATIONSHIPS
This section evaluates how closely the skills of Long Island
workers conform to the occupational needs of Long Island
employers. An occupational demand matrix, which approx-
imates the occupational needs of Long Island employers, was
developed by applying national occupational coefficients to each
of Long Island's industries. The occupational needs of the in-
dividual industries were then aggregated to derive total demand
by occupation.
The Long Island labor force exceeds the number of jobs lo-
cated on Long Island. Outcommuters to New York City account
for most of this difference. Because of this situation, the supply
of workers exceeded the demand for those workers in most oc-
cupational groups. For example, the supply/demand ratio was
1,41 for professionals and technicians, 1.47 for managers, oF
ficials and proprietors, 2.23 for sales workers and 1.41 for craft
workers, There was a closer balance between suppty and de-
mand in each of the following categories: clerical and ad-
ministrative support workers, 1.21, operatives and laborers,
0.99, and service workers, 1.09. The apparent explanation for the
relatively large labor surpluses in the higher-paying professional,
managerial and sales occupations is that many of these workers
live on Long Island but commute to New York City jobs. Con-
versely, proportionately more workers with skills in the lower-
paying clerical and service occupations are employed locally
because their salaries do not justify a longer commute.
Supply.Demand Relationships for Professional and Tech
nical Workers. Within the professions, one area of major in-
terest is the approximate supply-demand match for engineers.
The occupational demand matrix indicated that approximately
17,400 engineers were needed by Long Island employers in 1980
and that approximately 18,300 engineers resided on Long Island
in 1980. However, not alt those who resided on Long Island ac-
tually worked on Long Island. The supply-demand balance for
aerospace and electronic engineers appeared to be relatively
close. However, there appeared to be an undersupply of chem-
ical, industrial and mechanical engineers and an oversupply of
civil engineers. In interpreting these results, it should be borne in
mind that individual firms can nevertheless experience selective
shortages of qualified engineers at a given point in time and at a
specific wage level.
2O
Fig. 2.2
LABOR SUPPLY-DEMAND RATIOS FOR SELECTED
PROFESSIONAL & TECHNICAL OCCUPATIONS,* 1980
NASSAU-SUFFOLK
*A ratio exceedinq "one" indicates oversupply;
a ratio of less than one indicates undersupply.
21
TABLE 2.2
Labor Supply and Demand for Major Occupations, 1980
Nassau and Suffolk Counties
Labor Labor Supply/Demand
Occupation Demand Supply Ratio
Professional, Technical 147,682 208,915 1.41
Managers, Officials, Proprietors 107,664 157,972 1.47
Sales Workers 65,703 146,201 2.23
Clerical and Administrative
Support Workers 203,507 246,478 1.21
Craft and Kindred Workers 103,448 145,695 1.41
Operatives and Laborers 159,896 158,015 0.99
Service Workers 137,862 149,661 1.09
Miscellaneous Occupations 3,416 13,703 4.01
Total 929,178 1,226,640 1.32
Source: Computations based on data from the U.S. Bureau of the Census
and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
The analysis also revealed relatively large labor surpluses in
each of the following categories: medical practitioners,
teachers, accountants, lawyers, librarians, social workers and
architects. Some workers with these skills presumably live on
Long island but work in New York City. By contrast, labor rela-
tions specialists, operations researchers, chemists, biologists
and mathematicians appeared to be in short supply on Long
Island. For example, approximately 4,900 personnel and labor
relations workers resided on Long Island and an estimated 5,700
were needed by Long Island firms.
Supply-Demand Relationships for Clerical and Sales
Workers. Labor supply generally exceeded demand in the
clerical and sales occupations. In 1980, about 2,300 advertising
agents and sales workers resided on Long Island while only
1,100 such workers were needed by Long Island employers.
Some 8,600 insurance agents and brokers resided on Long
Island but fewer than 6,500 were needed. Some 4,800 stock and
bond sales agents resided on Long Island but only 1,200 such
agents were needed by Long Island firms. Presumably, some
workers with these skills commuted to Manhattan jobs..There
was a much closer supply-demand balance for real estate
agents and brokers. Some 6,500 such agents and brokers resided
on Long Island and an estimated 6,300 were needed by Long
Island firms.
A similar oversupply of workers characterized many of the
clerical occupations. More than 51,000 secretaries resided on
Long Island; approximately 38,000 were needed. Some 12,400
office machine operators resided on Long Island; approximately
9,900 were needed. Approximately 26,000 bookkeepers, ac-
counting and auditing clerks resided on Long island; some
19,000 were needed by Long Island firms.
Supply-Demand Relationships for Craft Workers. The
supply-demand balance for selected craft occupations has a
direct bearing on the growth potential for defense-oriented and
high technology manufacturing on Long Island. These industries
require skilled craft workers. With the exception of construction
workers, there was a relatively close balance between occupa-
tional supply and demand in most of the skilled craft occupa-
tions. The market for skilled craft workers is more localized than
that for managerial or sales workers. That is, those craft workers
who live on Long Island are also more likely to be employed on
Long Island than those who possess managerial or sales skills.
In 1980, 10,400 metalworking craft workers resided on Long
Island; approximately 11,000 were needed by Long Island
employers. Approximately 34,000 mechanics, repairers and in-
stallers resided on Long Island; 32,700 were needed. There ap-
peared to be a shortage of workers in four occupational
categories: tool and die makers, heavy equipment mechanics,
household appliance mechanics, and blue-collar supervisors.
The most pronounced supply-demand imbalance among skilled
craft workers occurred in the construction trades. For example,
11,000 carpenters and carpenter apprentices resided on Long
Island and only 8,000 were needed. Approximately 7,100 electri-
cians and apprentices resided on Long Island and 4,700 were
needed. Some 5,100 plumbers, pipe fitters and apprentices
resided on Long Island and 3,100 were needed.
Supply-Demand Relationships for Operatives and Laborers.
It has been suggested that operatives and laborers are in short
supply within the Long Island labor force because bi-county liv-
22
Fig. 2,3
LABOR SUPPLY-DEMAND RATIOS FOR SELECTED
CLERICAL AND SALES OCCUPATIONS,*1980
NASSAU-SUFFOLK
*A ratio exceeding "one" indicates oversupply;
a ratio of less than one indicates undersupply.
23
Fig. 2.4
LABOR SUPPLY-DEMAND RATIOS FOR SELECTED
CRAFT OCCUPATIONS,* 1980
NASSAU-SUFFOLK
*A ratio exceeding "one" indicates oversupply;
a ratio of less than one indicates undersupply.
24
ing costs are too high to permit primary wage earners with these
skills to adequately support a family here. In 1980, there ap-
peared to be major shortages of semi-skilled metalworking
operatives including drill press operators, lathe and milling
machine operators and punch and stamping press operators. In
1980, fewer than 8,000 semi-skilled metalworking operatives
resided on Long Island and almost 12,000 were needed. There
were also apparent shortages of semi-skilled textile operators
and semi-skilled packers and inspectors. By contrast, there was
a surplus of assemblers. Approximately 16,000 assemblers
resided on Long Island; 12,000 were needed. There was also a
surplus of transportation operatives. Some 35,000 truck, bus,
and taxi drivers and other transportation operatives resided on
Long Island; only about 30,000 were needed.
Among laborers, stock handlers, freight and material handlers
appeared to be in short supply. However, there appeared to be a
surplus of construction laborers and gardeners.
The foregoing findings identify certain labor supply-demand
imbalances that should alert policymakers to impending prob-
lems. Most critical were apparent shortages of chemical, in-
dustrial and mechanical engineers, chemists, biologists and
skilled craft workers such as tool and die makers. These labor
supply bottlenecks could hobble the Long Island economy in its
quest to become a center for high-technology activity.
Aisc of concern are those occupations characterized by a
surplus of workers. In 1980, the supply of teachers for
kindergarten through grade 12 exceeded the demand for their
skills by about 50%. There was also an oversupply of clerical
workers including cashiers, file clerks, bank tellers, shipping and
receiving clerks. These are generally female-dominated occupa-
tions. It may be necessary to retrain women with these skills for
emerging jobs in technical support occupations. The current
surplus of construction craft workers and laborers is also of con-
cern. Unless residential construction rebounds strongly, high
rates of unemployment in the construction industry are likely to
continue.
Although these imbalances call for remedial action, it should
be noted that for most occupational groups, there is a relatively
good balance between labor supply and demand on Long Island.
Therefore, structural unemployment, which affects large urban
centers such as New York City, is unlikely to be a major problem
on Long Island.
WAGE COSTS VS. LABOR FORCE PRODUCTIVITY
Employers are sensitive to wage differentials within the same
metropolitan region because other competitive factors, such as
the availability of raw materials and the location of final markets
tend to be relatively similar. Therefore, Iow wages can be a major
competitive advantage, particularly if labor force productivity re-
mains high. This section analyzes comparative wage costs for
Nassau-Suffolk and nineteen other large metropolitan areas. It
also analyzes worker productivity, defined as value added per
dollar of wages, in each of these areas.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Sta-
tistics periodically surveys wages and salaries in selected oc-
cupations within major metropolitan areas. The latest bi-county
survey, conducted in August, 1982, showed that average weekly
earnings for selected clerical occupations ranged from a Iow of
$161.00 for file clerks to a high of $298.50 for secretaries. Within
the electronic data processing occupations, computer operators
earned $304.50 and computer systems analysts earned $565.50.
Drafters earned an average of $361.50 weekly and electronics
technicians had average weekly earnings of $339.50.
Within the blue-collar occupations, hourly earnings averaged
$10.38 for maintenance carpenters, $10.31 for maintenance
electricians, $10.41 for tool and die makers, $12.23 for sta-
tionary engineers, $10.84 for truck drivers, $6.68 for shippers
and receivers, $4.89 for guards and $5.04 for janitors, porters
and cleaners.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has developed indexes of
relative pay for twenty major metropolitan areas including
Nassau-Suffolk.1 They confirm that average Nassau-Suffolk
wage costs were well below those of the adjacent New York
metropolitan area and also below those of most other large
metropolitan areas. In 1981, pay levels for office clerical and
skilled maintenance workers on Long Island were the lowest of
the twenty metropolitan areas studied. Nassau-Suffolk also paid
below-average wages for unskilled plant workers. Of the occupa-
tions surveyed, data processing workers were the only major oc-
cupational group to receive above average wages on Long
Island. Long Island is therefore competitive with neighboring
New York City and with other large metropolitan areas in terms
of wage costs.
~ In constructing these indexes, average straight-time earnings in each area were
expressed as a percent of average earnings for all metropolitan areas combined.
25
Fig. 2.5
LABOR SUPPLY-DEMAND RATIOS FOR OPERATIVES
AND LABORERS,* 1980
NASSAU-SUFFOLK
*A ratio exceeding "one" indicates oversupply;
a ratio of less than one indicates undersupply.
26
TABLE 2.3
Earnings of Workers in Selected Occupations, August, 1982
Nassau-Suffolk
Clerical Occupations Mean Weekly Earnings
Secretaries $298.50
Stenographers 261.00
Typists 193.00
File Clerks 161.00
Messengers 173.50
Order Clerks 204.50
Accounting Clerks 231.00
Payroll Clerks 238.50
Key Entry Operators 226.50
Professional and Technical Occupations
Computer Systems Analysts (Business) 565.50
Computer Programmers (Business) 430.00
Computer Operators 304.50
Drafters 361.50
Electronics Technicians 339.50
Registered industrial Nurses 372.00
Blue-Collar Occupations Mean Hourly Earnings
Maintenance Carpenters $10.38
Maintenance Electricians 10.31
Maintenance Machinists 11.41
Maintenance Mechanics, Machinery 9.32
Tool and Die Makers 10.41
Stationary Engineers 12.23
Truckdrivers 10.84
Shippers and Receivers 6.68
Warehousemen 7.65
Material Handling Laborers 6.66
Guards 4.89
Janitors, Porters, Cleaners 5.04
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Comparative Worker Productivity. The most comprehe.nsive
information about worker productivity is available for workers in
the manufacturing sector. Value added per dollar of wages paid
is a commonly-used yardstick of worker productivity. In 1978, the
latest year for which such information is available, value added
per dollar of wages averaged $4.05 on Long Island, slightly
above the mean of $4.01 for the twenty metropolitan areas
studied. Productivity improvements on Long Island were
significantly greater than productivity improvements in other
iarge metropolitan areas. Betwen 1972 and 1978, value added
per dollar of wages in manufacturing increased from $3.31 to
$4.05 on Long Island. This was equivalent to an increase of
$22.4%. The mean productivity increase for the twenty metro-
politan areas studied was only 10.8%.
The foregoing analysis confirms that Nassau-Suffolk was
characterized by relatively iow wage costs and by above-
average and rapidly-improving worker productivity in manufac-
turing. This combination gives the Nassau-Suffolk labor market
area a decided competitive advantage.
LIVING COSTS
Relative living costs are also of importance to firms consider-
ing a possible Long Island location. The latest urban family
budget, prepared by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, provides
some indication of the differences in living costs between the
New York Metropolitan Region, which includes Nassau-Suffolk,
and those of other major urban areas.
In the Fall of 1981, an intermediate level or middle class
budget for a four-person family in the New York Metropolitan
Area was $29,540. This figure does not reflect how middle class
families actually spend their money but is predicated on certain
assumptions regarding the manner of living associated with a
middle-class lifestyle.
Thus, the New York Region, including Nassau-Suffolk, is a
high cost area. An intermediate level budget in the New York
Region was 12% above that of the Buffalo area, 20% above
Pittsburgh, 16% above Chicago, 10% above Milwaukee, 27%
above Atlanta and 19% above Denver. Personal income taxes,
which averaged $6,586 in the New York Region, were 13%
27
Fig, 2.6
RELATIVE PAY LEVELS 1981
NASSAU-SUFFOLK VS. SELECTED SMSA's
(Average Pay in 262 SMSA's =100)
Fig. 2.7
PERCENT CHANGE IN VALUE ADDED PER DOLLAR OF WAGES
NASSAU-SUFFOLK VS. SELECTED SMSA's
1972-78
Fig, 2.8
ANNUAL COSTS OF AN INTERMEDIATE BUDGET FOR A
FOUR-PERSON FAMILY, AUTUMN, 1981
NEW YORK REGION VS. SELECTED SMSAs
New York,
Northeastern N~J.*
Cleveland, OH.
Denver, CO.
Pittsburgh, PA.
Atlanta, GA. Dallas, TX,
*Includes Nassau-Suffolk
29
higher than comparable taxes in the Boston area, 28% above
those in the Philadelphia area, 61% above those in the Chicago
area, 75% above those in the Atlanta area and 60% above those
in the Denver area. Although conventional economic theory sug-
gests that above-average living costs are ultimately reflected in
above-average wages, this has not occurred in Nassau-Suffolk.
Therefore, high living costs, in and of themselves, are not a
major barrier to bi-county economic development.
3O
Chapter 3....
A Profile of Jobs
31
This chapter analyzes the changing industry mix of employ-
ment on Long Island during the 1970s.
Nassau-Suffolk experienced strong job growth during the
1970s despite the fact that most northern states, including New
York State, were characterized by net employment losses. Long
Island was one of the few northern labor markets to run counter
to the general shift of jobs from frostbelt to sunbelt. This has led
some to describe Long Island as the sunbelt of the northeast.
EMPLOYMENT GROWTH, 1970-80
Nassau and Suffolk Counties gained approximately 213,000
jobs between 1970 and 1980. Almost 179,000, or 84%, were
private-sector jobs. Most new private sector jobs occurred in one
of three industries: trade, finance, and services. As a result of the
growing service orientation of the Long Island economy, the
share of private employment accounted for by the leading goods-
producing industries, manufacturing and construction, declined
from 33.7% in 1970 to 28.3% in 1980. Manufacturing never-
theless remained a significant bi-county industry. In 1980, it ac-
counted for some 178,000 jobs, or about 24% of all private sec-
tor jobs. Unlike New York City and New York State, which lost
large numbers of manufacturing jobs, Nassau-Suffolk gained
almost 20,000 manufacturing jobs during the 1970s.
Those industries that posted the largest net employment gains
on Long Island during the 1970s, generally grew rapidly through-
out the nation. For example, 84% of bi-county manufacturing
growth occured in six industries: lumber and wood products,
printing and publishing, rubber and plastics, fabricated metals,
non-electrical machinery and instruments. Nationally, each of
these industries grew at rates well in excess of the 7% overall
growth rate for manufacturing. Employment in instruments grew
by 59% nationally during the 1970-80 period; the national growth
rates for rubber and plastics and non-electrioal machinery were
38% and 25% respectively.
During the 1970s, Nassau-Suffolk gained almost 25,000 retail
jobs, primarily in two rapidly-growing national market industries:
eating and drinking places and miscellaneous retailers. The latter
TABLE 3.1
The Changing Industry Mix of Employment
on Long Island, 1970-80
(number o! jobs)
Employment
Industry 1970 1980 Net Change
Private-Sector
Agriculture 2,999 4,245 + 1,246
Mining 539 359 - 180
Contract Construction 34,279 34,824 + 545
Manufacturing 158,422 177,574 + 19,152
Transportation, Communications,
Utilities 32,260 38,858 + 6,598
Wholesale Trade 39,038 66,061 + 27,023
Retail Trade 146,904 170,315 + 23,411
Finance, Insurance,
Real Estate 35,017 57,127 + 22,110
Services 120,686 194,904 + 74,218
Non-Classified 2,021 6,511 + 4,490
Total Private Sector 572,165 750,778 + 178,613
Employment
Government
Federal 15,200 19,100 + 3,900
State 24,000 28,900 + 4,900
Local 104,900 130,400 + 25,500
Total Government 144,100 178,400 + 34,300
TOTAL EMPLOYMENT 716,265 929,178 + 212,913
Note: Excludes self-employed persons and unpaid family workers.
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census and New York State Labor
Department.
category includes discount outlets, flea markets and other off-
price merchandisers. Retail employment expanded by 36% na-
tionally between 1970 and 1980. However, employment in eating
and drinking places and in miscellaneous retail establishments
grew by 84% and 58% respectively. During the 1970s, Long
island gained almost 75,000 service jobs, two-thirds of them in
business and health services. The national rates of employment
growth in these industries were 84% and 81% respectively.
The analysis suggests that the strong growth of jobs on Long
Island during the 1970s reflected the ability of the bi-county
economy to attract jobs in rapidly-growing national market in-
dustries. In effect, the Long Island economy was characterized
by a fast-growing or favorable industry mix of employment.
Employment changes during the 1970s gave Long Island a
solid base of high-technology industries that can serve as a spur
for future growth. A recent report prepared for the New York
State Science and Technology Foundation identified twenty man-
ufacturing industries as the most desirable high-technology in-
dustries for New York State? The report concluded that these in-
dustries offer the best potential for employment growth, given
the current competitive position of New York State and that of its
various labor markets. The designated industries include elec-
tronic computing equipment, semi-conductors, photographic
equipment and supplies, optical instruments and lenses, radio
and T.V. communications equipment, and industrial controls. In
1980, Long Island already had some employment in most of
these industries, accounting for approximately 20% of the bi-
county manufacturing base.
Employment Growth, 1970-75 vs. 1975-80. The Long Island
economy gained strength during the latter r~alf of the 1970s.
Whereas Nassau-Suffolk gained 80,000 jobs between 1970 and
1975, almost 133,000 jobs were created between 1975 and
1980. The growth of government jobs accounted for 27% of bi-
county employment growth between 1970 and 1975 and for only
9% of employment growth during the 1975-80 period.
~ Battelle Columbus Laboratories, Development of High Technology Industries in
New York State, Summary Report (Columbus, Ohio, April, 1982)
32
Fig. 3.1
THE CHANGING INDUSTRY MIX OF
PRIVATE SECTOR JOBS, NASSAU-SUFFOLK
(Percent Distribution)
Fig. 3.2
THE DOMINANT LONG ISLAND GROWTH INDUSTRIES
1970-80
Other
Finance.
Insurance,
Real Estate
Wholesale
Trade
Retail
Trade
Services
Manufacturing
~¢c,~ ¢. 2~192 2,367 1,854 4,551 4,236
Total Growth: 19,152 jobs
"~:"~' 13,693 ~ 4,832
Total Growth: 23,411 jobs
,~,c~¢~,;~, 24,463 23,290
Total Growth: 74,218 jobs
33
TABLE 3.2
Employment in Selected High.Technology Manufacturing Industries, 1980
Nassau-Suffolk vs. New York State
Industry
Code
Industry Description
New York
Nassau Suffolk State
3573
3674
3861
3652
3832
3841
3693
3823
3824
2831
3662
3569
3829
2833
2869
2879
3769
3822
3622
3678
Electronic Computing Equipment
Semi-Conductors
Phonographic Equipment & Supplies
Photographic Records, Video Discs
Optical Instruments & Lenses
Surgical & Medical Instruments
X-ray Apparatus, Electro-Medical Equip.
Process Control Instruments
Fluid Meters & Counting Devices
Biological Products
Radio & TV Communications Equip.
General Industry Machinery, NEC
Measuring & Controlling Devices, NEC
Medicinals & Botanicals
industrial Organic Chemicals, NEC
Agricultural Chemicals, NEC
Missile & Space Vehicle Parts, NEC
Environmental Controls
Industrial Controls
Electronic Connectors Total
Total Manufacturing Employment
% in Selected "Hi-Tech" Industries
1,134 1,750 25,241
750 1,156 14,661
1,232 848 60,519
488 375 2,201
256 258 4,488
572 977 7,951
0 175 1,308
541 175 4,858
0 0 N,A,
269 511 711
8,462 10,510 48,181
195 299 4,934
3,018 653 3,131
319 60 1,750
0 6O 4,058
0 0 641
0 0 1,750
0 175 809
60 175 3,264
375 0 6,785
17,671 18,157 197,241
89,540 88,034 1,537,884
19.7% 20.6% 12.8%
N.A.--Not Available
Source: Battele Columbus Laboratories & County Business Patterns.
The private-sector resurgence after 1975 benefitted most ma-
jor industries. Long Island lost 8,300 manufacturing jobs be-
tween 1970 and 1975. However, 27,000 manufacturing jobs
were added between 1975 and 1980. Retail jobs increased by
5,100 between 1970 and 1975; an additional 18,000 retail jobs
were added between 1975 and 1980. Service jobs grew by
32,000 between 1970 and 1975 and by 42,000 jobs during the
1975-80 period. These statistics confirm that the Long Island
economy rebounded strongly from the 1974-75 national reces-
sion. The strength of this recovery generated the momentum
which helped to insulate Long Island from the 1980 and 1981-82
national recessions.
34
Fig. 3.3
NET CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY,
NASSAU-SUFFOLK
1970-75 versus 1975-1980
Fig. 3.4
GROWTH OF PRIVATE SECTOR VS, GOVERNMENT JOBS
NASSAU-SUFFOLK
1970-75 rs, 1975-80
1970-75 1975-80
35
Employment Growth, Nassau vs. Suffolk County. Nassau
and Suffolk counties differed from each other in terms of the direc-
tion of job growth during the 1970s. Between 1970 and 1980,
private sector employment in Nassau increased by 56,500 jobs or
14%. Employment growth in Suffolk was more rapid. During the
1970s, private-sector employment in Suffolk increased by 122,000
jobs or 69%. Job growth generally lags population growth by
about a decade. The rapid growth of jobs in Suffolk during the
1970s represented a catch-up adjustment to the County's robust
population growth of the 1960s.
Between 1970 and 1980, blue-collar jobs shifted from Nassau
to Suffolk. During this period, Nassau lost 16,000 manufacturing
jobs and Suffolk gained about 35,000. By 1980, manufacturing
jobs were almost equally divided between Nassau and Suffolk.
However, manufacturing jobs were proportionately more impor-
tant to Suffolk's economy. In 1980, manufacturing jobs accounted
for more than 29% of all private-sector jobs in Suffolk but for less
than 20% of the total in Nassau.
During the 1970s, Nassau's economy became increasingly
dominated by white-collar jobs in finance and services. Nassau's
net gain of 56,000 financial and service jobs accounted for almost
all new job growth in the County between 1970 and 1980. As of
1980, Nassau contained 2.5 times as many jobs in finance, in-
surance and real estate as Suffolk: 40,600 versus 16,500. Nassau
also contained 1.9 times as many service jobs as Suffolk: 127,400
versus 67,500.
PAYROLLS, BY INDUSTRY
It is apparent from the foregoing analysis that Long Island, like
the nation, moved toward a service-based economy during the
1970s. However, the gain of a service job cannot offset the loss
of a manufacturing job because service jobs generally pay less
than manufacturing jobs and because part-time employment is
proportionately greater in the service sector than in manufactur-
ing. At issue is the question of employment quality.
The size of the payroll generated by each industry is one in-
dicator of employment quality. Payroll statistics indicate that
manufacturing is more significant to the Long Island economy
than the employment figures indicate. Manufacturing accounted
for 25% of Nassau payrolls and 35% of Suffolk payrolls. Man-
ufacturing accounted for less than 20% of Nassau jobs and for
36
about 29% of Suffolk jobs. Payroll statistics also indicate that the
service and retail sectors are somewhat less important to the
Long Island economy than the employment statistics suggest. In
1980, retail employment accounted for almost 23% of total
employment in both counties but for less than 15% of total
payrolls.
In 1980, payrolls per employee in Nassau averaged $18,147 in
construction, $17,682 in manufacturing, $18,593 in transporta-
tion, communications and utilities, $8,714 in retail trade and
$12,791 in the service industries. There were similar interin-
dustry differences in Suffolk. These figures confirm that the
manufacturing sector pays significantly higher wages than either
the trade or service sectors.
An analysis of payrolls per employee in specific industries pro-
vides additional evidence of the wage gap between manufactur-
ing, retail, and service jobs. In 1980, payrolls per employee
averaged $26,411 in aircraft and parts and $16,186 in electronic
equipment. By contrast, payrolls per employee averaged $7,317
in bi-county department stores, $8,545 in food stores and $5,990
in eating and drinking establishments.
TABLE 3.3
Total Payrolls, by Industry, 1980
Nassau and Suffolk Counties
(SO00)
Industry Nassau Suffolk
Agriculture 30,436 22,399
Mining 5,645 2,788
Contract Construction 372,253 235,659
Manufacturing 1,583,209 1,387,252
Transportation, Communications, Utilities 426,664 256,012
Wholesale Trade 787,023 397,528
Retail Trade 892,569 592,215
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate 601,642 239,344
Services 1,629,553 820,211
Non-Classified 53,517 30,583
Total Private Sector Payrolls 6,382,511 3,983,991
Source: County Business Patterns
Industry
Contract
Construction
Fig. 3.5
EMPLOYMENT, BY INDUSTRY, 1980
NASSAU VS. SUFFOLK
Total Private Em ........ Nassau: 451,667 jobs
~, uy..~ut. Suffolk: 299,111 jobs
Fig. 3.6
NET CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT, 1970-80
NASSAU VS. SUFFOLK
Manufacturin
Wholesale
Trade
Retail
Trade
Finance,
insurance,
Real Estate
Services
37
Other
Finance,
Insurance,
Real Estate
Retail
Trade
Wholesale
Trade
Services
Manufacturing
Fig. 3.7
EMPLOYMENT VS. PAYROLLS, 1980
NASSAU-SUFFOLK
(Percent Distribution)
Other
Finance,
Insurance,
Real Estate
Retail
Trade
Wholesale
Trade
Services
Manufacturing
Payrotls
Employment
Payrolls
Employment
38
Industry
Agriculture
Fig. 3.8
PAYROLLS PER EMPLOYEE, BY INDUSTRY
NASSAU-SUFFOLK, 1980
Contract
Construction
Manufacturing
Transportation,
Communications,
Utilities
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Finance.
Insurance,
Real Estate
Services
39
Fig. 3.9
DISTRIBUTION OF ESTABLISHMENTS
BY EMPLOYMENT SIZE
NASSAU-SUFFOLK
1980
Fig. 3.10
PERCENT OF FIRMS EMPLOYING I to 4 WORKERS
BY INDUSTRY, 1980
NASSAU-SUFFOLK
i~dustry
20 or more
employees
10-19
employees
5to9
employees
1 to4
employees
Agriculture
Construction
Manufacturim
Retail Trade
Finance
Services
NASSAU SUFFOLK
4O
Long Island's manufacturing sector, particularly its major
defense industries, remain vital to the Long Island economy. The
loss of a job in the aircraft industry would require the addition of
3.6 department store jobs, 4.4 jobs in eating and drinking places,
3.6 jobs in personal services, 1.8 jobs in health services or 2.1
jobs in banking to inject the same dollar value of payrolls into the
economy.
SIZE OF FIRM, BY INDUSTRY
The Long Island economy is dominated by small firms. Such
firms tend to be undercapitalized and often have difficulty in
gaining access to needed working capital. They are therefore
most prone to business failure.
In 1980, 61% of all bi-county establishments employed be-
tween one and four workers. Average size of firm varied by in-
dustry. Manufacturing establishments were generally largest in
size. Only one-third of all bi-county manufacturing estab-
lishments employed between one and four workers as compared
with two-thirds of those in finance, insurance and real estate and
in the service industries. Therefore, the gradual transition to a
service-based economy during the 1970s may have introduced
an element of instability into the bi-county economy by causing a
concomitant shift to smaller, less financially stable firms.
Given the dominance of small firms on Long Island, a mech-
anism to help such firms gain access to fixed and working capital
at affordable rates should be an important element of an
economic development plan for Long island.
41
Chapter 4....
Manufacturing Jobs
A dynamic manufacturing sector is essential to the preserva-
tion of a sound economic base on Long Island. Long Island will
reach its full potential for industrial development only if manufac-
turers continue to regard Long Island as a desirable site for their
operations. This chapter analyzes Long Island's competitive
position for individual manufacturing industries. Value added per
dollar of wages is the yardstick used to measure competitive
position. It is a proxy for the productivity of Long Island's
workforce. This information has been compiled from data in the
1977 Census of Manufactures. This census provides the latest
detailed analysis of manufacturing activity in the nation and its
submarkets. The absence of more recent data is not a serious
constraint because productive relationships in manufacturing
are slow to change over time.
THE INDUSTRY MIX OF MANUFACTURING JOBS
The industry mix of manufacturing jobs influences the overall
level of worker productivity. For example, industries such as
chemicals tend to be capital intensive and output per worker is
comensurately high. By contrast, apparel and textiles use less
capital per worker and are Iow-wage, Iow-productivity industries.
in 1980, Nassau-Suffolk contained almost 178,000 manufac-
turing jobs of which 117,900, or two-thirds, were in durables or
hard-goods industries and almost 57,000 were in non-durables or
soft-goods industries. The largest durable goods industries were
electric and electronic equipment (38,751 jobs) and transporta-
tion equipment, which consists largely of aircraft and aerospace
manufacturing (30,050 jobs). The largest non-durable industries
were printing and publishing (13,736 jobs) and apparel and tex-
tiles (9,443 jobs).
COMPETITIVE POSITION:
LONG ISLAND VS. NEW YORK STATE
Nassau-Suffolk's competitive position relative to that of New
York State provides some indication of the long-run potential for
industrial development on Long Island. As of 1977, value added
43
Fig. 4.1
PERCENT DISTRIBUTION OF MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT, 1980
DURABLES VS. NON-DURABLES INDUSTRIES
NASSAU-SUFFOLK
44
TABLE 4.1
industry
Code
The Industry Mix of Manufacturing Employment, 1980
Nassau-Suffolk
Employment
Industry
Description Nassau Suffolk Bi. County
24
25
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
Durables
Lumber and Wood Products
Furniture and Fixtures
Stone, Clay & Glass Products
Primary Metal industries
Fabricated Metal Products
Machinery, except Electrical
Electric and Electronic Equipment
Transportation Equipment
Instruments and Related Products
60,675 57,228 117,903
855 947 1,802
1,283 1,109 2,392
569 1,156 1,725
1,263 1,193 2,456
7,643 7,223 14,866
6,127 8,080 14,207
16,657 22,094 38,751
19,204 10,846 30,050
7,074 4,580 11,654
20
22
23
26
27
28
30
31
39
Non. Durables
Food and Kindred Products
Textile Mill Products
Apparel and Other Textiles
Paper and Allied Products
Printing and Publishing
Chemicals & Allied Products
Rubber and Plastics
Leather and Leather Products
Miscellaneous Manufacturing
Administrative and Auxiliary
Total Manufacturing Employment
27,118 29,617 56,735
1,137 3,947 5,084
1,318 1,554 2,872
4,228 5,215 9,443
3,297 1,898 5,195
6,970 6,766 13,736
3,870 3,868 7,738
3,291 3,815 7,106
221 537 758
2,786 2,017 4,803
1,747 1,189 2,936
89,540 88,034 177,574
Source: County Business Patterns
per dollar of wages on Long Island exceeded value added per
dollar of wages statewide in each of the following industries: fur-
niture, paper, chemicals, plastics, primary and fabricated metals
and miscellaneous manufacturing. In effect, bi-county manufac-
turers were more competitive than manufacturers statewide in
each of these industries. However, bi-county manufacturers were
less competitive in food, textiles, apparel, printing and publishing,
electrical and non-electrical machinery and instruments.
45
TABLE 4.2
Value Added Per Dollar of Wages, 1977
Nassau-Suffolk vs. New York State
Industry
Code
Industry Description
Value Added Per
Dollar of Wages, 1977
Nassau-Suffolk New York State
20 Food and Kindred Products $ 4.82 $ 5.48
22 Textile Mill Products 2.47 2.63
23 Apparel and Textiles 2.54 3.29
25 Furniture and Fixtures 2.98 2.63
26 Paper and Allied Products 3.17 2.94
27 Printing and Publishing 4.28 6.86
28 Chemicals & Allied Products 11.76 7.90
30 Rubber and Plastics 3.39 3.31
33 Primary Metal Industries 3.31 2.54
34 Fabricated Metal Products 3.04 3.00
35 Machinery, except Electrical 3.90 4.11
36 Electric and Electronic Equipment 3~78 4.54
38 Instruments and Related Products 4.94 7.21
39 Miscellaneous Manufacturing 3.69 3.61
All Manufacturing Industries
3.97 4.25
Source: Computations based on Census Bureau data.
COMPETITIVE POSITION: DURABLES INDUSTRIES
Five durables or hard goods industries are well-represented
on Long Island: primary metals, fabricated metals, electric and
electronic equipment, non-electrical machinery, and in-
struments. Electric and electronic equipment is the largest of
these industries. It consists of establishments that manufacture
machinery, apparatus and supplies for the generation, storage,
transmission, transformation and utilization of electrical energy.
This industry is concentrated in Nassau-Suffolk and Westchester
Counties and in the states of California, Illinois, New Jersey,
Massachusetts and Texas. Value added per dollar of wages
averaged only $3.79 on Long Island. This was below comparable
ratios for Westchester County and most other states studied. On
Long Island, the ratio of value added-to-wages was $3.81 for the
communications equipment segment of the industry and $3.51
for the electronic components segment. In communications
equipment, this ratio averaged $4.78 in California and $4.35 in il-
linois. In electronic components, this ratio averaged $4.29 in
California, $3.67 in Texas but only $2.81 in Illinois. The statistics
suggest that Long Island was only moderately competitive with
other producing areas in this industry despite the fact that the
electrical and electronic equipment industry employed almost
39,000 workers and accounted for 22 % of bi-county manufactur-
ing jobs and almost 33% of durables manufacturing jobs in
1980. Lagging bi-county productivity in this industry may reflect
lagging capital investment. In 1977, electronic manufacturers in
California invested 1.7 times as much as those on Long Island in
capital equipment. Texas manufacturers in this industry invested
2.4 times as much as their Long Island counterparts. New and
more modern capital equipment is associated with higher worker
productivity.
The fabricated metals industry includes establishments that
fabricate ferrous and non-ferrous metal products such as metal
cans, tinware, hand tools, cutlery, general hardware and metal
stampings. The industry is concentrated on Long Island, in
Bergen County, New Jersey, and in the states of California, Il-
linois, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas. In 1977, bi-
county value added per dollar of wages averaged $3.03 for the
industry as a whole, $2.75 for the structural rnetal products com-
ponent and $2.71 for the metal forgings and stampings compo-
nent. Long Island was generally not competitive with other pro-
ducing areas for this group of industries. For example, the coeffi-
cient of value added-to-wages for the industry as a whole was
$3.38 in California, $3.39 in Texas, $3.30 in Ohio and $3.71 in
Bergen County, New Jersey.
The non-electrical machinery industry includes establish-
ments that manufacture machinery powered by built-in or de-
tachable motors. The industry is concentrated on Long Island, in
Union and Bergen Counties, New Jersey and in the states of
46
Fig. 4.2
VALUE ADDED PER DOLLAR OF WAGES, 1977
NASSAU-SUFFOLK VS. SELECTED AREAS
ELECTRIC AND ELECTRONIC EQUIPMENT
Fig. 4.3
VALUE ADDED PER DOLLAR OF WAGES, 1977
NASSAU-SUFFOLK VS. SELECTED AREAS
FABRICATED METAL PRODUCTS
Nassau,Suffolk
Westchester
NY
California
Texas
Nassau-Suffolk
Bergen, N,J.
California
Texas
Nassau-Suffolk
Westchester
N.Y.
California
Illin
Nassau-Suffolk
Bergem N.J.
California
Illinois
Nassau-Suffolk
Californh
Illinois
Texas
Nassau-Suffolk
Bergen,
Californi~
Texas
47
California, Indiana, Illinois, Massachusetts, Michigan, Ohio,
Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin. In 1977, the bi-county coef-
ficient of value added to wages averaged $3.89 for the industry
as a whole. This level of productivity was surpassed only by
manufacturers in California ($4.38) and Texas ($4.27). Long
Island was also highly competitive for the various sub-industries
within non-electrical equipment. In metalworking machinery, the
coefficient of value added-to-wages averaged $3.87, well above
that for any other area studied. In special industry machinery,
this coefficient was $3.98, higher than that for any area studied
except Massachusetts ($4.08) and Texas ($4.28). In general in-
dustry machinery, bi-county value added per dollar of wages
averaged $4.76, above that for any area studied.
Scientific and technical instruments includes manufacturers
of instruments for measuring, testing, analyzing and controlling.
They include optical instruments and lenses, surveying and draft-
lng instruments, surgical, medical and dental instruments and
ophthalmic goods. The industry is concentrated on Long Island,
in Bergen County, New Jersey, and in the states of California, I1-
linois, Massachusetts, New Jersey and Pennsylvania. In 1977,
the bi-county coefficient of value added-to-wages for the industry
as a whole was $4.94, higher than that of any state studied ex-
cept New Jersey. Long Island manufacturers were also highly
competitive in the production of measuring and controlling
devices and medical instruments. In 1977, bi-county value added
per dollar of wages was $4.94 in measuring and controlling
devices and $4.87 in medical instruments.
The primary metals industry includes establishments engaged
in the smelting and refining of ferrous and non-ferrous metals, in
the drawing and alloying of ferrous and non-ferrous metals and in
the manufacture of metal castings, nails, spikes, and insulated
wire and cable. The industry is concentrated on Long Island, in
Essex and Union Counties, New Jersey and in the states of
Alabama, California, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio and Penn-
sylvania. Long Island manufacturers were highly competitive
with their counterparts elsewhere in this industry. The bi-county
coefficient of value added-to-wages for the industry as a whole
was $3.31; its coefficient for the non-ferrous rolling and drawing
segment of the industry was $4.01. These coefficients were ex-
ceeded only by manufacturers in Union County, New Jersey.
The foregoing analysis suggests that bi-county durables goods
manufacturers were highly competitive with their counterparts
elsewhere in non-electrical machinery, instruments, and primary
metals. They were less competitive in terms of the fabricated
metals and electronic equipment industries.
Government-Oriented Production. A significant proportion of
Long Island's manufacturing output is destined for various Federal
agencies. The scope and volume of such production indicates the
economic importance of Long Island's defense sector.
The Census Bureau periodically reports on employment levels
and value of production in those metropolitan areas that
specialize in government-oriented production. The latest such in-
formation is available for calendar year 1979. In 1979, Long
Island employed 78,700 workers, 46% of the manufacturing
workforce, in ninety-two designated government-oriented in-
dustries. However, most government-oriented employment was
concentrated in two industries: aircraft and parts (SIC 3721) and
radio and T.V. communications equipment (SIC 3662). Collective-
ly, these industries provided 43,000 jobs and accounted for 55 %
of total employment in the government-oriented industries.
The value of bi-county government-oriented production was
$4,716.6 million in 1979. Approximately 45% of Long Island's
output in the government-oriented industries was actually sold to
the Federal government in 1979 and some 35,500 bi-county
workers were employed in production destined for the various
Federal agencies. Of these, 32,200 were involved in production
for the Department of Defense.
It is possible to evaluate Long Island's relative com-
petitiveness in the government-oriented industries by comparing
value-added per employee with value added in those metro-
politan areas that also specialize in government-oriented produc-
rich. Long Island's coefficient of value-added per employee in
the government-oriented industries was $33,545 in 1979. This
compares with coefficients of $30,318 in Nashua, N.H., $36,039
in Hartford, CT., $34,568 in Wichita, KS., $36,117 in Atlanta, GA.,
$60,070 in Houston, TX., $41,334 in Los Angeles, CA. and
$26,532 in Anaheim, CA. Long Island was generally competitive
with other northeastern metropolitan areas in terms of this
measure but was somewhat less competitive with southern and
western SMSAs, such as Atlanta, Houston and Los Angeles.
48
Fig. 4,4
VALUE ADDED PER DOLLAR OF WAGES, 1977
NASSAU-SUFFOLK VS. SELECTED AREAS
NON-ELECTRICAL MACHINERY
$4.OO
$2,00
49
Fig. 4.5
VALUE ADDED PER DOLLAR OF WAGES, 1977
NASSAU-SUFFOLK VS. SELECTED AREAS
INSTRUMENTS AND RELATED PRODUCTS
Fig. 4.6
VALUE ADDED PER DOLLAR OF WAGES, 1977
NASSAU-SUFFOLK VS. SELECTED AREAS
PRIMARY METAL INDUSTRIES
Nassau-S[~ffelk
Essex, NJ,
California
New Jersey
Nassau-Suffolk
Essex, N.J.
California
New Jersey
Nassau-Suffolk
Essex. N.J.
California
New Jersey
Nassau-Suffolk
Essex, N.J.
California
Illinois
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Nassau-Suffolk
Essex, N.J.
California
Illinois
Ohio
Pennsylvania
5O
Fig. 4.7
EMPLOYMENT GENERATED BY SALES
TO THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT, 1979
NASSAU-SUFFOLK
Fig. 4.8
VALUE OF SHIPMENTS GENERATED BY SALES
TO THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT, 1979
NASSAU-SUFFOLK
Total Government-Oriented Employment = 78,700
Generated by Sales to the Federal Government = 35 500
Total Government-Oriented Value of Shipments = $4~7 billion
Generated by Sales to the Federal Government = $2.1 billion
51
Fig. 4.9
EMPLOYMENT AND VALUE-ADDED PER EMPLOYEE IN
GOVERNMENT-ORIENTED INDUSTRIES, 1979
NASSAU-SUFFOLK VS. SELECTED METROPOUTAN AREAS
Employment (thousands of jobs)
Nassau- Suffolk
Nashua, N.H,
Hartford, Conn.
Syracuse~ N.Y.
Wichita. Kan.
Baltimore, Md.
Atlanta, Ga.
Dallas, Tx,
Houston, Tx.
Phoenix, Az.
Seattle, Wash.
Anaheim, Ca.
Los Angeles, Ca.
San Jose, Ca.
100,000
Value Added Per Employee ($)
$20,000 $40,000 $60,000
52
COMPETITIVE POSITION: NON-DURABLE INDUSTRIES
Several non-durable or soft goods industries are well
represented on Long Island. They include printing and pub-
lishing, paper and allied products, apparel, textiles, food,
chemicals and rubber and plastics. This section evaluates Long
Island's competitive position for each of these industries vis-a-
vis other producing areas.
Printing and publishing is the largest of the bi-county non-
durables industries. In 1980, this industry employed almost
14,000 workers on Long Island. The industry includes estab-
lishments engaged in printing by one of the more common pro-
cesses, such as letterpress and lithography, and those
establishments that perform services for the printing trade, such
as bookbinding and typesetting. It also includes establishments
that publish newspapers, books and periodicals, regardless of
whether or not they do their own printing. This industry is con-
centrated in New York State, California and Illinois. In 1977, bi-
county value added per dollar of wages averaged $4.28 for the
printing industry as a whole, $9.22 for the.newspaper publishing
segment of the industry, $6.59 for book publishing and $2.80 for
commercial printing. Long Island outperformed nearby counties
and other states in terms of worker output in newspaper pub-
lishing. It was also competitive with other states in the commer-
cial printing industry. For example, 1977 value added per dollar
of wages averaged only $3.15 in Manhattan, $5.00 in the State of
Connecticut, $5.75 in Massachusets and $5.85 in California in
newspaper publishing.
Paper and allied products includes firms that manufacture
pulp from wood and other cellulose fibers and those that
manufacture paper and paper board, paper bags, paper boxes
and envelopes. The industry is concentrated in the states of
California, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and New York.
Nassau-Suffolk was generally not competitive with other states
in this industry. In 1977, value added per dollar of wages in paper
and allied products averaged $3.17 on Long Island as compared
with $3.52 in Bergen County, New Jersey, $3.40 in California,
$3.41 in Georgia, $2.97 in Ohio, $3.58 in Pennsylvania and $3.62
in Wisconsin. The coefficient of value added-to-wages on Long
Island averaged $3.52 in the converted paperboard products
segment of the industry and $2.74 for firms that manufacture
paperboard containers. This was also generally below com-
parable coefficients for other producing areas.
Apparel and textiles include establishments that manufacture
fibers, yarns and knit apparel and those that produce clothing
and fabricated products. Collectively, these industries employed
more than 12,000 persons on Long Island in 1980. The apparel
industry is concentrated in New York City and in the states of
Alabama, North and South Carolina, California, Georgia, Penn-
sylvania and Massachusetts. In 1977, bi-county value added per
dollar of wages averaged $2.54 in apparel and $2.47 in textiles.
Long Island apparel manufacturers were competitive with those
located in Alabama, North and South Carolina and Pennsylvania.
However, bi-county textile manufacturers were somewhat less
competitive with those located in southern states. For example,
the coefficient of value added to wages in the textile industry was
$2.96 in Georgia and $2.81 in Virginia.
The food industry includes establishments that manufacture
or process food and beverages for human consumption and cer-
tain related products such as chewing gum, fats and oils. The in-
dustry employed about 5,000 persons on Long Island in 1980. It
is concentrated in New York City and in the states of California,
Texas, Illinois and Ohio. Bi-county value added per dollar of
wages averaged $4.83 in 1977 as compared with $6.03 in adja-
cent Queens County, $4.64 in California, $5.23 in Texas, $4.97 in
Illinois and $5.37 in Ohio.
The chemical industry includes establishments that produce
basic chemicals and those that utilize chemical processes in
manufacturing. The chemical industry employed almost 8,000
workers on Long Island in 1980. The industry is concentrated in
the states of New Jersey, Texas, Illinois, California, Ohio, Penn-
sylvania and Tennessee. In 1977, Long Island manufacturers
were generally competitive with their counterparts in these
states for the industry as a whole. For example, value added per
dollar of wages averaged $11.76 on Long Island as compared
with $10.31 in Texas, $8.47 in Illinois $7.77 in California, $8.31 in
Ohio, and $5.16 in Tennessee. Within the chemical industry,
Long Island was more highly competitive for soaps and cleaners
than for drugs. The bi-county coefficeint of value added-to-wages
was $14.31 for soaps and cleaners as compared with St 1.98 in
Union County, New Jersey, $11.27 in Texas, $8.71 in California,
53
Fig. 4.10
VALUE ADDED PER DOLLAR OF WAGES, 1977
NASSAU-SUFFOLK VS. SELECTED AREAS
PRINTING AND PUBLISHING
Fig. 4.11
VALUE ADDED PER DOLLAR OF WAGES, 1977
NASSAU-SUFFOLK VS. SELECTED AREAS
PAPER AND ALLIED PRODUCTS
Nassau-Su'Cfo~k
Bergen, N.J.
Connecticut
Massachusetts
California
Nassau-Suffolk
Bergen, N.J.
California
Massachusetts
Wisconsin
Nassau-Suffoli<
Bergen, N.J.
Connecticut
Massachusetts
California
Nassau-Suffolk
Bergen, N.J.
California
Massachusetts
Wisconsin
Nassau~Sufiotk
Bergen, N.J.
Connecticut
Massachusetts
California
Nassau-Suffolk
Bergen, N.J.
California
Massachusetts
Wisconsin
54
Fig. 4.12
VALUE ADDED PER DOLLAR OF WAGES, 1977
NASSAU-SUFFOLK VS. SELECTED AREAS
APPAREL AND TEXTILES
Appare~
Nassau-Suffolk
New York, N,Y,
Alabama
No. Carolina
Georgia
Virginia
Nassau-Suffolk
Kings, N.Y.
Alabama
No. Carolina
Georgia
Virginia
Textiles
Fig. 4.13
VALUE ADDED PER DOLLAR OF WAGES, 1977
NASSAU-SUFFOLK VS. SELECTED AREAS
THE FOOD INDUSTRY
Nassau-Suffolk
Queens, N.Y.
Kings, N.Y.
California
Texas
illinois
Ohio
55
Fig. 4.14
VALUE ADDED PER DOLLAR OF WAGES, 1977
NASSAU-SUFFOLK VS. SELECTED AREAS
CHEMICALS AND ALLIED PRODUCTS
Fig. 4.15
VALUE ADDED PER DOLLAR OF WAGES, 1977
NASSAU-SUFFOLK VS. SELECTED AREAS
RUBBER AND PLASTICS
Nass~u~Suf~olk
Union, N.J.
California
Ohio
Union, N.J.
California
Ohio
Nassau-Suffolk(
Union, N.J.
California
Ohio
N~ssau-Suf~'olk
Kings, N.Y.
Connecticut
Illinois
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Kings, N.Y.
Connecticut
Illinois
Minnesota
Wisconsin
56
$7.99 in Pennsylvania and $11.76 in Tennessee. The comparable
coefficient for the drug industry was $9.35 on Long Island as
compared with $12.66 in Union County, $12.34 in Texas, $10.55
in Illinois, and $11.21 in Ohio.
The rubber and plastics industry includes establishments that
manufacture rubber products such as tires, rubber footwear and
flooring and establishments that mold primary plastics for the
trade. It employed about 7,000 workers on Long Island in 1980
but is concentrated in the states of Connecticut, illinois, .Minn-
esota, New Jersey and Wisconsin. Long Island's coefficient of
value added to wages in this industry was $3.39 in 1980. This
was roughly comparable to that of the other states studied.
The foregoing results indicate that within the non-durable sec-
tor, bi-county manufacturers were highly competitive with their
counterparts elsewhere in newspaper publishing, chemicals and
plastics. They were less competitive in terms of paper products,
textiles and food manufacturing.
57
Chapter 5....
Consumer and
Business Service Jobs
59
Consumer and business services are of increasing impor-
tance to the Long Island economy. The strong growth of such
jobs reflects the recent expansion of bi-county business activity
and the relative affluence of the bi-county area. According to
Sales and Marketing Management Magazine, Nassau-Suffolk
had a median household effective buying income of $35,148 in
1982, the highest of any metropolitan area in the nation.
This chapter traces the expansion of consumer and business
service employment during the 1970s. It analyzes employment
levels, sales and payrolls for Long Island's dominant consumer
and business service industries. The consumer sector consists
of retail trade and consumer services. Consumer services in-
clude hotels and motels; personal services such as laundries,
beauty and barber shops; photographic studios; auto repair ser-
vices and garages; miscellaneous repair services; amusement
and recreational services; health services; and non-profit
membership organizations. Business services include banking,
finance, insurance and related enterprises; advertising and
marketing; credit and collection operations; mailing, reproduc-
tion and stenographic services; services to buildings; personnel
supply services; computer and data processing services; man-
agement and public relations services; protective services; and
legal, engineering and accounting services. Long Island also
possesses numerous institutions of higher education that con-
tribute substantially to the Long Island economy. They serve both
Long Island residents and the bi-county business community.
RETAIL TRADE
In 1980, Nassau-Suffolk contained approximately 170,000
retail jobs. The largest retail industries were eating and drinking
places (40,269 jobs), food stores (29,665 jobs), miscellaneous
retailers (29,965 jobs) and general merchandise (department)
stores (25,021 jobs).
In order to evaluate the relative competitiveness of bi-county
retailers, sales and payrolls per employee were computed for
each major line of retailing for Nassau, Suffolk, Nassau-Suffolk,
the New York Region, and the nation. The New York Region is
defined as the New York-New Jersey-Connecticut Standard Con-
solidated Statistical Area. These indicators were derived from
the 1977 Census of Retail Trade, which provides the latest detail-
ed information about retail trade. Sales per employee reflect
sales volume. Payrolls per employee are a proxy for wage costs.
In 1977, retail sales per employee averaged $58,353 in
Nassau, $59,147 in Suffolk, $55,910 in the New York Region and
$55,455 nationally. Payrolls per employee averaged $7,196 in
Nassau, $7,149 in Suffolk, $7,379 in the New York Region and
$6,584 nationally. These indicators varied widely by industry. For
example, bi-county sales per employee ranged from a iow of
$18,549 for eating and drinking places to a high of $149,674 for
auto dealers. In effect, a relatively high level of sales per
employee were associated with above-average wages and vice-
versa.
Building Material and Garden Supply Retailers. This group
of retailers sells lumber and building materials, paint, wallpaper,
hardware, nursery stock, lawn and garden supplies, and mobile
homes. In 1977, sales per employee averaged $54,950 in
Nassau, $73,706 in Suffolk, $67,168 in the New York Region and
$82,661 nationally. Payrolls per employee averaged $8,985 in
Nassau, $9,104 in Suffolk, $9,354 in the New York Region, and
$9,290 nationally. Lagging bi-county sales, particularly in
Nassau, reflected the maturity of the bi-county area and the fact
that construction activity has tapered off.
General Merchandise (Department) Stores. Such stores
sell several lines of merchandise including dry goods, apparel
and accessories, furniture and home furnishings, hardware, and
food. In 1977, sales per employee averaged $46,697 in Nassau,
$44,571 in Suffolk, $43,317 in the region and $46,580 nationally.
Payrolls per employee averaged $6,334 in Nassau, $6,537 in Sut-
folk, $7,043 in the region, and $6,306 nationally.
Food Stores. This group of retailers sells food for home
preparation and consumption. In 1977, sales per employee
averaged $76,619 in Nassau, $83,870 in Suffolk, $78,598 in the
New York Region and $80,623 nationally. Payrolls per employee
averaged $7,588 in Nassau, $8,038 in Suffolk, $7,861 in the New
York Region and $7,519 nationally.
Automobile Dealers. This group of retailers sells new and
used automobiles, boats, recreational and utility trailers, motor-
cycles, automobile parts and accessories. Auto dealers differ
from other types of retailers by virtue of the high unit costs of
their products. Therefore, sales per employee were dispropor-
tionately high: $160,068 in Nassau, $137,254 in Suffolk,
$146,966 in the New York region and $134,524 nationally. Auto
dealers also paid higher wages than other types of retailers. In
1977, payrolls per employee averaged $13,581 in Nassau,
$12,713 in Suffolk, $13,074 in the New York Region and $11,935
nationally.
Gasoline Service Stations. In 1977, sales per employee for
this line of retailing averaged $89,339 in Nassau, $90,350 in Suf-
folk, $88,803 in the New York Region and $83,946 nationally.
Payrolls per employee averaged $6,668 in Nassau, $6,496 in Suf-
folk, $6,786 in the region and $5,694 nationally.
Apparel and Accessory stores. This group includes stores
that sell new clothing, shoes, hats, underwear and related ar-
ticles for personal wear. In 1977, sales per employee averaged
$46,035 in Nassau, $46,856 in Suffolk, $46,627 in the New York
Region and $42,353 nationally. Payrolls per employee were
$6,988 in Nassau, $6,572 in Suffolk, $7,057 in the region and
$6,022 nationally.
Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores. This group sells
furniture, floor coverings, draperies, glass and chinaware,
domestic stoves, refrigerators, and other household electrical
and gas appliances. Like automobiles, the unit costs of furniture
and appliances are high. Therefore, sales per employee were
also relatively high. In 1977, they averaged $61,716 in Nassau,
$65,724 in Suffolk, $67,189 in the New York Region and $64,697
nationally. Payrolls per employee averaged $8,383 in Nassau,
$8,924 in Suffolk, $9,432 in the region and $8,909 nationally.
60
TABLE 5.1
The Industry Mix of Retail Trade Employment, 1980
Nassau-Suffolk
Industry Industry
Code Description
Employment
Nassau Suffolk Bi-County
52 Building Materials, Garden Supplies 5,242 2,757 7,999
53 General Merchandise Stores 15,482 9,539 25,021
54 Food Stores 17,056 12,609 29,665
55 Auto Dealers, Service Stations 8,716 7,029 15,745
56 Apparel & Accessory Stores 7,686 4,585 12,271
57 Furniture & Home Furnishing Stores 4,796 2,834 7,630
58 Eating & Drinking Places 24,357 15,912 40,269
59 Miscellaneous Retailers 19,098 10,867 29,965
Administrative & Auxiliary 0 1,750 1,750
Total Retail Employment
102,433 67,882 170,315
Source: County Business Patterns
TABLE 5.2
Sales and Payrolls Per Employee, Retail Trade by Industry, 1977
Nassau-Suffolk vs. United States
As a Percent of
Nassau. Suffolk National Average
Sales/ Payrolls/ Sales/ Payrolls/
Retail Group Employee Employee Employee Employee
Bldg. Materials, Garden Supplies $ 64,201 $ 9,044 78% 97%
General Merchandise Stores 45,874 6,413 98 102
Food Stores 79,610 7,774 99 103
Auto Dealers 149,674 13,185 111 110
Gasoline Service Stations 89,762 6,596 107 1 t 6
Apparel and Accessory Stores 46,331 6,818 109 113
Furniture Stores 63,146 8,576 98 96
Eating & Drinking Places 18,549 4,718 110 115
All Retail Trade 58,672 7,177 106 109
Source: Computations based on Census Bureau data.
61
Fig. 5.1
PERCENT DISTRIBUTION OF RETAIL TRADE EMPLOYMENT, 1980
NASSAU-SUFFOLK
62
Eating and Drinking Places. This group consists of estab-
lishments that sell prepared foods and drinks for consumption on
the premises. Sales and payrolls per employee in this industry
tend to be relatively Iow. In 1977, sales per employee averaged
$18,846 in Nassau, $18,133 in Suffolk, $20,654 in the New York
Region, and $16,832 nationally. Payrolls per employee were
$4,860 in Nassau, $4,519 in Suffolk, $5,343 in the region, and
$4,101 nationally. Many restuarant employees receive a sub-
stantial proportion of their total compensation in the form of tips.
Nevertheless, eating and drinking places constitute a Iow-wage,
Iow-productivity segment of retailing both nationally and on Long
Island.
Conclusions: Retail Trade. Nassau-Suffolk was the
metropolitan area with the greatest buying power in 1982. Its
relative affluence is reflected in the fact that bi-county sales per
employee exceeded the national average for most major lines of
retailing. In 1977 sales per employee exceeded the national
average by 11% for auto dealers, 7% for gasoline service sta-
tions, 9% for apparel stores, and 10% for restaurants. Building
material and garden supply retailers were the only major retail
group in which sales per employee lagged the national average.
This reflects a slower pace of residential construction on Long
Island than nationally.
Above-average sales per employee were reflected in above
average wages per employee. For example, payrolls per
employee exceeded the national average by 10% for auto
dealers, 16% for gasoline service stations and 15% for
restaurants.
TABLE 5.3
Sales and Payrolls Per Employee, 1977
Nassau-Suffolk, New York Region, United States
Retail Trade
Sales/Employee
Nassau- New York United
Suffolk Region States
Payrolls/Employee
Nassau- New York United
Suffolk Region States
All Retailers $58,672 $55,910 $55,455 $7,177
Bldg. Materials,
Garden Supply Retailers 64,201 67,168 82,661 9,044
General Merchandise Stores 45,874 43,317 46,580 6,413
Food Stores 79,610 78,598 80,623 7,774
Automobile Dealers 149,674 146,966 134,524 13,185
Gasoline Service Stations 89,762 88,803 83,946 6,596
Apparel and Accessory Stores 46,331 46,627 42,353 6,818
Furniture and
Home Furnishings Stores 63,146 67,189 64,697 8,576
Eating and Drinking Places 18,549 20,654 16,832 4,718
$7,379 $6,584
9,354 9,290
7,043 6,306
7,861 7,519
13,074 11,935
6,786 5,694
7,057 6,022
9,432 8,909
5,343 4,101
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
63
CONSUMER SERVICES
Unlike Long Island manufacturers, who compete in national and
international markets, firms that provide consumer services com-
pete in a more localized market. That is, they provide a population-
based service and are dependent upon the purchasing power of
local residents. Retailers face much the same situation.
In 1980, there were approximately 107,014 consumer service
jobs on Long Island. The largest such industries were health ser-
vices (55,476 jobs) and personal services (11,935 jobs).
In order to evaluate the strength of the consumer service sec-
tor on Long Island, two indicators--receipts per employee and
payrolls per employee--were computed for Nassau-Suffolk, the
New York Region and the nation. These indicators were based
on information from the 1977 Census of Service Industries. This
information was available for five of the consumer service in-
dustries shown in Table 5.4: hotels, personal services, auto
repair services and garages, miscellaneous repair services, and
amusement and recreation services. Receipts per employee
reflect sales volume; payrolls per employee are a proxy for
relative wage costs.
In 1977, receipts per employee in the consumer service
dustries averaged $35,308 in Nassau, $30,780 in Suffolk,
$36,031 in the New York Region and $27,967 nationally. Payrolls
per employee averaged $8,358 in Nassau, $7,805 in Suffolk,
$9,181 in the region and $7,236 nationally. There was con-
siderable interindustry variation in terms of these indicators. For
example, receipts per employee ranged from a Iow of $20,247
for personal services to a high of $51,322 for auto repair services
and garages.
Personal Services. This group includes establishments that
provide services involving the care of people. They include 'laun-
dries and dry cleaners, photographic studios, and beauty and
barber shops. In 1977, receipts per employee averaged $20,068
in Nassau, $20,639 in Suffolk, $21,900 in the New York Region
and $20,247 nationally. Payrolls per employee averaged $6,023
in Nassau, $5,892 in Suffolk, $6,616 in the region and $6,016
nationally.
However, receipts per employee varied greatly within the per-
sonal service industries. For example, bi-county receipts per
employee averaged $22,394 for laundries and cleaning services,
$12,912 for beauty and barber shops and $58,180 for funeral ser-
vices. Payrolls per employee averaged $6,418 for laundries,
$5,500 for beauty and barber shops and $12,586 for funeral ser-
vices.
Auto Repair Services, Garages. This group includes estab-
lishments that provide automotive repair, rental, leasing and
parking services to the general public. In 1977, receipts per
employee averaged $55,078 in Nassau, $44,968 in Suffolk,
$44,953 in the New York Region and $44,653 nationally. Payrolls
per employee averaged $9,720 in Nassau, $9,687 in Suffolk,
$9,741 in the region and $9,222 nationally.
Miscellaneous Repair Services. This group performs elec-
trical, reupholstry and furniture repairs, among others. In 1977,
receipts per employee averaged $42,466 in Nassau, $36,789 in
Suffolk, $37,900 in the New York Region and $39,507 nationally.
Payrolls per employee were $11,855 in Nassau, $11,091 in Suf-
folk, $12,122 in the region and $10,717 nationally.
Hotels, Motels, Trailer Parks. This industry includes com-
mercial and institutional establishments that furnish lodging,
meals and camping space and facilities on a fee basis. In 1977,
receipts per employee averaged $25,178 in Nassau, $29,635 in
Suffolk, $25,663 in the New York Region and $20,369 nationally.
Payrolls per employee averaged $6,813 in Nassau, $7,412 in Suf-
folk, $8,016 in the region and $5,663 nationally.
Amusement and Recreational Services. This group in-
cludes establishments that provide amusement or entertainment
on payment of a fee or admission charge. In 1977, receipts per
employee averaged $40,560 in Nassau, $28,722 in Suffolk,
$53,704 in the New York Region and $32,020 nationally. Payrolls
per employee averaged $8,925 in Nassau, $6,764 in Suffolk,
$11,268 in the region and $7,984 nationally.
64
TABLE 5.4
The Industry Mix of Consumer Service Employment, 1980
Nassau-Suffolk
Employment
Industry Industry
Code Description Nassau Suffolk Bi-County
70 Hotels 1,464 1,568 3,032
72 Personal Services 8,123 3,812 11,935
75 Auto Repair Services, Garages 3,857 2,780 6,637
76 Miscellaneous Repair Services 2,538 1,635 4,173
78 Motion Pictures 5,590 733 6,323
79 Amusement & Recreation Services 7,285 2,506 9,791
80 Health Services 33,240 22,236 55,476
86 Membership Organizations 6,168 3,306 9,474
Adm inist rative & Auxiliary 0 173 173
Total Consumer Service Employment
68,265 38,749 107,014
Source: County Business Patterns
TABLE 5.5
Receipts and Payrolls Per Employee, Consumer Services, By Industry, 1977
Nassau-Suffolk vs. United States
Consumer Service
As a Percent of
Nassau-Suffolk National Average
Receipts/ Payrolls/ Receipts/ Payrolls/
Employee Employee Employee Employee
Hotels $27,277 $ 7,095 134%
Personal Services 20,247 5,982 100
Auto Repair Services, Garages 51,322 9,708 115
Miscellaneous Repair Services 40,230 11,554 102
Amusement & Recreation Services 36,801 8,239 115
125%
99
105
108
103
All Consumer Services
33,753 8,168 121 113
Source: Computations based on Census Bureau data.
65
Fig. 5.2
PERCENT DISTRIBUTION OF CONSUMER SERVICE EMPLOYMENT, 1980
NASSAU-SUFFOLK
Conclusions: Consumer Services. Long Island's relative af-
fluence is also apparent in the competitive indicators for con-
sumer services. Receipts per employee in four of the five de-
tailed industries studied were above comparable receipts per
employee for the nation as a whole. It is noteworthy that receipts
per employee in Long Island's hotel and tourist industry were
34% above the national average in 1977. A higher volume of
sales per employee justifies a higher level of wages. Therefore,
payrolls per employee also exceeded the national average in
four of the five industries studied.
The overall conclusion is that Long Island's consumer service
industries are relatively profitable. It is noteworthy, however that
receipts per employee in beauty and barber shops on Long
Island were approximately 22% below the national average, sug-
gesting that market saturation may have been reached in this in-
dustry. Receipts per employee in bi-county auto repair shops
were 11% below the national average. However, receipts per
employee in auto rental and leasing establishments were 50%
above the national average, suggesting a high degree of prof-
itability for such firms. It is also noteworthy that bi-county
receipts per employee in amusement and recreational services
were 15% above the national average but 32% below com-
parable receipts for firms providing amusement and recreational
services in the New York Region. This reflects the large concen-
tration of cultural facilities in Manhattan. Manhattan has a virtual
monopoly on the legitimate theater and ticket prices have been
rising steadily, leading to a high level of receipts per employee.
Manhattan movie houses also do a high volume of business
relative to their Long Island counterparts.
TABLE 5.6
Receipts and Payrolls Per Employee, 1977
Nassau-Suffolk, New York Region, United States
Consumer Services
Receipts/Employee Payrolls/Employee
Nassau. New York United Nassau- New York United
Suffolk Region States Suffolk Region States
All Consumer Services $33,753 $36,031 $27,967
Hotels, Motels, Trailer Parks 27,277 25,663 20,369
Personal Services 20,247 21,900 20,247
Auto Repair Services, Garages 51,322 44,953 44,653
Miscellaneous Repair Services 40,230 37,900 39,507
Amusement and
Recreational Services 36,801 53,704 32,020
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
$8,168 $9,181 $7,236
7,095 8,016 5,663
5,982 6,616 6,016
9,708 9,741 9,222
11,554 12,122 10,717
8,239 11,268 7,984
67
BUSINESS SERVICES
In 1980, there were approximately 49,000 business service
jobs on Long Island, 32,600 in Nassau and 16,400 in Suffolk. The
same measures of relative profitability--receipts and payrolls
per employee--were computed for the various business service
industries. They include advertising, credit agencies, commero
cial photography, art, and graphics, employment agencies, com-
puter services, detective and protective services, management
consulting services, equipment renting and leasing services,
iegal and architectural services. Receipts and payrolls per
employee were derived from the 1977 Census of Service In-
dustries.
Advertising. In 1977, receipts per employee averaged
$32,464 in Nassau, $15,021 in Suffolk, $43,775 in the New York
Region and $37,741 nationally. Payrolls per employee averaged
$12,766 in Nassau, $7,448 in Suffolk, $20,053 in the region and
$16,169 nationally. Receipts per employee in the New York
Region exceeded those in Nassau-Suffolk primarily because of
the high sales volume generated by Manhattan-based advertis-
ing firms. Such firms serve a diversified market which includes
the nation's largest corporations.
Credit Agencies. In 1977, receipts per employee averaged
$23,779 in Nassau, $20,473 in Suffolk, $22,697 in the New York
Region and $19,294 nationally. Payrolls per employee averaged
$10,585 in Nassau, $12,841 in Suffolk, $10,985 in the region and
$8,396 nationally. In terms of the volume of sales generated by
each employee, Nassau-Suffolk credit agencies were highly
competitive with those throughout the region.
Commercial Photography, Art and Graphics. In 1977,
receipts per employee for firms in this industry averaged
$43,812 in Nassau, $27,336 in Suffolk, $43,298 in the New York
Region and $37,377 nationally. Payrolls per employee averaged
$11,970 in Nassau, $10,632 in Suffolk, $14,308 in the region and
$12,783 nationally. In terms of sales volume per employee,
Nassau firms were highly competitive with those regionwide.
Services to Buildings. In 1977, receipts per employee for
f~rms that provide janitorial and other services to buildings
averaged $12,883 in Nassau, $12,595 in Suffolk, $11,557 in the
New York Region and $9,875 nationally. Payrolls per employee
averaged $7,350 in Nassau, $5,705 in Suffolk, $7,421 in the
region, and $5,291 nationally.
Employment Agencies. In 1977, receipts per employee
averaged $10,018 in Nassau, $22,824 in Suffolk, $19,968 in the
New York Region and $16,718 nationally. Payrolls per employee
averaged $5,565 in Nassau, $9,054 in Suffolk, $10,290 in the
region and $8,537 nationally.
Computer and Data Processing Services. In 1977, receipts
per employee averaged $40,472 in Nassau, $41,290 in Suffolk,
$44,390 in the New York Region and $36,672 nationally. Payrolls
per employee averaged $14,414 in Nassau, $13,144 in Suffolk,
$14,624 in the region and $13,898 nationally.
Management Consulting, Public Relations Services. In
1977, receipts per employee in such firms averaged $29,878 in
Nassau, $29,823 in Suffolk, $39,893 in the New York Region and
$31,866 nationally. Payrolls per employee averaged $14,237 in
Nassau, $12,692 in Suffolk, $17,509 in the region and $13,595
nationally. Long Island firms generated a lower volume of
receipts per employee than firms regionwide primarily because
of the high sales volume of Manhattan-based management con-
sulting firms which serve a large and diversified market. This is
analogous to the situation in advertising.
Detective and Protective Services. In 1977, receipts per
employee averaged $10,948 in Nassau, $7,195 in Suffolk,
$10,716 in the New York Region and $9,343 nationally. Payrolls
per employee averaged $6,413 in Nassau, $4,456 in Suffolk,
$6,471 in the region and $5,708 nationally.
Equipment Rental and Leasing Services. In 1977, receipts
per employee for this group averaged $63,955 in Nassau,
$42,648 in Suffolk, $66,268 in the New York Region and $54,242
68
nationally. Payrolls per employee averaged $14,732 in Nassau,
$13,067 in Suffolk, $13,822 in the region and $12,460 nationally.
Once again, Nassau-based firms were competitive with those
regionally in terms of the volume of sales generated by each
employee.
Legal Services. In 1977, receipts per employee for law firms
and related enterprises averaged $39,781 in Nassau, $37,908 in
Suffolk, $49,755 in the New York Region and $43,738 nationally.
Payrolls per employee averaged $11,027 in Nassau, $9,865 in
Suffolk, $15,099 in the region and $13,307 nationally. Nassau-
Suffolk's relatively Iow level of receipts per employee vis-a-vis
the region reflects the impact of Manhattan-based law firms and
their diverse and often specialized corporate clients.
Engineering and Architectural Services. In 1977, receipts
per employee averaged $60,915 in Nassau, $30,216 in SuffOlk,
$47,278 in the New York Region and $37,648 nationally. Payrolls
per employee averaged $21,374 in Nassau, $14,048 in Suffolk,
$19,781 in the region, and $16,862 nationally. The receipts
generated by firms in Nassau were almost 30% above those
generated by comparable firms regionwide.
The foregoing findings document the internal structure of the
rapidly-growing network of business service firms on Long
Island. For three industry groups, credit reporting and collection
agencies, building services, and engineering and architectural
services, receipts per employee on Long Island exceeded com-
parable receipts regionwide. In computer and protective ser-
vices, the volume of sales generated by each employee also
TABLE 5.7
Receipts and Payrolls Per Employee, 1977
Nassau-Suffolk, New York Region, United States
Business Services
Receipts/Employee
Nassau- New York United
Suffolk Region States
Advertising
Credit Reporting and Collection Agencies
Commercial Photography, Art and Graphics
Services to Buildings
Employment Agencies
Computer and Data Processing Services
Management Consulting, Public Relations
Detective and Protective Services
Equipment Renting & Leasing Services
Legal Services
Engineering & Architectural Services
$26,333 $43,775 $37,741
22,878 22,697 19,294
37,024 43,298 37,377
12,823 11,557 9,875
11,120 19,968 16,718
40,629 44,390 36,672
29,864 39,893 31,866
9,646 10,716 9,343
55,811 66,268 54,242
39,211 49,755 43,738
54,822 47,278 37,648
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
Nassau-
Suffolk
Payrolls/Employee
New York United
Region States
$10,897 $20,053 $16,169
11,200 10,985 8,396
11,419 14,308 12,783
7,006 7,421 5,291
5,865 10,290 8,537
14,171 14,624 13,898
13,858 17,509 13,595
5,734 6,471 5,708
14,096 13,822 12,460
10,673 15,099 13,307
19,920 19,781 16,862
69
compared favorably with those regionally. These statistics
reflect the fact that the bi-county economy has reached the
stage of maturity needed to support a wide range of business
service activities. In several business service industries, notably
advertising, management consulting and public relations, and
legal services, the volume of business of regional firms was con-
siderably greater than that done by Long Island firms. As in-
dicated earlier, this reflects the specialized corporate activities
of Manhattan-based firms, which serve national and international
markets.
The findings also reveal that business services encompass
high-volume, high-wage industries and Iow-volume, Iow-wage in-
dustries. The former include equipment rental firms, firms pro-
viding engineering and architectural services, computer and
data processing firms, firms providing legal services and those
that specialize in commercial photography, art and graphics.
Many of these industries employ specialized technical person-
nel. The Iow-volume, Iow-wage industries include employment
agencies, firms that service buildings and detective agencies.
HIGHER EDUCATION
Higher education on Long Island contributes substantially to
the economy. Spending by Long Island's colleges and univer-
sities and by their students and employees flows directly into the
local income stream. It is magnified through successive rounds
of respending to create additional bi-county jobs. Long Island's
colleges and universities also provide the skilled manpower
needed by employers throughout the New York Metropolitan
Region. Without a steady stream of trained workers and the
facilities needed to update the skills of those already in the labor
force, Long Island would be less attractive to existing and poten-
tial employers.
This section analyzes the dimensions of higher education as a
Long Island industry, it analyzes enrollments, tuition and faculty.
Enrollments include both full-time and part-time students. The
tuition shown sometimes includes activity fees. Faculty statistics
reflect the number of full-time faculty members.
Enrollments. During the 1982-83 academic year, total enroll-
ment at Long Island's private colleges and universities was
estimated at 43,400. Enrollment at bi-county public institutions
was estimated at about 79,000. Total enrollment therefore ap-
proached 125,000 students during the 1982-83 academic year.
Among the private institutions, Adelphi and .Hofstra were
characterized by the largest enrollments. Nassau and Suffolk
Community Colleges each had enrollments of more than 20,000
students.
Annual Tuition. As of the 1983-84 academic year, annual tui-
tion at Long Island's colleges and universities ranged from a Iow
of $1,000 at Suffolk Community College to a high of $7,100 at
Polytechnic Institute of New York. Expenditures for tuition are
only a portion of college-related spending. Students also pay for
room, board, personal and recreational needs and these expen-
ditures are injected into the Long Island economy. However, if
tuition payments alone were applied to estimated 1982 enroll-
merits, Long Island's private colleges would input $216.6 million
into the Long Island economy; the public sector colleges would
provide an additional $90.8 million. Thus, a total of $307 million in
tuition payments is injected into the Long Island economy in a
single year.
Full-Time Faculty. During the 1982-83 academic year, Long
Island's private colleges employed an estimated 2,178 full-time
faculty members and its public institutions employed an addi-
tional 2,478. The wages paid to these 4,656 faculty-members
represent only a portion of the wages flowing into the Long Island
economy from bi-county institutions of higher education. Long
Island's colleges also employ relatively large administrative and
service support staffs. Many part-time faculty members are also
drawn from Long Island's business and government sectors.
The Future of Higher Education on Long Island. Long
Island is facing a diminishing pool of college age students, those
between ages 18 and 22. This reflects declines in birth rates
which began in the early 1960s. However, given the number and
diversity of institutions of higher education on Long Island, the bi-
county area has become a major educational center, rivaling
7O
that of Boston-Cambridge, Massachusetts. Therefore, Long
Island can expect to attract more out-of-state and foreign
students, thereby bolstering enrollments. Adults already in the
labor market and in need of additional training or retraining also
constitute a large potential market.
Given this scenario, bi-county college enrollments are not likely
to suffer in the next several years, provided that Long Island's
academic and business leaders aggressively market the area's
educational assets as they do in other sectors of the economy.
TABLE 5.8
The Dimensions of Higher Education on Long Island
Enrollments, Tuition, Faculty
Annual Full-Time
Enrollment, Tuition Faculty
Institutions 1982-83 1983-84 1982-83
Private Sector 43,381 2,178
Adelphi 11,208 $5,494 367
Dowling 1,400 4,500 74
Five Towns 323 3,200 30
Friends World 185 4,200 5
Hofstra 11,000 5,400 670
Molloy 1,263 3,630 190
New York Institute of Technology
(Old Westbury & Commack) 7,800 3,680 235
Polytechnic institute of New York
(L.I. Campus) 600 7,100 100
C.W. Post 7,200 5,500 386
Southampton 1,120 5,600 72
St. Joseph's 1,100 3,330 39
Webb Institute of Naval Architecture 82 (a) N.A. 10
(e)
Public Sector 79,052 2,478
Community Colleges
Nassau Community 23,089 1,050 532
Suffolk Community 21,500 1,000 430
State University Campuses
Farmingdale 13,427 1,350 298
Old Westbury 3,755 1,350 150
Stony Brook 16,181 1,350 1,000
U.S. Merchant Marine Academy 1,100 (a) N.A. 68
Sources: New York State Education Dept; Long Island Business Review, special
survey, New York Times.
(a) 1981-82 enrollment
(e) estimated
N.A.-Not Available
71
Chapter 6....
Employment and
Labor Force
Projections
73
This chapter develops employment and labor force projec-
tions for the Nassau-Suffolk labor market area through the year
.t 990.
EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS
Employment projections have been made for major industry
groups and for their subcategories. The base period used was
the 1970-80 decade.1 The projections embody a number of
assumptions concerning the future course of the Long Island
economy. For example, it is anticipated that the Long Island
labor market will continue to experience above-average employ-
ment growth and that the transition from goods-producing to
service-oriented employment will also Continue.
A number of assumptions regarding the growth prospects of
specific industries were also made. For example, lower inflation
and interest rates are expected to generate a higher level of
residential construction by the mid-1980s. A plateau of 7,000
units annually could be reached by the latter part of the decade.
Although the rapid pace of bi-county office construction is likely
to taper off between 1983 and 1985, office construction is ex-
pected to accelerate again by mid-decade as increased crowd-
ing and high office rentals in Manhattan continue to drive back-
office operations into surrounding suburbs. Industrial construc-
tion is also expected to remain strong, particularly in Suffolk.
Within manufacturing, it is anticipated that Long Island will con-
tinue to grow in defense-oriented and high technology industries
and to decline in production-oriented industries such as apparel
and textiles. Relatively strong employment growth is projected
for electronic equipment and instruments, two of Long Island's
leading defense industries. Within the non-durable manufactur-
ing sector, industries such as chemicals, paper, and printing and
publishing should do well. Pharmaceuticals, a sub-industry
within chemicals, is poised for growth by virtue of the growing
market for bio-engineered pharmaceuticals. Long Island will con-
tinue to be a desireable location for wholesalers who serve the
~ Base period employment data were derived from County Business Patterns.
These data were supplemented by estimates of government employment ob-
tained from the New York State Labor Department and by estimates of self-
employment which were derived from the 1980 Census.
New York Metropolitan Region because it is a less costly central
distribution point than congested New York City.
A number of assumptions regarding trade and service employ-
ment on Long Island were also embodied in the projections. For
example, the growth of bi-county retail jobs is not expected to be
strong during the 1980s largely because the catchup of retail ac-
tivity to prior population growth has already occurred. The recent
business failure of several retail chains that serve the Iow end of
the market suggests that the retail market for mass con-
sumables is relatively saturated. The financial sector is likely to
experience above-average employment growth for the re-
mainder of the decade. Bank deregulation should lead to con-
tinued mergers and to the assumption of new functions by the
banking industry. The rapid growth of service industry employ-
ment is also likely to continue during the 1980s. The types of
business services available on Long Island will become more
diverse as the bi-county economy matures and diversifies. The
strong demand for health services will reflect the impact of Long
Island's aging population and the development of more sophis-
ticated health care techniques. Repair services will be in strong
demand because it will be less expensive to repair existing
machinery and appliances than to replace them. The demand for
educational services should level out as the number of persons
aged 18 to 22 diminishes. However, Long Island universities are
likely to attract more out-of-state and foreign students, thereby
buttressing enrollments. Moreover, local colleges and univer-
sities are likely to shift resources toward the education and
retraining of adults already in the labor force, a development that
will expand the pool of potential students.
It is likely that growing fiscal austerity at all levels of govern-
ment will limit public sector employment growth during the
1980s. However, the mini-baby boom currently in progress
should begin to increase elementary school enrollments by the
latter part of the decade.
Projected Employment, 1985, 1990. It is estimated that the
Nassau-Suffolk SMSA will gain approximately 162,000 non-farm
jobs between 1980 and 1990. Total non-farm employment is pro-
jected to average 1.04 million jobs in 1985 and 1.12 million in
1990. The most rapid rates of growth will occur in the service in-
dustries, +29.2%, in finance, insurance and real estate,
+28.0%, and in wholesale trade, +22.4%. This represents a
continuation of the growth patterns which characterized the
1970s. It is anticipated that the slowest rates of employment
growth will occur in government, +4.0%, manufacturing,
+13.1%, and retail trade, +13.3%.
Approximately 85,000 new jobs are projected for Long Island
during the 1980-85 period. Some 60% of them will occur in
finance, insurance and real estate and in the service industries.
State Labor Department figures show that Long Island gained
27,000 non-farm jobs between 1980 and 1982. Faster growth is
expected between 1983 and 1985 as the national recovery takes
hold. An estimated 77,000 new jobs are projected for the
1985-90 period. However, the mix of job growth is expected to
change. Finance and services should account for 35% of new
job growth between 1985 and 1990 as compared with 60% of
total growth during the 1980-85 period. By contrast, the share of
employment growth accounted for by the construction and man-
ufacturing sectors should rise from 12 % between 1980 and 1985
to 27% between 1985 and 1990.
Projected Manufacturing Employment. Although the
number of manufacturing jobs are expected to expand by about
13% between 1980 and 1990, growth rates exceeding 35% are
projected for lumber and wood products, instruments, paper,
and printing and publishing. In absolute terms, however, the
largest number of new jobs will occur in electronic equipment,
instruments, and printing and publishing. Collectively, these in-
dustries are expected to generate about 14,500 jobs and to ac-
count for two-thirds of manufacturing growth during the 1980s.
Projected Retail Employment. Miscellaneous retailing, a
category which includes discount houses and other non-store
retailers, is likely to be the fastest growing retail industry on Long
Island during the 1980s. Whereas retail jobs are expected to
grow by 13% between 1980 and 1990, employment in miscella-
neous retailing is expected to grow by 53%. Numerically, the
largest job growth is expected to occur in miscellaneous retail-
ing, + 17,500 jobs, and in eating and drinking places, +5,300
jobs. Together, these industries should account for about 95% of
the growth of retail jobs on Long Island during the 1980s.
74
TABLE 6.1
Industry
Projected Non-Farm Employment, 1985, 1990
The Nassau. Suffolk SMSA
Projected
Employment
Employment, 1980' 1985 1990 1980-85
Construction
Manufacturing
Transportation, Communica-
tion, Utilities
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Finance, Insurance,
Real Estate
Services
Government
Percent
Net Change Change
1985-90 1980-90 1980-90
Total
44,824 47,175 52,563 2,351 5,388 7,739 + 17.2
177,574 185,584 200,882 8,010 15,298 23,308 + 13.1
41,858 47,772 49,387 5,914 1,615 7,529 + 18.0
66,061 71,667 80,842 5,606 9,175 14,781 + 22.4
182,315 194,731 206,512 12,416 11,781 24,197 + 13.3
57,127 63,266 73,129 6,139 9,863 16,002 + 28.0
209,904 253,822 271,136 43,918 17,314 61,232 +29.2
178,400 179,272 185,632 872 6,360 7,232 + 4.0
958,063 1,043,289 1,120,083 85,226 76,794 162,020 + 16.9
*Includes an adjustment for self-employed workers.
Source: Long Island Regional Planning Board
Projected Employment, Finance, Insurance and Real
Estate. Total employment in this sector is expected to increase
by 28% between 1980 and 1990. Numerically, the greatest
growth is expected to occur in banking, + 6,500 jobs, and in-
surance, + 3,100 jobs. These industries are likely to account for
60% of total job growth in finance, insurance and real estate dur-
ing the 1980s.
Projected Service Industry Employment. The service in-
dustries are expected to generate an additional 61,000 jobs be-
tween 1980 and 1990. Most of this growth is projected to occur
during the first half of the decade. Numerically, the greatest job
growth is expected to occur in business services, + 20,500 jobs,
and in health services, + 14,700 jobs. These industries are ex-
pected to account for 58% of the growth of service industry
employment on Long Island during the 1980s.
Comparison With Other Projections. This section compares
the LIRPB projections with those of the Office of Business
Economics of the U.S. Department of Commerce (OBERs). The
LIRPB projections show a 16.9% employment gain between
1980, the base year, and 1990. The Commerce Department pro-
jections show growth of 16.3% between 1978, the base year,
and 1990. The LIRPB projections show 1,043,289 jobs in 1985
and 1,120,083 jobs in 1990. The Commerce Department projec-
tions show 1,065,373 jobs in 1985 and 1,094,225 jobs in 1990.
Although these projections are relatively similar on an overall
basis, there were nevertheless significant interindustry dif-
ferences in projected employment levels. These desparities
reflect differences in methodology. Whereas the Commerce
Department projections rely entirely on mathematical extrapola-
tions of historical trends, the LIRPB projections factored in
growth assumptions for each industry. In manufacturing, for ex-
75
Fig. 6.1
PROJECTED MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT, BY INDUSTRY, 1980-90
NASSAU-SUFFOLK
(No. of Jobs)
Durables
Net Change + 15,062 jobs (12.8%)
Non~
Durables
Net Change +9,082 jobs (16.0%)
76
Fig, 6.2
PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT, BY INDUSTRY, RETAIL TRADE, FINANCE, 1980-90
NASSAU-SUFFOLK
(No. of Jobs)
Retail
Trade
Real Es~a~e
Net
+ 6,460 + 1,235 + 630 + 3,061 + 1,410 + 1,730 + 145 + 641
+ 690
3,3%)
77
Fig. 6.3
PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT, BY INDUSTRY, THE SERVICE INDUSTRIES, 1980~90
NASSAU-SUFFOLK
(No. of Jobs)
0
4
3
2
78
TABLE 6.2
Comparison of Employment Projections
LIRPB vs. OBERS
Regional Planning Board Bureau of Economic Analysis
Percent Percent
Employment Projected Change Employment Pr~ected Change
Industw 1980 1985 1990 1980-90 1978 1985 1990 1980-90
Construction 44,824 47,175 52,563 +17.2 44,840 55,847 61,419 +37.0
Manufacturing 177,574 185,584 200,882 + 13.1 161,349 169,847 166,328 + 3.1
Transportation, Utilities 41,858 47,772 49,387 + 18.0 41,454 47,259 48,387 + 16.7
Wholesale Trade 66,061 71,667 80,842 +22.4 59,445 72,338 73,980 +24.5
Retail Trade 182,316 194,731 206,512 + 13.3 185,180 200,348 203,264 + 9.8
Finance, Insurance,
Real Estate 57,127 63,266 73,129 + 28.0 53,613 70,638 75,297 + 40.4
Services 209,904 253,822 271,136 +29.2 226,802 272,847 289,155 +27.5
Government 178,400 179,272 185,632 + 4.0 168,438 176,249 176,395 + 4.7
Total Non-Farm
Employment 958,063 1,043,289 1,120,083 + 16.9 941,121 1,065,373 1,094,225 + 16.3
Source: LIRPB and OBERS
ample, the projections took account o1 the impact of the current
defense buildup on industries such as electronic equipment and
instruments. The retail trade projections took cognizance of the
likely impact of increased residential construction on sales by
furniture and building materials retailers.
LABOR FORCE PROJECTIONS
The labor force projections include the following population
assumptions: It is estimated that Nassau's population will
decline by almost 24,000 persons between 1980 and 1990 and
that Suffolk's population will increase by approximately 86,000
persons during the 1980-90 period. The school age or under 20
population is expected to decline in both counties. However,
there will be substantial increases in the retirement age popula-
tion, those 65 and older, and in those between ages 20 and 34.
The labor force projections also include assumptions regar-
ding rates of labor force partipation, by age. It was assumed that
the average age of entry into the labor force will continue to in-
crease because more classroom training will be needed for
future jobs. However, it is anticipated that the trend toward early
retirements will be reversed to some extent because inflation
and scaled back social security benefits will create an economic
need to work longer. Female labor force participation rates are
expected to remain high. Female workers can be expected to
work more continuously, often allowing only a brief interlude for
childbearing and child rearing.
Projected Labor Force, 1985, 1990. The Long Island resident
labor force is projected to increase from 1,229,922 in 1980 to
1,277,715 in 1990. This represents a net gain of 47,793 workers
or about 4%. Long Island's labor force increased by almost
79
300,000 workers between 1970 and 1980. These projections
suggest that labor force growth will be much slower than job
growth during the 1980s. That is, only 48,000 workers will enter
the labor force while approximately 162,000 new jobs will be
created. In effect, more than three jobs will be created for every
new worker during the 1980s so that the labor surplus of the
1970s will be transformed into a labor shortage du ring the 1980s.
This situation is likely to lead to lower unemployment rates on
Long Island. It may also mean that Long Island will be able to pro-
vide additional job opportunities for neighboring New York City
residents.
TABLE 6.3
The Nassau.Suffolk Population, by Age
1980 (actual); 1985 and 1990 (projected)
Nassau Suffolk Bi-County
Age 1980 1985 1990 1980 1985 1990 1980 1985 1990
0-19 years 386,421 321,739 299,602 453,167 409,694 390,236 839,588 731,433 689,838
20-34 years 290,194 335,586 355,373 294,396 320,892 348,734 584,590 656,478 704,107
35-49 years 234,784 232,739 250,338 242,849 261,063 279,388 477,633 493,802 529,726
50-64 years 269,787 244,033 202,317 177,991 187,705 194,919 447,778 431,738 397,236
65 years and older 140,396 162,646 190,186 115,828 133,845 156,925 256,224 296,491 347,111
Total Population 1,321,582 1,296,743 1,297,816 1,284,231 1,313,199 1,370,202 2,605,813 2,609,942 2,668,018
Source: New York State Commerce Dept. and LIRPB
TABLE 6.4
Labor Force Projections, By Sex, 1985, 1990
Nassau-Suffolk
Percent Change Net Change
1970(a) 1980(a) 1985(p) 1990{p) 1970-80 1980-90 1970-80 1980-90
Males 587,880 725,790 716,119 741,357 23.5% 2.1% 137,910 15,567
Females 344,134 504,132 525,303 536,358 46.5 6.4 159,998 32,226
Total 932,014 1,229,922 1,241,422 1,277,715 32.0 3.9 297,908 47,793
(a)-actual
(p)-projected
Source: Long Island Regional Planning Board
8O
Nassau
Fig. 6.4
PROJECTED LABOR FORCE, BY SEX, 1985, 1990
NASSAU-SU FFOLK
Suffolk
1980 (Actual) 1985 (Projected) 1990 (Projected)
1980 (Actual) 1985 (Projected) 1990 (Projected)
81
Labor force projections by age provide additional insights into
the types of labor force changes that are expected to occur on
Long Island. By 1990, Nassau-Suffolk's labor force will be older
and presumably more experienced and productive. In Nassau,
58% of the labor force will be age 35 or older; in Suffolk, 57% of
the labor force will be in this age category. In 1990, there will be
proportionately more workers in the prime working age
groups--age 20 to 49--and proportionately fewer workers be-
tween the ages of 50 and 64.
Projected labor force shortages during the 1980s make it even
more essential to ensure a close match between the skills of
Long Island workers and the skills required by Long Island jobs.
The following section analyzes the skills that will be required by
Long Island's growth industries.
OCCUPATIONAL REQUIREMENTS OF EMERGING JOBS
Approximately 38% of the 162,000 new jobs projected for the
1980s will occur in one of seven industries: printing and
publishing, electric and electronic equipment, instruments,
eating and drinking places, banking, business services and
health services. The projected 1990 occupational structure for
each of these industries was applied to projected employment
growth in each industry to derive an occupational demand matrix
for the new jobs.
Of the 61,465 jobs projected to occur in these industries, ap-
proximately 20% will require professional and technical skills,
27% will require clerical workers and 24% will require service
workers. However, the occupational demands associated with
the individual industries varied substantially. The printing and
publishing industry is expected to generate upwards of 4,500
new jobs between 1980 and 1990. Approximately 35% of these
jobs will require skilled craft workers, primarily compositors,
typesetters and printers. In addition, 16% of the total workforce
will be professional and technical workers, 10% will be
managers, 21% will be clerical'workers and 10% will be semi-
skilled operatives. The printing and publishing industry employs
relatively few service workers and laborers.
TABLE 6.5
Labor Force Projections, By Age and Sex, 1985, 1990
Nassau-Suffolk
Males
Age Cohort 1985 1990
Females Total Labor Force
1985 1990 1985 1990
% Dlstrlb.
1985 1990
16-19 64,199 60,616 64,160 60,491 128,359 121,107 10.3 9.5
20-34 224,645 247,017 169,063 179,097 393,703 426,114 31.7 33.3
35-49 217,755 236,121 142,692 152,321 360,447 388,442 29.0 30.4
50-64 179,129 159,466 128,086 119,760 307,215 279,226 24.8 21.9
65 + 30,391 38,137 21,302 24,689 51,693 62,826 4.2 4.9
Total 716,119 741,357 525,303 536,358 1,241,422 1,277,715
Source: Long Island Regional Planning Board
100.0 100.0
82
100,000
50,000
Fig. 6.5
PROJECTED LABOR FORCE, BY AGE AND SEX, 1990
NASSAU-SUFFOLK
Nassau
Age Cohort
16-19 yrs.
20~34 yrs.
35-49 yrs.
50-64 yrs.
65 yrs. or more
Suffolk
16-19 yrs.
20-34 yrs.
35~49 yrs,
50-64 yrs.
65 yrs. or more
50000
i00000
83
The electrical and electronic equipment industry is projected
to generate approximately 5,000 new jobs between 1980 and
1990. Whereas the preponderance of new jobs in printing and
publishing will be for craft workers, approximately 38% of all
new jobs in the electronics industry will require professional and
technical workers, primarily engineers, engineering and science
technicians and computer specialists. An additional 10% will be
managers, 19% will be clerical workers, 10% will be skilled craft
workers, and 19% will be operatives. This industry also employs
relatively few service workers and laborers.
The occupational requirements of eating and drinking places,
a subindustry within retail trade, are somewhat different. Three-
quarters of the 5,300 new jobs projected for this industry during
the 1980s will require service workers, primarily food service
workers. These include bartenders, waiters, waitresses, cooks,
dishwashers, and food counter workers.
The occupational needs of the business and health service in-
dustries are more heavily skewed toward the professional and
technical occupations. The health service industry is expected to
generate approximately 15,000 new jobs during the 1980s. Of
these approximately 30% will require professional and technical
skills, 20% will require clerical skills, and 40% will require ser-
vice workers. The professional and technical occupations in-
clude medical workers and health technologists; the service cc-
cupations include health service workers such as dental
assistants, health aides, nursing aides and practical nurses.
The business service industry is expected to generate 20,500
new jobs on Long Island between 1980 and 1990. Of these, 18 %
will be for professional and technical workers, including accoun-
tants and personnel specialists, 12% will be for managers and
other officials, 30% will be for clerical workers and 24% will be
for service workers, primarily cleaning and protective service
workers.
TABLE 6.6
The Projected Occupational Mix of New Jobs
in Long Island's Growth Industries, 1990
Electric & Eating &
Printing & Electronic Drinking
Publishing Equipment Instruments Places
Projected New
Jobs, 1980-90 4,556 5,032 4,870 5,290
By Occupation
Professional & Technical 751 1,914 758 78
Managers, Officials,
Proprietors 452 486 393 595
Sales Workers 537 125 79 105
Clerical Workers 947 963 848 463
Craft and Kindred
Workers 1,331 500 795 44
Operatives 468 969 1,847 77
Service Workers 28 40 64 3,913
Laborers 42 35 86 15
Business Health
Banking Services Services
Total
Source: Long Island Regional Planning Board
6,460 20,520 14,737 61,465
407 3,683 4,536 12,127
1,701 2,438 525 6,590
56 813 15 1,730
4,030 6,213 2,918 16,382
16 1,157 457 4,300
16 1,028 405 4,810
224 4,912 5,759 14,940
10 276 122 586
84
Fig. 6.6
THE PROJECTED OCCUPATIONAL MIX FOR
LONG iSLAND'S MAJOR GROWTH iNDUSTRIES
1990
Although approximately 60% of those needed to fill new,jobs
in Long Island's growth industries will be white-collar workers
and approximately one-third of these will be professionals,
managers or technicians, there will nevertheless be substantial
demand for various service workers. This suggests that even in a
high-technology economy, substantial numbers of Iow-tech jobs
are generated. In fact, a dichotomy appears to be emerging bet-
ween hi-tech workers, those with professional and technical
skills, and Iow-tech workers, primarily service workers. The Iow-
tech aspects of a high-technology economy, and the economic
implications of this phenomenon, merit the attention of
policymakers and manpower planners.
*Reflects the occupationa~ distribution of 61.465 new iobs
proiected to occur between 1980 and 1990 in seven growth
industries.
85