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HomeMy WebLinkAboutWine Industry & The Future of Agriculture on LI's North Fork The Institute for Social Analysis The State University of New York at Stony Brook WORKING PAPER SERIES /' " "The Wine Industry and the Future of Agriculture on Long Island's North Fork" MICHAEL ZWEIG, SUNY Stony Brook " STONY BROOK STATE UNNERSITY OF NEW YORK Social and Behavioral Sciences State University of New York at Stony Brook Stony Brook, New York 11794-4356 . . Stony Brook Working Papers Department of Economics The Wine Industry and the Future of Agriculture on Long Island's North Fork By Michael Zweig, SUNY Stony Brook Research Paper No. 290 September 1986 StonyBrook Circulated by: WORKING PAPER COORDINATOR Department of Economics State University of New York at Stony Brook Stony Brook, New York 11794-4384 . . . TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Tables Acknowledgements Introduction to the Issues p.l Grape Growing on Eastern Long Island p.4 The Economics of Wineries p.IO Comparing Returns to Grape Growing and Wine Making p.13 The Role of Tax Shelters and Development Rights p.15 Potential Size of Grape and Wine Industry in Southold Town p.16 Economic Impact of Vineyards p.17 Economic Impact of Wineries p.19 . Economic Obstacles to Industry Growth Market Niche Quality Tourist Flows Imbalance of Grape Acreage and Winery Capacity Risks and the High Cost of Entry Public Policy Issues Creating an Agricultural Preserve Zoning for Wineries Tourism, Commercial Zoning and Gentrification Local Government Finance Conclusion References p.22 p.22 p.24 p.25 p.28 p.29 p.30 p.3l p.33 . p.35 .p.37 p.39 p.42 . . LIST OF TABLES I . Agricultural Land Use By Crop, Southold Town, 1986 p.4 , II. Grape Acreage Planted and Bearing, Southold Town and Suffolk County, 1986 p.5 III. Distribution of Planted Grape Acreage by Variety, Southold Town, 1986 p.5 IV. Production and Gross Revenue Per Acre Grapes and Wine p.6 , V. Typical Investment for 36 Acre Vineyard Vinifera Grapes, Long Island, 1985 p.7 VI. Vineyard Operating Cost Per Acre Fifth Year and Beyond p.8 VII. Composition of Total Cost for 36 Acre Vineyard, Vinifera Grapes, Long Island, 1985 . VIII.Capital Costs by Winery Size p.9 \ p.10 IX. Average Production Cost of a Bottle of Wine by Winery Size p.12 X. Grape and Wine Yield From Various Acreage p.17 XI. Per Acre Input Requirements Grapes and Selected Other Crops p.17 XII. Input Requirements for Selected Grape Acreage p.18 XIII.Winery Capital Requirements for Selected Acreage XIV. Selected Winery Operating Costs for Selected Acreage XV. Home of Visitors to Pindar Winery p.20 p.21 p.27 XVI. Estimated East Coast Vinifera Acreage, 1986 p.28 . ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ~ This study grows out of discussions I had while serving on the Economic Advisory Committee to the Southold Town Board, on the North Fork of Eastern long Island. It was formulated in consultation with the Economic Advisory Committee, chaired by William Behr, joined by Warren Cannon, William Gardner, and George Wieser. Professor Glen Yago, Director of the Economic Research Bureau at SUNY Stony Brook, provided encouragement and helpful suggestions. Funding for the study was provided by Southold Town and the Suffolk County Industrial Development Agency. I want to thank Southold Town Supervisor Francis Murphy, and other Town Board members Jean Cochran, Ray Edwards, George Penny, Jay Schondebare, and Paul Stoutenburgh for their support and confidence. I would like to thank Suffolk County IDA Chairman Thomas Junor, and Tom Hanlon of the IDA, for their support. Suffolk County legislator Gregory Blass also provided helpful support. I had able research assistance from Roberto Burguet, a graduate student in Economics at SUNY Stony Brook. I received valuable help from many librarians, at the New York City Public library, the Main library at SUNY Stony Brook, and at the St.Helena, California, Public library, which houses an important collection of wine related books, journals, and other documents. In the course of discussions on the Economic Advisory Committee, I drew special benefit for this study from remarks by Robert Anrig, Vice-President of North Fork Bank and Trust, Ed latham, owner of Latham Farms in Orient, and John Wickham, owner of Wickham Fruit Farm in Cutchogue. My guide into the workings of the industry has been Larry Fuller-Perrine, Research Support Specialist/Grapes at the long Island Horticultural Research Lab of Cornell University. Without his knowledge, ability to explain complicated issues, and sense of the dynamics of the industry as a whole, I could not have formulated the proposal or done the research. In California, I was introduced to the wine industry by Tom and Allison Cottrell, Cottrell Winery Consulting in St.Helena, California. They facilitated my visit, helped to make appointments for me, and contributed to my understanding of the industry. . In the course of investigating the grape and wine industry, I spoke with many people on Long Island, in Upstate New York, in Virginia, and in California. Each person contributed to my knowledge. They agreed to speak with me without knowing me, and gave graciously of their time and knowledge. I would like to thank the following people for their help. ON LONG ISLAND Alan Barr, owner, Barr Vineyard John Bedell, owner, Bedell Cellars Robert Bidwell, owner, Bidwell Vineyard Ray Blum, owner, Peconic Bay Vineyard and Winery operator, Soundview Vineyard Hank Boerner, Boerner Assoc., Carle Place Director, New York Wine/Grape Foundation Richard Carr, owner, Manor Hill Vineyard Allan Connell, Soil Conservation Service, Riverhead Bud Cybulski, Chair, Southold Town Farmland Preservation Commit tee Dr. Herodotus Damianos, owner, Pindar Vineyard and Winery President, Long Island Grape Growers Association Sal DiChiarra, Manager, Southold Vineyard David Emilita, Southold Town Planning Board Consultant George Fey, Long Island Tourism and Convention Commission Cynthia Fuller-Perrine, Island Wine Promotions, Peconic Ron Goerler, owner, North House Vineyard and Jamesport Vineyard Jerry Gristina, owner, Cutchogue Vineyards Scott Harris, Southold Town Assessor Dan Kleck, winery consultant, Southold Dorothy Klewicki, Administrative Assistant, Suffolk County Department of Real Estate Walter Krupski, Assistant Vice-President and Senior Branch Officer, North Fork Bank and Trust, Greenport Patricia Lenz, owner, Lenz Vineyard and Winery Peter Lenz, owner, Lenz Vineyard and Winery Peter Manning, Orient, and U.S. Department or Agriculture, Boston Charles Massoud, owner, Ursula and Charles Massoud Vineyard Dick McGovern, owner, McGovern Sod Farms, Melville Lawrence Milius, Vice-President, Southold Savings Bank Dave and Steve Mudd, owners, Mudd's Vineyard and operators, Lerner, Manor Hill, Theurer/Wolf and Palmer Vineyards Marilyn Norkelun, Broker, Floyd King Realty, Orient Richard Olsen-Harbich, Winemaker, Bridgehampton Winery Gary Patzwald, Winemaker, Palmer Vineyard Bob Pellegrini, owner, Cutchogue Vineyard Ralph Pugliese, owner, Pugliese Vineyard . Paul Pylko, Peconic Richard Ressler, owner, Ressler Vineyard Donna Rudolph, Assistant Vineyard Manager, Ressler Vineyard Luis San Andres,owner, San Andres Vineyard Ray Sandidge, Cellar Master, Pindar Winery Bill Sanok, Agricultural Program Leader, Co-operative Extension, Riverhead Dianne Schultze, Secretary, Southol~ Town Planning Board John Simicich, owner, Mattituck Vineyard Kathy Simicich, owner, Mattituck Vineyard Ben Sisson, Vineyard Manager, Ressler Vineyard Bill Skolnik, General Manager, Pindar Beverly Smith, CAST Director, Greenport Jeanette Smith, Fruit Specialist, Co-operative Extension, Riverhead Melissa Spiro, Summer Intern, Southold Town Planning Board George Sullivan, Sullivan & Preston, CPA, Southold Curt Tabor, Orient John Talbot, Senior Vice-President, Southold Savings Bank Raymond W. Terry, Jr., President, Southold Savings Bank Mrs. Uhlinger, Executive Director, Nassau-Suffolk Horseman's Association IN UPSATE NEW YORK . George Casler, Professor of Agricultural Economics, Cornell Kenneth Gardner, Land Use Specialist, Co-operative Extension, Department of Agricultural Economics, Cornell Paula Gilbert, Senior Planner, Raymond, Parish, Pine, & Weiner, Inc., Tarrytown James McGrath Morris, Editor, VINEYARD & WINERY MANAGEMENT (formerly EASTERN GRAPE GROWER & WINERY NEWS Gene Pierce, owner, Glenora Wine Cellars Director, New York Wine/Grape Foundation Gerald B. White, Co-operative Extension, Professor of Agricultural Economics, Cornell IN VIRGINIA Carolyn Bowen, Zoning Administrator, Fauquier County Andrew Evans, Deputy Zoning Administrator, Albemarle County Doug Flemer, owner, Ingleside Plantation President, Virginia Vintners Association Lou Ann Ladin, Wine Marketing Specialist, Virginia Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services, Richmond Sharon Livingston, owner, Hartwood Vineyard President, Virginia Vineyard Association Amelia Patterson, Planner, Albemarle County Planning Dept. Archie Smith, Jr., owner, Meredyth Vineyards Archie Smith, III, Vice-President for Production, Meredyth Vineyards Al Weed, owner, Mountain Cove Vineyard . . IN CALIFORNIA . Oavid Barnes, Corporate Banking Officer, Bank of America, St.Helena Lance Bonds, Appraiser, Napa County Assessor's Office, Napa Keith Bowers, Viticulture Specialist, Co-operative Extension, Napa John L. Brown, Vice-President for Administration and Finance, Beckstoffer Vineyards, St.Helena, and member, St.Helena City Council Frederick L. Cannon, economist, Bank of America Center, San Francisco Philip E. Crundall, Senior Planner, Napa County Conservation, Development and Planning Department, Napa Chuck Dake, broker, UpValley Associates, Realtors, St.Helena Jack Davies, owner, Schramsberg Vineyards, Calistoga Robert A. Dwyer, Executive Director, Napa Valley Vintners Association, St.Helena Art Finklestein, owner, Whitehall Lane Winery, St.Helena Sam Folsom, Public Affairs, The Wine Institute, San Francisco George Goldman, Co-operative Extension, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of California, Berkeley James Hickey, Director, Napa County Conservation, Development and Planning Department, Napa Michael Jones, Corporate Banking Officer, Bank of America, St.Helena Kenneth Milam, Planning Director, Sonoma County, Santa Rosa Kirby Moulton, Co-operative Extension, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of California, Berkeley Eric Neil, Cellar Master, Joseph Phelps Winery, St. Helena Nell Neil, St.Helena Dr. Richard Neil, former member, Napa County Planning Commission, St.Helena Nancy Pridmore, realtor-broker, Vintage Properties, Napa Frank Rodriguez, United Farmworkers of America, AFL-CIO, Rutherford Sandra St.Amant, Executive Assistant, Napa Valley Grape Growers Association, Napa Wade Stevenson, Director, Economic Research Department, The Wine Institute, San Francisco Mel Varrelman, Napa County Board of Supervisors, St.Helena Agapito Vazquez, Director of Field Services, California Grower Foundation, St.Helena . THE WINE INDUSTRY AND THE FUTURE OF AGRICULTURE ON LONG ISLAND'S NORTH FORK by Michael Zweig INTRODUCTION TO THE ISSUES Long Island's grape and wine industry, newly created within the past 15 years, exemplifies change and development in the area. At the same time, the industry provides opportunity for continuity amid the change, contributing as it does to the preservation of the rural and agricultural character of Eastern Long Island. This study assesses the potential impact of the grape and wine industry on the local economy, and evaluates public policy issues raised by the industry. Before treating these subjects in detail, some basic elements of context should be identified. . Agriculture is an important part of the Suffolk County economy. In dollar volume, Suffolk is the leading agricultural county in New York State, with $92.2 million in sales in 1982, the most recent census year. Of the nearly 50,000 acres then devoted to farming in Suffolk, 12,000 acres were located in Southold Town, making it the most rural and agricultural section of Suffolk County, and of Long Island. The importance of agriculture to the Southold economy has been recognized in the Town Master Plan, which calls on the Town to "preserve Southold's prime farmland and encourage the continuation and diversification of agriculture as an important element in the life and economy of the Town."(l) The Plan's commitment to agriculture fully reflects the desires of the Southold population, as sampled for the Greenport-Southold Chamber of Commerce in 1984. "There is strong sentiment for the continuation of agricultural businesses," based on the finding that "most respondents (57%) favor pUblic support for farming."(2) Despite the widespread commitment to agriculture, it must be understood that change is imminent in Southold. The Town is no longer an area largely isolated from New York City and Western portions of Long Island, left alone to go about its business free from the development pressures which have pushed the length of Long Island. No one can keep development pressure and change out of the area. The critical task of planning, and the most important local challenge to the political leadership and people of the Town in the coming few years, will be to harness and channel this development to recreate a liveable community with a sound economic base, respecting also the unique environmental features of the North Fork. It is possible that development on the North Fork can be reconciled with continued rural life. The fact that change is inevitable does not mean that agriculture must decline. Actually, for agriculture to succeed it too must change. In a 1985 report to the New York State Department of Agriculture and Markets, the management consulting firm Arthur D. Little found that "New York agriculture has failed to innovate in the production of new crops," but that "with innovative, entrepreneurial leadership, New York can compete for markets in a wide variety of commodities and products."(3) The emerging grape and wine industry on the North Fork has the potential to play an important role in the preservation of local agriculture. The New York State Legislature recognized and promoted the industry's role statewide in 1976, when it passed the Farm Wineries Act to facilitate the establishment and success of small wineries. This is in keeping with the 1984 Legislative declaration of intent that "It is the declared policy of the state to. conserve, protect and enhance the agricultural lands of this state."(4) The grape and wine industry is not the only growing agricultural activity in Southold and Suffolk County. Sod farms, nurseries, floriculture, horse farms -- all these have expanded in recent years. More traditional row crops, especially potatoes and vegetables, continue to dominate local land use, despite declining acreage, and will continue to be an important part of the agricultural economy for many years into the future. In one important respect, the grape and wine industry is different from other agriculture. The industry combines the traditional farming activity of raising a crop with the industrial process of wine making and commercial activities associated with a sophisticated marketing strategy. The integration of agriculture, industry, and commerce into one economic activity, often undertaken by a single business enterprise, makes the industry more complex than most agriculture, and puts strains on traditional zoning classifications. This study of the grape and wine industry should properly be taken as part of the discussion required to assess the overall future of agriculture and open rural land on the North Fork. Experience from all parts of the country demonstates that, in the face of serious pressure for suburban development, agriculture can be preserved only with a combination of two factors: 1) zoning to limit 2 nOn-agriculural uses; and 2) economically viable agriculture which will attract and sustain farming in the areas reserved for it. . In the face of strong development pressure, of the sort now facing the North Fork, agricultural land can not be preserved without large lot zoning to protect it. But no zoning protection can work if there is not an economically viable use for the land under the terms of the zoning code. Before coming to the issues connected with zoning appropriate to the preservation of agriculture, it is therefore important to determine whether we can reasonably expect farming to continue as an economically sound . activity on the North Fork. A positive conclusion is not at all obvious. The farm crisis shaking U.S. agriculture has been widely reported. Agricultural land use on Long Island has steadily fallen in front of the seemingly inexorable sprawl of metropolitan New York, which has now begun to penetrate Southold Town. Many people have concluded that agriculture on Long Island is doomed,- that the best Southold residents can expect is to manage the sprawl, and make whatever living can be gotten from it. A careful analysis of the economics of the grape and wine industry on Long Island challenges such predictions. There are reasons to conclude that grape growing and wine making could provide long term agricultural use for much of the land in Southold. Other crops may well also contribute to this goal. 3 GRAPE GROWING ON EASTERN LONG ISLAND The 1983 Southold Town Master Plan Update states that 12,000 acres were then devoted to agriculture in the Town. Since that time, several hundred acres have been converted to housing or commercial uses. Table I shows the estimated current acreage devoted to various crops in Southold Town. TABLE I. AGRICULTURAL LAND USE, BY CROP SOUTHOLD TOWN, 1986 CROP ACREAGE Potatoes Vegetables Grain Grapes Nursery and Sod Fruit Horse Farms Non-agricultural uses TOTAL 3,500 3,000 2,500 752 600 280 100 900 11,632 Source: author's estimates, in consultation with Suffolk County Agriculural Extension agents and others In 1986, 752 acres of grapes are in the ground in Southold Town, occupying 6.5% of Southold farmland. An additional 211 acres have been planted in Riverhead and Southampton Towns, bringing the total grape acreage in Suffolk County to 963 acres, roughly 2% of County farm land. The soil and microclimatic conditions of the North Fork ma~e it an especially suitable location for grapes, accounting for the concentration of acreage there. Table II shows the 1986 acreage planted to grapes, and the acreage bearing a commercial crop, for Southold Town and Suffolk County. Only two-thirds of the acreage planted is bearing, reflecting the young age of much of the vines. If all land currently owned by vineyards available for grapes were so planted, Southold Town would have 1052 acres of grapes, and over 1500 acres would be planted in Suffolk County. The prospects for additional planting, and for attracting still greater investment in grape acreage in the future, will be analyzed in subsequent sections of this report. 4 TABLE II GRAPE ACREAGE PLANTED AND BEARING SOUTHOLD TOWN and SUFFOLK COUNTY __ 1986 SOUTHOLD SUFFOLK Bearing 507 671 Planted 752 963 Additional available(a) 300 542 Number of vineyards(b) 22 35 Average planting 34.2 27.5 a. currently owned by vineyard, suitable for planting, but not yet in grapes. b. a vineyard is a single business entity, with or without an associated winery, sometimes planted on several parcels. source: author's survey Table III shows the distribution of acreage devoted to various varieties of grape in Southold Town. It is based on a detailed survey of 14 growers, covering nearly three-fourths of planted acres in the Town. Vinifera grapes account for 88% of the sample, table grapes 3%, with the rest in French-American hybrids. TABLE III DISTRIBUTION OF PLANTED GRAPE ACREAGE BY VARIETY SOUTHOLD TOWN -- 1986 VARIETY % OF TOTAL Chardonnay 40.7 Cabernet Sauvignon 17,0 Merlot 9.6 Riesling 8.5 Pinot Noir 7.6 Seyval 5.5 Table grapes (all varieties) 3.0 Gewurztraminer 2.6 Cabernet Franc 1.6 Other 3.9 source: author's survey 5 There are three broad classes of grape grown in the United States: native American varieties, such as Concord; vinifera varieties, such as CnardonnaYi and hybrids, such as Seyval. There are substantial differences in the wines produced from these grapes, and in the market value of the wines. Growers on Long Island have concentrated on vinifera grapes, from which the classic fine European and California wines are made. There is an astonishing variation in price received by growers for a ton of grapes of a given variety. For example, in Napa Valley, California, in 1985, one ton of Chardonnay grapes sold at prices ranging from $100 to $2,300. A ton of Cabernet Sauvignon brought its grower anywhere from $147.59 to $1,700.(5) Price variations reflect differences in sugar content and acidity, as well as other factors determining the quality of the grape and thereby limiting the quality of the wine which can be produced from the grape. The price a given grower will receive depends critically on the skill of the vineyard manager and the labor tending the vines, and on detailed characteristics of soil and climate at the spot the grapes are grown. Yield per acre is similarly dependent on skilled labor and astute vineyard management. . TABLE IV PRODUCTION AND GROSS REVENUE PER ACRE GRAPES AND WINE Grape Yield Gross Revenue Wine Yield Gross Revenue tons/acre from grapes gal. bottles from wine 2.5 $2,500 375 1875 $13,125 3.0 3,000 450 2250 15,750 3.5 3,500 525 2625 18,375 4.0 4,000 600 3000 21,000 Table IV indicates the gross revenue generated by an acre of grapes in Suffolk County, at different yields. The Table is based on a standard conversion factor of 150 gallons of wine produced from one ton of fruit, and five 750 mI. bottles per gallon of wine. [A case of wine contains 2.4 gallons, or twelve bottles.] As noted above, grape prices vary considerably, both by variety and by grower source. Grape prices in Table IV were set at $1,000 per ton, reflecting a weighted average of prices for Suffolk-grown grapes received by effective growers in the area in 1985. Wine was priced at $7 per bottle for Table IV, also broadly representative. Of course, wines made from expensive grapes, like Chardonnay, will sell for higher prices than blends or varietal wines made from less expensive grapes. 6 For the 1986 harvest, an average yield of 2.5 tons per acre seems most likely. This is considerably less than the 3.5 tons per acre most growers anticipate for planning purposes, based on experience in developed grape growing regions. The lower local yield reflects the immaturity of many vines just coming into bearing, and inexperience among area growers. Still, some well tended vineyards will likely realize 4 tons per acre in 1986. In 1986, the 509 bearing acres of grapes in Southold Town will produce about 1272 tons of grapes with a gross market value of $1.27 million. If these grapes were all crushed and made into wine locally, 190,875 gallons of wine with a market value of $6;68 million would result. (We will see below that winery capacity in Suffolk County is not sufficient to process all grapes grown in the area.) The full bearing acreage in Suffolk County in 1986 will produce about 1677 tons of fruit, enough to make nearly 252,000 gallons of wine valued at $8.8 million. What does it cost to generate these revenues? A recent study analyzed vineyard costs on Long Island.(6) Table V shows its findings for the investment needed to establish a 36 acre vineyard on a 40 acre farm, close to the average setting for Southold Town. TABLE V. TYPICAL INVESTMENT FOR 36 ACRE VINEYARD VINIFERA GRAPES, LONG ISLAND, 1985 Item Per Farm % of Per Acre Total of Grapes Land (40 acres) $280,000 43.9 $7,778 Machinery & Equipment 62,269 9.8 1,730 Building 16,000 2.5 444 Irrigation 51,800 8.1 1,439 Vineyard Establishment & Development (3 years) 227,736 35.7 6,326 Total 637,805 100.0 17,717 Source: G.B.White and J.L.Smith, "Cost of Production of Vinifera Grapes on Long Island, 1985," p.14 7 A grape vine requires a minimum three years after planting to begin to bear fruit. Not until the fifth year can it be expected to reach a mature yield, and the quality of the fruit continues to improve, with proper care, for a few years more. The useful life of a vine depends upon the variety and the care given, and ranges from 15 to 25 years or longer before the fruit yield begins to decline and the vine is replaced. Vineyard development costs shown in Table V bring the vineyard to its first production, after the third year. During this period no revenue comes in. For purposes of Federal income taxes, these costs are capitalized and taken as depreciation expense once the vineyard produces a commercial crop. Exclusive of land costs, it takes about $10,000 per acre to develop a vineyard to the point of bearing in Suffolk County. Once mature, the operating costs to grow and harvest grapes require $1177 per acre, as detailed in Table VI. TABLE VI VINEYARD OPERATING COST PER ACRE FIFTH YEAR AND BEYOND 33.6 Total(a) 1177 100 Labor Equipment Materials Dollars Percent of total $447 38.0 156 13.3 396 a. includes custom harvest cost of $177.50/acre Source: G.B.White and J.L.Smith, "Cost of Production for Vinifera Grapes on Long Island - 1985," p.12 Table VII displays all costs incurred by a typical 36 acre vineyard growing vinifera grapes on Long Island, in 1985 prices. $3,461 are needed to pay operating costs and cover all fixed costs assigned to each acre of grapes, including land costs. While it is appropriate to consider the opportunity cost of money tied up in land as a cost of farming, a case can be made that the cost should not be charged against revenue from the crop. It is also appropriate to treat the land separately, as an investment which will return a capital gain when sold. This seems reasonable for Suffolk County. 8 TABLE VII COMPOSITION OF TOTAL COSTS FOR 36 ACRE VINEYARD VINIFERA GRAPES, LONG ISLAND -- 1985 Costs $ per acre Fixed Land Charge(a) Capital Recovery (depreciation Machinery and Equipment Buildings Irrigation Vineyard Property Taxes utilities, telephone Insurance Office expenses and interest) $291 43 140 535 $ 700 1,009 100 50 50 20 Variable Growing and Harvesting Hauling to Winery Interest on Operating Capital(a) Management (5% of gross receipts) Total Cost per Acre Cost Per Acre, Land Excluded 1,177 60 75 220 $3,461 2,761 Cost per Ton: 3 Ton Yield 3.5 Ton Yield 4 Ton Yield 1,154 989 865 Cost Per Ton Land Excluded: 3 Ton Yield 3.5 Ton Yield 4 Ton Yield 920 789 690 a. 9% interest charge Source: G.B.White and J.L.Smith, "Cost of Production for Vinifera Grapes on Long Island -- 1985," p.15 It is possible to make a living growing grapes on Long Island, given careful tending of the vines. Taking an average price of $1,000 per ton for grapes, a yield of four tons per acre will generate $135 per ton harvested beyond full costs of production. This yield will net the farmer $540 per acre, or $19,440 a year from a 36 acre farm, after mortgage payments on the land. The farm will net $44,640 a year without considering land costs. 9 THE ECONOMICS OF WINERIES While it is possible to make a living as a farmer growing grapes, the livelihood is precariously subject to weather and market fluctuations in product price, as is farm income derived from any other crop. Grapes differ from other crops, however, in their ready and historic association with processing into a high value product, wine. On Long Island, as everywhere else in the world where grapes are grown, wineries have been established in conjuction with the newly planted vineyards. There is a wide variety of estimates for the cost of constructing a winery. The most variable component is the cost of the building itself, which can range from a strictly functional structure to an architectural show- piece. Equipment can be new or used, technologically sophisticated or more ordinary and affordable. The quality and type of cooperage will depend upon the goals the winemaker sets. Table VIII sets forth the single best set of estimates for the capital costs of establishing a small winery in New York.(7) Item TABLE VIII CAPITAL COSTS BY WINERY SIZE Winery Size (gallons) 6,000 12,000 25,000 50,000 100,000 $29,700 64,200 118,200 207,900 372,000 50,800 75,800 152,800 284,000 538,700 81,800 163,000 254,300 345,100 647,900 162,300 303,000 525,300 837,000 1,558,600 $27.05 25.25 21. 01 16.74 15.59 Equipment Cooperage Building Total $/gal. Source: C.C.Vreeland, J.R.Brake, and G.B.White, "An Investment Analysis of New York Small Premium Wineries," p.13 The cost estimates in Table VIII were done in 1982, based on synthetic engineering models rather than actual survey data from operating wineries. The results are consistent with other engineering studies of winery costs, reported by Kirby Moulton in a 1981 economic analysis of small wineries in California.(8) Moulton also reports findings from a survey of 14 California wineries ranging in size from 2,000 to 120,000 gallons. Average cost reported for buildings, cooperage, and equipment was $14.40 per gallon of production. These lower costs seemingly reflect the willingness and ability of California winemakers to "make do" with buildings and equipment less costly than the brand new inputs assumed in engineering studies.(9) No comparable survey data exist 10 for Long Island wineries, but sketchy preliminary information seems to indicate that the actual equipment and cooperage costs are in line with Table VIII, while building costs are much higher. As preparations are being made for the 1986 harvest, there are five wineries in Southold Town, and three more in Riverhead and Southampton Towns. Suffolk County wineries range in capacity from 3,000 to 80,000 gallons, and have a combined capacity to produce 188,000 gallons of wine a year. With the completion of two more wineries already under construction, local winery capacity will reach 300,000 gallons by the 1987 harvest. Table IX describes average costs of production for a bottle of wine produced in a small winery, including both operating and capital costs for 1982. With $600/ton grape prices then prevailing in New York State, average total cost to produce a bottle of wine ranged from $2.99 in the larger "small" winery (100,000 gallon capacity) to $3.68 a bottle in the smallest. For every $100 increase in the price of a ton of vinifera grapes, about $.13 is added to the cost of making a bottle of wine. Allowing a cost of $1,000 a ton for Long Island vinifera grapes, $.53 is added to the production cost of a bottle of wine, bringing the range to from $3.52 to $4.21 per bottle. It is difficult to know how to adjust the 1982 costs in Table IX for subsequent price changes. Reviewing the major elements, the $l,OOO/ton vinifera grape price used above, some 40% of total costs, is already the average 1986 cost, so there is no need to adjust grape prices further. A considerable fraction of packaging (bottles) and equipment is imported. From 1982 into 1985 the dollar strengthened greatly and foreign goods became cheaper. Since then the dollar has weakened again almost to its 1982 levels, so those prices are about the same. Despite some increase in depreciation because of higher building costs, capital outlays, another 15 to 20%.of the total, have gone down dramatically because interest costs have been cut about in half. The substantial saving in capital costs has offset the increase in other costs, taken at the rate of general inflation. It is likely that the overall effect of price changes since 1982 has been negligible. There are, however, two reasons to believe that the costs shown in Table IX somewhat understate realities for Long Island, both related to the fact that Long Island wineries specialize in premium wines made from vinifera grapes. Compared to the up-state experience on which Table IX is based, Long Island wineries will age their wines longer, thereby incurring larger costs from holding inventory. Long Island wineries will also use a more expensive combination of cooperage. These considerations might increase the cost per bottle of Long Island wine not 11 more than 5% beyond the totals shown in Table IX. When the higher cost of vinifera grapes is also included, the production cost of Long Island .wine' ranges from $3.70 to $4.45 per bottle. TABLE IX AVERAGE PRODUCTION COST OF A BOTTLE OF WINE BY WINERY SIZE WInery She (6R....ON~ ) Ita.. 6,000 12,000 25,000 50,000 100,000 Variable Costs ..-Average cost per bottle--- Grapes ($600/ton) 1.058 1.058 1. 058 1.058 1.058 "fg supplies 0.051 0.051 0.051 0.051 0.051 PackagIng 0.599 0.599 0.599 0.599 0.599 Excf.. taxes 0.066 0.066 0.066 0.066 0.066 Manager loperator 0.327 0.245 0.157 0.098 0.059 Labor 0.177 0.141 0.293 0.304 0.199 Marketf ng 0.310 0.310 0.310 0.310 0.310 Utilftfes 0.063 0.063 0.063 0.063 0.063 Offfce supplfes 2.:.2l! 0.016 2.:.2l! 2.:.2l! 2.:.2l! AVERAGE VARIABLE COSTS 2.667 2.549 2.613 2.565 2.421 FIxed Costs Insurance 0.036 0.035 0.028 0.022 0.020 , Capftal outlays 0.758 0.725 0.594 0.466 0.432 Property taxes 0.062 0.062 0.046 .0.031 0.029 80ndf ng & If cense 0.014 0.011 0.009 0.008 0.010 Repel rs & ..Intanance 2.:..!ll ~ 9.JJl ~ ~ AVERAGE FIlED COSTS Llli. 0.971 ~ ~ ~ - - AVERAGE TOTAL COSTS 3.680 3.520 3.402 3.179 2.993 . ASSUMPTIONS: Grape pri ce $600 per ton; and cos t of capf ta 1 lIS (nomf nal) . Source: C.C.Vreeland, J.R.Brake, and G.B.White, "An Investment Analysis of New York Small Premium Wineries," p.18 Selling costs are an important consideration for any winery. If the wine is marketed through a wholesale distributor, the winery may lose up to 50% of the retail price to the wholesaler's discount. If the winery distributes its own wine to local restaurants and merchants, a smaller discount is lost, often 33%. Beyond the discount, about 2% more of gross revenue must pay for the van and driver needed by the winery for delivery. Even when the winery sells directly through its tasting room, and receives the full retail price, there are significant selling expenses. The tasting room must be built, furnished, and maintained. A salesperson must be paid. In addition, wine must be poured to visitors. One Virginia winemaker kept records and concluded that on average his winery poured one bottle of wine for every case sold through the tasting room, a selling cost of 8.5% without considering other expenses for the tasting room. 1 ? Some California wineries have begun to charge $1.25 for wine tasting, by requiring visitors to buy a wine glass before the pouring. The step is controvertial there, and is practiced in only a couple of Long Island wineries. In a young industry concerned about barriers to the public, charging for tastings is of limited value in defraying the selling expenses of a tasting room. There is no rule governing the share of wine sales accomplished through various distribution channels. In general, the larger the winery the greater the share of its product which must be sold at discount. Long Island wineries report a wide range of experience, with the fraction sold through the tasting room varying from 5% to 40%. To calculate an average selling expense, it is reasonable to set a 50% discount for wholesale channels, a 35% discount and delivery expense for winery sales to restaurants and liquor stores, and an estimated 15% selling charge for the tasting room. If a large winery sells 95% through a distributor, and 5% through its tasting room, an average selling expense of 48.25% must be charged against retail value of the wine in calculating net income to the winery. A small winery selling 40% of its wine through the tasting room and delivering the rest to area stores and restaurants must give up 27% of gross revenues to distribution costs. To some extent at least, economies of scale arising from larger production capacity is undermined by the diseconomies of scale involved in marketing larger volumes of wine, when greater fractions of output must be sold through deliveries and then through wholesale distributors. COMPARING RETURNS TO GRAPE GROWING AND WINE MAKING To compare the economics of growing grapes with the economics of making and selling wine as well, consider an average size Southold vineyard, on which 35 acres of grapes are planted. At 3.5 tons harvested per acre, the farm will produce 122.5 tons of grapes a year, grossing $122,500 in revenue. For comparison, in 1982 the average Suffolk County farm sold products valued at $116,719.(10) Excluding the cost of land, the grape farmer will incur a cost of $789 per"ton (see Table VII). The farmer therefore nets $211 per ton of grapes, $738.50 per acre, and $25,847 for the year from the whole farm. Now suppose the grape grower also has a winery in which s/he processes all fruit grown on the farm. 122.5 tons of grapes will create 18,375 gallons of wine (at 150 gallons per ton), enough for 91,875 bottles a year. If the wine is made in a 25,000 gallon winery, it costs on average $2.344 to produce a bottle of wine (see Table IX), 13 not counting the grapes, which the winery supplies to itself from its vineyard, and not counting the 5% addition for special costs associated with vinifera wines. The cost of producing the wine from the vineyard grapes comes to $215,355, to which must still be added some charge for the grapes, and the 5% surcharge. If the winery charges itself the market price of the grapes it uses, at $1000 per ton, $122,500 must be added to the cost, bringing the total to $337,855. Adding the vinifera surcharge brings the total cost of producing 91,875 bottles of wine to $354,748, an average $3.86 per bottle. At an average $7 per bottle selling price, the farm winery will generate $643,125 in gross revenue per year from the product of the grapes grown on the farm. When the total costs of production are subtracted, the farm makes $288,377 for the year, from which all selling costs must be paid. Applying a 35% selling expense ratio to gross revenues indicates a selling expense of $225,094, leaving a net income of $63,283 for the farm, nearly two and half times the income provided by the grapes alone. To this can be added income from wine made of grapes purchased from other growers, up to the capacity of the winery. It is possible to make a living growing grapes, and it is reasonable to expect that a comfortable living can - be earned from a farm winery. As with any farm or business, these results depend on hard work, effective management, and the ability to market the product. For those with the money, or access to sufficient credit, and a willingness to take risks in an untried market, invest- ment in the grape and wine industry on Long Island can be attractive. Several dozen people have already come to this conclusion and invested considerable sums of money in the grape and wine industry of Long Island. None of the grape growers is a local farmer who switched to grapes from another crop. Each grower bought land in the area in order to establish a vineyard. Practically all the land now in cultivation for grapes had been planted in potatoes, although some had been in vegetables, or fallow, when it was purchased for grapes. No single stereotype characterizes the investor drawn to the Long Island grape and wine industry. Some are professional people, some successful small businessmen, some executives of large corporations. Some are absentee owners who rely completely on hired management, others are deeply involved in the day to day operations and do much of the physical work themselves, together with family members. Some commute to the area on weekends, others have moved to their farm places and become full community members. Some are more attracted to the agricultural 14 aspects of grape growing, others concentrate on the techniques of making fine wine, others have a special penchant for promotion and marketing. Some will succeed, others have already failed. Beyond the cost of land, the 963 acres of grapes now planted in Suffolk County represent an investment of about $9.6 million. Winery capacity of 300,000 gallons is already committed in the area, representing roughly $7.5 million additional investment. Although an individual grape grower may prosper without owning a winery, it is not reasonable to expect a grape growing industry to hold land open over thousands of acres without sufficient wineries in the immediate area to process the grapes. THE ROLE OF TAX SHELTERS AND DEVELOPMENT RIGHTS A common view expressed on Long Island is that the desire to shelter income from Federal tax has motivated the growth of the local grape and wine industry. In fact, investors have benefited from certain provisions of the Federal tax code. Three features of the code have been especially important. The investment tax credit has subsidized part of the costs. The right to apply a five year accelerated cost recovery schedule (ACRS, sometimes known as accelerated depreciation) to vineyard establishment and development costs has exaggerated the losses from early years of operation for tax purposes. Taken together with the third feature, the ability to use losses from one business to offset taxable income from an . unrelated source, investors have been able to shelter at least part of their income from Federal tax. This of course makes investment in the grape and wine industry more attractive than it otherwise would be. These tax advantages are available to investors in many businesses. Among the many methods to shelter income from taxation, investment in a vineyard is far from the top of the list, inferior to oil and natural gas, cattle, timber, or shopping centers, to name a few. Vineyard development costs, 35% of the initial outlay, cannot be expensed when incurred. Although these costs, when capitalized, are subject to quite favorable depreciation, the investor must wait three years before any tax advantage, because depreciation of capitalized development costs must wait until the first commercial crop. Unlike classic tax shelters, vineyards require constant attention and hard work. Tax considerations are an important part of the financial plan of any vineyard, or other business. It would, however, be incorrect to say that tax advantages drive investment in the grape and wine industry, as is sometimes claimed by critics of the industry. 15 - The sale of development rights can be taken as an indication that the land owner plans to keep the land in agricultural use, since such a sale precludes the use of the land for any other purpose. Table II shows that 1,052 acres of land are owned by vineyards in Southold Town. By June, 1986, development rights for 177 of these acres had been sold or offered for sale to the Town or Suffolk County.(ll) Of the 10,880 agricultural acres used for other purposes in Southold Town, development rights for 1,064 acres had been sold or offered for sale. Vineyard owners have offered development rights on 16.8% of their land, whereas all other owners of farmland have offered rights on only 9.8% of their land. This result is consistent with grape growers' claims that they are serious about turning their investments into long term, economically viable agricultural activity. POTENTIAL SIZE OF GRAPE AND WINE INDUSTRY IN SOUTHOLD TOWN The most recent version of the Master Plan Update for Southold Town recognizes that in the future less acreage in the Town will be devoted to farming. After allowing for growth of other uses, 9,950 acres remain zoned agricultural-residential on the Southold Town map. All agricultural areas are open to housing development. No area is set aside as an agricultural preserve.(12) Not all agriculturally zoned land will be used for agriculture. In Suffolk County in 1982, 10.5% of land in farms was tied up in house lots, ponds, roads, wasteland, and other uses beyond agriculture.(13) If this ratio is applied to Southold Town, about 8,900 acres remain in the Master Plan as potential cropland. The great majority of farmland in Southold Town is suitable for grape growing, possessing the soil, grade, and drainage required. Taking 80% as a conservative estimate of acreage suitable for grapes, about 7,000 of the 8,900 acres of cropland proposed in the Master Plan could become vineyards. This is a physical maximum, which mayor may not be achieved in practice, depending on the economics of grape growing compared with other land uses, and depending on zoning in the Town. Table X indicates the amount of grapes which can be expected from different levels of planting in Southold Town, and the amount of wine which can be made from these grapes. When the 750 acres now planted in Southold mature, they will yield 2,625 tons of grapes, enough to produce 393,750 gallons of wine. If the full 1,050 acres now available to grape growers in the Town were planted, enough grapes would be grown to produce over 550,000 gallons of wine. If all 7,000 acres technically suitable for grapes in Southold Town were planted in grapes, the 16 Town would produce about 25,000 tons of grapes and be able to support over 3.6 million gallons of winery capacity. TABLE X GRAPE AND WINE YIELD FROM VARIOUS ACREAGE Acreage Tons of Grapes Gallons of Wine 750 2,625 393,750 1,050 3,675 551,250 1,500 5,250 787,500 2,000 7,000 1,050,000 3,500 12,250 1,837,500 5,000 17,500 2,625,000 7,000 24,500 3,675,000 Assumptions: 3.5 tons/acre, 150 gallons/ton ECONOMIC IMPACT OF VINEYARDS Table XI compares the per acre requirements of labor, chemicals, and equipment used to grow grapes with the amounts required to grow other crops important in local agriculture. Grape growing requires more than six times the direct labor involved in growing potatoes, but uses less labor than cauliflower or cabbage growing. Of the crops surveyed, grapes required by far the least fertilizer, and used just over have as much chemicals as potatoes, although more than cauliflower or cabbage require. An acre of grapes involves considerably more equipment operating costs (fuel and repairs) than the other crops. TABLE XI PER ACRE INPUT REQUIREMENTS GRAPES AND SELECTED OTHER CROPS Input Grapes Potatoes Cauli flower Cabbage Labor hours/yr 91.7 14.5 129.1 128.4 Fertilizer $/yr $110.10 182.44 260.51 187.00 Chemicals $/yr $228.91 418.57 132.81 146.58 Equipment operating costs $/yr $156.14 116.34 88.45 100.65 Source: Derived from G.B.White and J.L.Smith, "Cost of Production for Vinifera Grapes on Long Island," and S.S.Lazarus and G.B.White, "The Economic Potential of Crop Rotations in Long Island Potato Production," with current prices drawn from survey of local equipment and chemical dealers. 17 No strictly comparable study has been made for other crops grown on Eastern Long Island. The owner of one sod farm indicated, however, that about $500 per acre is required for fertilizer and lime to grow sod over a two year planting cycle, resulting in an annual chemical cost lower than any of the crops in Table XI. Another $900 is required for labor to plant, grow, and harvest an acre of sod. This $450 annual labor cost per acre of sod is essentially the same as the $447 per acre of grapes shown in Table VI. Using the information in Tables VI and XI, it is possible to compute the impact on the local economy of various levels of grape planting. Table XII shows how many full time equivalent jobs (2,000 hours per year) are involved in tending different amounts of mature vines. The grower was presumed to contract out the harvest. Practically the entire cost of mechanical harvest ($177.50 per acre) is accounted for by equipment costs, since it takes only about one hour of machine-operator labor to harvest an acre of grapes. TABLE XII INPUT REQUIREMENTS FOR SELECTED GRAPE ACREAGE Acreage Labor(a) Materials Equipment $xOOO $xOOO . 750 1,050 1,500 2,000 3,500 5,000 7,000 35 48 69 92 161 230 321 297 416 594 792 1,386 1,980 2,772 117 164 234 312 546 780 1,092 Harvest(b) $xOOO 133 186 266 355 621 887 1,242 a. full time equivalent employment (2,000 hrs./yr), not counting harvest labor b. contract mechanical harvest, at $177.50 per acre Source: derived from Tables VI and XI As a rough rule of thumb, it takes one person full time to maintain 20 acres of grapes in New York.(14) In practice, a 35 acre vineyard will engage one full time manager/skilled equipment operator, often the owner, and part time seasonal employment concentrated in the pruning and tying months of December to May, and in the September- October harvest period, if hand picking occurs. About 80% of the labor hours are low paid, at $4.50 to $5.00 per hour, while about 20% of the time involves labor now paid about $6.50 to $7.00 per hour. 18 Almost all of the expenses of operating a vineyard are paid to local businesses and individuals. The labor pool is not dependent on migrant labor. Chemicals and fertilizers are all purchased through area dealers, as are other materials used in establishing and maintaining the vineyard. Tractors and trucks are purchased and maintained by local dealers, although harvest equipment and some other specialty items have been purchased through dealers outside the area. As the industry grows, more complete local provision of vineyard needs can be expected. In addition to the operating costs detailed above, the full economic impact of the vineyards includes costs of establishing the vineyard, an additional $10,000 per acre (see Table v) after land charges. Most of the materials and labor are supplied locally, but until now the vines, amounting to 14% of establishment costs, have been imported. As local vineyards expand, a greater share of vines for new development may originate here, if a specialized nursery business for vinifera vines emerges. ECONOMIC IMPACT OF WINERIES Even greater than the impact of vineyards is the potential economic effect of associated wineries in the area. While vineyard acreage will be concentrated on the North Fork because of its unique soil and microclimate, wineries may be spread more evenly through Eastern Long Island. How the wineries are distributed among the East End Towns will depend critically on zoning considerations, as well as on tourist flows and how the general character of an area meshes with the image the winery seeks to project in its marketing strategy. The potential economic impact of wineries discussed below should be understood to extend to the entire East End. We will first consider the impact of building the wineries, and then look at their operation. The cost of establishing a winery depends on its size and on its architectural design. In practice, a wine region has wineries of different sizes, with relatively many small wineries accounting for a small share of total production, and a few large wineries which produce the majority of the wine.(15) Suffolk County already displays this pattern. The two largest wineries in 1987 will account for 60% of capacity, while the three smallest will provide just 7% of capacity. Average capacity will be 30,000 gallons. Capital costs for establishing wineries of different sizes are displayed in Table VIII. Taking an average cost based on the proportion of winery capacity of different sizes actually found in Suffolk County, $18.25 per gallon 19 results. If we adjust for 75% higher building costs in Suffolk County, compared with those on which Table VIII is based, we can conclude that it costs $25.00 to establish a gallon of wine making capacity in Suffolk County. About $10.00 of this will be for equipment and cooperage, the remaining $15.00 for building costs. Table XIII shows the estimated capital investment required to build wineries of sufficient capacity to process all grapes grown on the North Fork, for selected total acreages. Costs were derived by applying the per gallon figures derived in the previous paragraph to the wine production sustained by various acreage, as shown in Table X. The per gallon cost was assumed constant for all levels of production, reflecting the assumption that the size distribution of wineries remains constant as the region grows. This latter assumption is probably false, since the observed distribution of winery size in areas larger and more developed than Long Island is more unequal than the currently existing distribution on Long Island. It is likely that as the Long Island region grows, a larger share of total wine production will be in larger wineries (100,000 gallons or more), despite a proliferation of small farm or estate wineries in the 6,000 to 25,000 gallon range. In such an event, Table XIII likely overstates somewhat the investment required at larger acreages. TABLE XIII WINERY CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS FOR SELECTED ACREAGE Vineyard Winery Winery Capital Outlays Acreage Capacity $ million 000 gal. Building Other Total 1,500 787.5 $11.8 $ 7.9 $19.7 2,000 1,050.0 15.7 10.5 26.2 3,500 1,837.5 27.6 18.4 46.0 5,000 2,625.0 40.1 26.3 66.4 7,000 3,675.0 55.1 36.8 91.9 Of the capital expenses projected in Table XIII, building costs will all accrue to area contractors and subcontractors. At present, cooperage and much of the equipment used in a winery must be purchased from dealers outside the area. As the industry develops, it is reasonable to expect that specialized commercial establishments will-enter the area to cater to the needs of winery construction and equipment. The operation of wineries generates a steady flow of income to area residents. Aside from the purchase of grapes from local growers, wineries support a labo: force involved in production and a number of technicians who repair and maintain winery equipment. In small wineries 20 . the owner may act as cellar master and winemaker, but in larger wineries these functions provide jobs for highly skilled and well paid people. Further, a winery will engage professional employees for marketing and sales. Table XIV shows estimated expenses for two elements of winery costs especially important to the local community: production labor, and repair and maintenance work. Cost per bottle is 20% higher than costs shown in Table IX, to reflect inflation since 1982, the year on which Table IX is based. TABLE XIV SELECTED WINERY OPERATING COSTS FOR SELECTED ACREAGE Vineyard Acreage Winery Capacity million bottles Winery Operating Costs $ million Production Maintenance Labor and Repair 1,500 3.94 $1.4 $ .5 2,000 5.25 1.9 .6 3,500 9.19 3.3 1.1 5,000 13.13 4.7 1.6 7,000 18.38 6.6 2.2 Source: Derived from Table IX As the grape and wine industry grows, serious labor shortages will arise considering the currently available labor pool. In the vineyards, it will be difficult to find hundreds of people to do pruning and tying work in the winter months. Growers have already experienced problems finding a steady workforce. To alleviate some of the problem, most vineyards are arranged to facilitate mechanical harvesting of mature vines. Seasonal workers in the industry complain of low wages, the lack of health and other benefits, and the short spells of employment, which make it impossible to collect unemployment compensation. These are problems the industry will have to address if it is to secure a more stable and committed work force. Experience suggests that a 25,000 gallon winery will employ three or four professional people, including a general manager, sales manager, winemaker, and cellar master, at an average salary of $25,000 a year. For every million gallons of wine making capacity, then, about 150 professional jobs will be created, with an estimated payroll of $3.75 million. Although a few vineyard managers and winemakers now working in the industry grew up in the area, most of these skilled personnel have come to Long Island from elsewhere. As the industry becomes a stable and larger part of the ?1 economy, however, more young people from the area will be able to find high paying, responsible jobs in the industry, after technical training in agricultural college programs, and on the job. The industry will also support agronomists, viniculturists, and chemists. Even a modest sized industry of 2,000 acres can be expected to support between 150 and 200 relatively highly paid full time jobs. To appreciate the potential impact of the grape and wine industry on the Long Island economy, one must add together the effects of the vineyards and additional substantial contributions from wineries. Combining the information contained in Tables XI, XIII, and XIV, it appears that of all agricultural uses of land on Long Island, per acre the growing of grapes and making of wine generates the most employment and the greatest use of intermediate inputs from local merchants. ECONOMIC OBSTACLES TO INDUSTRY GROWTH On the basis of physical and technical considerations alone, the grape and wine industry could involve a maximum of about 7,000 acres in Southold Town, with an economic impact described above. But the physical possibility of a particular growth pattern does not mean that such growth will be justified on economic grounds and actually occur. Even though initial indications of possible success have attracted investment significant enough to establish more than 950 acres of vineyards and ten wineries on Eastern Long Island, it does not necessarily follow that still greater growth will be justified as well. We turn now to the prospects for further development of the grape and wine industry on Long Island, focussing on the most important economic obstacles which will need to be overcome if the industry is to expand. MARKET NICHE: Wine is a highly differentiated product. In recent years, there has been a substantial slowing in the growth of the overall wine market in the United States, after a decade of exceptionally strong advance during the 1970s. Consumption of table wine actually declined 6.5% in 1985, compared with 1984. Only the phenomenal growth of wine coolers at the low end of the market allowed total wine consumption to increase by 4.7% in the year. For comparison, table wine consumption grew at an average rate of 9.9% from 1970 to 1975, and 11.2% per year from 1975 to 1980.(16) Table wine products are also highly differentiated, ranging from cheap jug wines to fine vintage varietals. Long Island wine makers are aiming for the premium end of the market, producing fine wines from vinifera grape varieties. [There is no standard industry definition of "premium" wine. Usually, the term refers to wine selling for at least $5 per 750 mI. bottle.] In the 22 highly stratified world of wine, premium wines have been spared the recent declines experienced by the rest of the table wine segment. "Even the more bearish industry analysts call for consumption of California premium wine to increase by 6 to 8 percent annually through the end of the century."(17) Shifts in demand for different kinds of wine reflect changes in the pattern of income distribution in the United States. At least since the late 1970s, a greater fraction of the population has earned income below $20,000 a year, while a greater fraction has also earned income in excess of $60,000 a year. The relative decline of middle income families has caused important shifts in marketing strategies for a broad range of goods and services.(18) As income has become more polarized, goods and services aimed at the high, and low, end of the market have done well, compared with products traditionally purchased by middle income people. The growth in demand for wine coolers and premium wine, in the midst of an overall slump in table wine sales, is consistent with this pattern. In 1985, over 577 million gallons of wine were supplied to U.S. markets. Of this, 23.7~ came from foreign sources. Within the United States, California dominates wine production, accounting for 9l.3~ of all domestic output in 1985. New York, which produced over 24 million gallons of wine, is the second highest producing state, with 5.4~ of production.(19) Premium wines account for roughly 25~ of California output.(20) In the total wine market, Long Island production is vanishingly small. To become established, Long Island wines must find a market niche in the metropolitan New York City area. To enter this market successfully, winemakers and industry leaders will have to devise a careful marketing strategy, based on the excellence of the wine and the fact that it is produced in New York. Long Island wineries have had some initial success in selling to fine wine shops and expensive restuarants in New York City. The wines are gaining recognition in restaurants on Long Island as well. The fact that the Long Island Grape Growers Association has produced an attractive brochure describing the industry, with the backing of the New York Wine/Grape Foundation, is another positive step. Long Island wines will compete against California and European premium wines. With respect to the latter, Bank of America economist Frederick Cannon has concluded that "Unlike the standard wine producers, however, premium producers do not have to contend with ever expanding European wine surpluses. Acreage of premium European vines is limited and is not expanding."(2l) There is 23 some reason to believe that an imaginative marketing strategy will be able to establish high quality Long Island wines in the growing premium end of the market. It will not be easy. QUALITY: The foundation of any premium wine region must be the quality of the wine it produces. On this question, there is every reason for optimism that Eastern Long Island can grow to its maximum potential as one of the world's fine wine regions. The natural setting of Eastern Long Island, especially the North Fork, is conducive to growing high quality vinifera grapes, from which premium wines are made in the best wine regions of the world. The soil and microclimatic conditions are close to those found in Bordeaux and the Napa Valley.(22) It is "the perfect combination for excellent wine grapes.~(23) Despite the newness of area wine making, Long Island wines have already achieved promising critical notice. Writing in one of the leading wine course books in the United States, Kevin Zraly says that Long Island is a "very exciting region to watch...more and more wineries...will be producing world-class wines in the next few years."(24) After discussing the wineries of the Finger Lakes and Hudson Valley regions, Hugh Johnson goes on to say that "Still more encouraging is the creation of a new vineyard area on the North Fork of the eastern end of Long Island."(25) Writing in the latest edition of his classic encyclopedia, Alexis Lichine refers to Long Island as "one of the most promising viticultural areas in the United States."(26) We saw earlier that grape prices for a given variety from the same region can vary enormously, depending on their quality. It is not enough to plant vinifera grapes. They must be raised carefully to produce high quality fruit. It is not enough to make a wine with a varietal name. Great skill and care must be exercised to create a fine wine. The potential for Long Island to develop into a first rate wine region depends critically on the availability of highly skilled and creative growers and wine makers, and an array of technical support staff. At the moment, there are some skilled and resourceful people pushing the young industry ahead, but there is much inexperience and more talent will have to be attracted to the area for it to be fully successful. It is difficult for a new entrant in any business to compete for the best talent. With the promise of pioneer work, a good start has been made. As the industry gains in stature, it will be able gradually to attract still more capable and experienced people. 24 Suffolk County wisely has begun to support a full time grape specialist for Eastern Long Island, in co- operation with Cornell University. The funding initially is on a year to year basis. The position should be made permanent. An enologist should be added to the co- operative extension staff to provide much needed technical assistance to the fledgling wine industry. TOURIST FLOWS: Experienced wine makers commonly say that high quality wine does not sell itself. Often told as a lament, the observation underscores the importance of marketing and the need to consider all available marketing channels carefully when assessing the prospects of a single winery or an entire region. Direct retail sale of. wine through the tasting room is an important marketing channel for any small winery. The ability to receive full market value for the sale, free from discounts to merchants or wholesalers, adds to the net income of the winery, despite the costs of building and operating the tasting room. Sales through the tasting room rely on flows of tourists. To estimate the relationship between tourist flows, overnight accommodation requirements, and the wine industry, several assumptions and calculations are required. From Table II, we know that if all acreage now owned by vineyards were planted to grapes, about 1,500 acres of vines would produce in Suffolk County. This would supply input for 3.94 million bottles of wine (see Table XIV). At the most extreme, assume that all wine must be sold through the tasting room. Of course, this is never the case, but if we know what the tourist requirement is to sell all the wine this way, it will be easy to scale the number down by whatever fraction of total sales we eventually assign to the tasting room. The number of visitors required to sell 3.94 million bottles of wine depends completely on the number of bottles of wine an average visitor buys when s/he comes to a winery. There is a wide range of experience. One study of New York wineries found through a survey that in 1979 in the Finger Lakes region, an average visitor bought 3.45 bottles of wine, while in Southeastern New York (principally the Hudson Valley) the average visitor bought only 1.75 bottles.(27) Two winery owners in Virginia who had measured the flows for their own wineries in 1986 said that they sell more than 2 bottles of wine per visitor. However, owners of two small wineries on Long Island each thought that as many as 150 people would have to come through in order to sell 100 bottles of wine, although they emphasized that 25 they had not actually measured the flows. No data are available for Napa Valley experience on this matter. From the range of available experience, it would appear conservative to expect that Long Island wineries will sell on average one bottle of wine to each visitor. To sell the full wine production of 1,500 acres through area tasting rooms, therefore, 3.94 million people would have to pass through them. Since the average visitor goes to more than one winery when coming to the area, a smaller number of people are required as tourists to account for any given number of winery visits. A study conducted by the Napa Valley Vintners Association in 1983 found that the average visitor to a winery in Napa Valley visited 1.6 wineries in the Valley.(28) Applying this ratio, 2.46 million tourist would have to come to the North Fork to generate 3.94 million visits to area tasting rooms. Most tourists drawn to the wineries will be day trippers not requiring overnight accommodations. In Napa Valley, located about as far from San Francisco as the North Fork is from New York City, about 13% of visitors stay overnight in commercial accommodations.(29) This ratio implies that 320,000 people would stay overnight on Eastern Long' Island over a year, if the entire wine production from 1,500 acres were to be sold to tourists. The visitors will be concentrated in the seven month period April through October, when the harvest and crush ends. Spreading the tourists evenly over 210 days yields a daily accommodations requirement for 1,524 people, enough to fill 762 rooms on the average night. Since a relatively greater flow of tourists can be expected on week-ends, the peak demand for rooms will be higher than the simple average. The fraction of wine actually sold through tasting rooms varies greatly with the size of the winery. If 20% is taken as a reasonable average for the region, then 304 people per night (20% of 1,524) would have to find accommodations in the area through the seven month period, occupying 152 rooms. To calculate the accommodations requirement for any fraction of sales through the tasting room, multiply the fraction by the 1,524 people needing a place to stay if all wine is sold directly to tourists. If the whole 7,000 acres of grapes were planted on the North Fork, and all the wine made in the area, 1,418 people would require accommodations on an average night from April to October, assuming that 20% of the wine must be sold through tasting rooms. If visitors buy more than one bottle of wine each, as is the practice elsewhere, tourist requirements decline. If visitors go to more than 1.6 wineries per trip, tourist 26 . requirements also decline. The California experience that 13% of visitors stay overnight is consistent with available evidence on the home of visitors to Long Island wineries. Table XV shows the home of visitors to Pindar Winery, as recorded in the winery guest book for the three month period April _ June, 1986. It seems likely that most of the visitors from beyond the New York City and Long Island area came as guests with friends or relations from the area. They then required overnight accomodations in about the same proportion as the rest of the visitors. If all Long Island visitors are day trippers, and all New Yorkers require an overnight in the area, then about 12% of total visitors need accommodations. TABLE XV HOME OF VISITORS TO PINDAR WINERY April 1 - July 2, 1986 Home Location Number of Registrations % of Total Suffolk County Nassau County New York City Other Total 984 284 175 367 1,810 54% 16 10 20 100 Source: Pindar Winery Guest Registration Books We have seen that a reasonable set of assumptions leads to a conclusion that if all 1,500 acres now owned by vineyards on Eastern Long Island were planted in grapes, and all the wine were produced in the area, associated tourist flows would require 152 rooms a night for the seven-month season. This is well less than half of the '79 hotel and motel rooms available in Southold Town, and a small part of the 4,302 rooms available in the five East End towns, without counting bed and breakfast rooms.(30) The grape and wine industry is of course not the main tourist attraction on the East End, so the demand for accommodations projected above may not be met by existing commercial facilities. A full study of tourist flows, the availability of hotel, motel, and bed and breakfast rooms on the East End, and their occupancy rates, must still be done. Such a study is necessary to know the degree to . which a Possible lack of tourist accommodations may constrain the growth of the wine industry, and the extent to which a growing wine industry will compete with other users of hotels and motels in the area. The wine industry ooes, however, attract tourists well beyond the normal Summer season, and will provide a solid basis for e~tending the tourist trade through the grape harvest. 77 IMBALANCE OF GRAPE ACREAGE AND WINERY CAPACITY: The tourist projections derived above assumed that all grapes grown in the area were made into wine on Eastern Long Island. Actually, this is not true. The fact that Long Island winery capacity lags far behind planted grape acreage is a major problem for the industry. Excess grapes must be sold elsewhere, and the market for vinifera grapes on the East Coast is near saturation. There are about 950 acres of vinifera grapes planted on Long Island. Table XVI shows how Long Island fits in with other areas growing vinifera grapes on the East Coast. TABLE XVI ESTIMATED EAST COAST VINIFERA ACREAGE - 1986 Area Planted Vinifera Acreage Virginia Long Island Upstate New York Other Total 1,000 950 550 1,000 3,400 Source: author's survey Eastern Long Island vineyards will harvest about 650 acres of vinifera grapes in 1986. Assuming an average yield of 2.5 tons per acre, there will be enough grapes to make about 232,000 gallons of wine, compared with the 188,000 gallons of winery capacity in the area. In two years, the full 950 acres will bear, at a more mature average 3 tons per acre, enough to support almost 430,000 gallons of capacity. If the industry achieves its desired yield of 3.5 tons per acre, current plantings will support about 500,000 gallons of capacity. Long Island growers will have to sell more than 290 tons of vinifera grapes off the Island in 1986, the crop in excess of local wine making capacity. This will put a strain on prices. When another 113,000 gallons of capacity now under construction comes on line in 1987, local demand will about balance supply. Subsequent years will require continual expansion of winery capacity if Long Island grapes are to find an adequate market. Long Island wines are a tiny fraction of the New York market for premium wine. Long Island vinifera grapes, however, are a substantial fraction of the East Coast market. If no additional winery capacity is built for 1988, and 3.5 tons per acre are harvested on Long Island, the fruit from 380 acres of grapes will have to find a 28 market elsewhere, more than a third of the crop. This would add about 15% to the supply available outside Long Island, and is sure to have a depressing effect on grape prices. One step Southold Town might take to address this problem is to make clear to the industry and the public that additional winery capacity is a public policy goal. Whether by allowing free standing wineries, or by streamlining procedures for the review of applications and site plans for new wineries, Eastern Long Island Towns can influence the course of investment in the industry. RISKS AND THE HIGH COSTS OF ENTRY: Another serious economic obstacle to industry growth is the high initial investment required, whether for land, the establishment of a vineyard, or the construction and outfitting of a winery. The problem is exacerbated by the reluctance of banks to finance investment in the industry. Some banks on the East End will not lend money to support investment in a new vineyard or winery, unless they have a pre- existing long standing business relationship with the applicant. The attitude is that investment in the wine industry on Long Island is so risky that it is not appropriate for a bank to handle it. In this view, underwriting the industry belongs in the realm of venture capital. This is exactly the policy now being followed by Bank of America, which has historically been the leading banker to the California wine industry. In the currently troubled wine market, Bank of America will not loan money to support any new vineyard or winery. Their officers also refer to venture capital as a source of financing. Prices paid for Southold Town land intended for vineyards passed $10,000 an acre in 1986. In Napa Valley, bare land can cost $25,000 an acre, if it 1s available at all, and one planted vineyard sold for over $40,000 an acre in 1986. "Vineyard values in the (Napa Valley area) continued to climb despite surplus grape supplies because of continued growth in premium wine consumption and the future limitations in high-quality wine grape acreage."(3l) Southold Town land prices are high by historic standards in the area. But North Fork grape acreage is naturally severely limited, as it is in Napa Valley, here surrounded by the sea, there by mountains. High land prices can be sustained by the ability to produce a high value product on this strictly limited base. While no grower or wine maker wants high land prices, the fact that North Fork land can produce fine premium wine indicates that high land prices need not be an insurmountable barrier to agricultural growth. No one can say whether the grape and wine industry will be able to flourish on Eastern Long Island. It is a risky proposition. While the technical capacity to build a world class wine region exists, great skill, dedication, imagination, and luck will be needed to overcome the obstacles described above. Despite the risks, there are reasons to believe that each obstacle can be overcome, and that a viable, broadly based grape and wine industry might be established on the North Fork and adjoining Towns on Eastern Long Island. In some respects, the outcome will be influenced by public policy, to which we now turn our attention. PUBLIC POLICY ISSUES The growth of vineyards and wineries brings with it questions of public policy, especially with regard to taxes and zoning. The North Fork is beginning to experience intense pressure for development, and stands ready to go the route already travelled by previously rural areas further west in Suffolk and Nassau Counties. Policy towards the grape and wine industry is one aspect of the larger policy response to these development pressures. . As suburban development pressure reaches a rural area, land prices are bid up. Higher land prices put a double burden on the farmer: 1) higher taxes, to the degree the farmland is taxed in proportion to market value rather than economic value in agriculture; 2) higher land values, making it more difficult to justify economically the continued use of the land in farming, especially for low value crops. Under these economic pressures, farmers tend to sell land to developers, if not immediately, then as the farm passes between generations. Farmland tends to shift to higher value crops, in relation to costs, to support the higher taxes and land values. On Long Island, a shift out of potatoes and vegetables into sod and nursery stock has come at the initial stages of agricultural decline in many areas of Western Suffolk and Nassau Counties. This pattern is now being repeated on the North Fork, as sod and nursery operations move in from western towns where development has finally overwhelmed agriculture. At present, the North Fork has no zoning protection for agriculture. Every farm can be sold off in two acre plots for development, a process which has accelerated in recent years. Commercial establishments have spread along the Main Road and the North Road between hamlets. The rural character of the area is slipping away, yet it is exactly a rural character which will attract, and then be sustained by, grape growing for premium wineries. 30 Eastern Long Island is in a better position to resist traditional development pressure because it can sustain a grape and wine industry. If it can be established, a wine region on the North Fork would be a strong basis for long term continued agriculture. An established wine region is an extremely valuable economic asset, not easily swept aside. We have already seen that growing grapes and making wine are economically viable activities on the North Fork. We have seen that this industry generates more jobs and a greater volume of intermediate purchases than any other agricultural use of the land. But the grape and wine industry cannot take hold unless agricultural land itself is protected from development. This is the task of the zoning ordinance. . . CREATING AN AGRICULTURAL PRESERVE: In the mid- 1960's, Napa County California was experiencing the beginnings of development pressure from the San Francisco Bay Area, an hour or so away. The entire agricultural valley was zoned for one acre plots, and subdivisions were multiplying. To hold back the development of the area as a bedroom community, in 1968 the County Board of Super- visors created an Agricultural Preserve, encompassing the entire Napa Valley floor, in which a 20 acre minimum plot size was enforced. Later the minimum was raised to 40 acres, where it stands today. . This strict protection of agricultural land from non- agricultural uses has been extremely effective in preserving the rural character of Napa Valley. Many other counties in the United States have created similar zoning classifications to hold agricultural land free from all non-agricultural uses. The preservation of agriculture is a stated goal of the Southold Town Master Plan. In the context of heavy development pressure now confronting the Town, strict zoning protection for agriculture is necessary. The best way to accomplish this is to create an agricultural preserve, in which very large lot zoning will effectively restrict housing, and in which commercial development will not take place. The detailed boundaries for such a preserve will be debated at length. Roughly defined, it should be bounded on the west by the Riverhead/Southold Town Line, on the east by Horton Road on the western edge of the hamlet of Southold, on the south by the Main Road, and on the north by Sound Avenue, Bergen Avenue, Oregon Road, and the North Road. This area contains approximately 9,000 acres of farmland. 31 The area just defined is still more or less a contiguous mass of farmland. It is the foundation of agriculture in Southold Town, and gives the area its rural setting. Preserving agriculture in Southold Town means preserving this block of land for farming. The appropriate size of lot for an agricultural preserve is much debated across the country. If the land is to be used for farming, the minimum lot size must be large enough to sustain a farm family. It is not clear how to determine such a size, since it will vary by crop. Still, it is possible to arrive at a reasonable and practical estimate for Southold Town. In Suffolk County in 1982, there were 797 farms, whose average size was 63 acres. 70% of these farms (554) provided the principal occupation and livelihood for the operator. It seems reasonable to assume that the 243 farms which did not provide the principal livelihood to their operator were among the smallest farms. Since there were 331 farms of a size one to nine acres in the County, we can conclude that 88 small farms were able to sustain their operator. Taking into account the size distribution of the remaining farms, about half the farms in Suffolk County which could support an operator were 52 acres or less.(32) On the basis of Suffolk County experience, it is reasonable and practical to apply a 25 acre minimum lot size in an agricultural preserve. This lot size would mean that a farm would have to be a minimum 50 acres before it could be divided. This corresponds to the median size of an economically viable farm in the County. A 25 acre lot will sustain an economically viable farm. In 1982, it was sufficient to sustain about two thirds of all farm operators in the County, without reference to specific crop. A 25 acre farm planted in grapes would be economically viable if well managed, and certainly viable if a 10,000 gallon winery were built to process the grapes grown on 20 acres. An agricultural preserve covering 9,000 acres of prime Southold farmland restricted to 25 acre plots would be effective in preserving the rural character of the area. It would be economically sound because there are a number of proven agricultural activities, not just grapes, which can sustain a family on a 25 acre farm. Existing farms less than 25 acres, and other preexisting zoned uses within the preserve, would be protected by a "grandfather clause." A zoned agricultural preserve should be augmented by other public policies designed to keep land in farming. The Town and County should continue to purchase development rights. Farmers should continue to be 32 encouraged to place their land in an agricultural district in exchange for lower taxes and freedom to farm without nuisance suits by non-agricultural neighbors. It may seem redundant and a waste of money to add such measures to the zoning protection, but zoning can be changed by a single vote. To guard the agricultural character of the area from political vicissitudes, other long term commitments to farming need to be in place. ZONING FOR WINERIES: Beyond the general zoning required broadly to protect agriculture, wineries present special zoning issues that seem to be very difficult to solve. The problem is that a winery typically combines three types of economic activity: farming, industrial processing, and commercial sales. It is the commercial activity which raises the most difficulty in the community. Wineries have been in operation in Southold Town for less than ten years. Wineries have been in Napa Valley for over 125 years. Napa Valley political and industry leaders are still struggling to write an operational definition of a winery, faced with the same controversies that have already arisen in Southold. "The question before the [Napa County Planning] Commission today is what activities beyond the actual making, bottling and selling of wine at an established winery are or should be recognized by the County as part of a normal winery's operations, as an accessory use or rejected as a non- agricultural commercial activity."(33) The question just posed has not yet been resolved in Napa County. A review of the Napa Valley experience does, however, provide helpful guides for Suffolk County. Authorities there have done more to address the issues than in Virginia or Upstate New York, where wineries are much more spread out, where tourism is not so intense, and where zoning still can be quite informal, or even non- existent. ! , Limited commercial activity is allowed at Napa Valley wineries. Beyond tours, tastings, and the sale of wine made by the winery, a limited array of wine-related products are sold, including wine glasses, cork pullers, and T-shirts showing the winery name. Other promotional events are allowed, often with restrictions. For example, any concert or special musical event must be authorized by a use permit, which is granted only if the winery can show that the proceeds will go to a local charity or community organization. The use permit also requires adequate parking, sanitation, and safety provisions for the event. Serving meals can be allowed in connection with private parties or with a promotional cooking school. 33 The problem in Napa Valley is to allow wineries to undertake those commercial activities necessary and appropriate to their survival as wineries, and prevent a business establishment from operating a restaurant, retail store, concert hall, inn, or other commercial venture under the guise of a winery. Tasteful restraint by the industry and general common sense have been the principal means by which boundaries have been set on winery operations in Napa Valley. Recent pressures to take advantage of the exceptional tourist trade, particularly in the context of a wine industry in some economic distress, have broken past restraint, and Napa County now is engaged in the task of making explicit some limitations which heretofore have been understood. In a striking parallel with Southold Town, Napa authorities shut down one winery earlier this year because the winery had overstepped the bounds of accepted commercial use. Recent proposed legislation in Napa County would limit the size of kitchen facilities to make it impossible to cook for more than a few people, thereby making a restaurant in the guise of a winery impractical. Similarly, proposed legislation would restrict the area allowed for sales. In Napa County, a small winery does not need a use permit to operate on a vineyard in the agricultural preserve area. The winery is treated as an agricultural processing facility allowed farmers for their own crop in agricultural-zoned areas. If a winery wants to exceed the bounds of commercial activity allowed for a farm winery, it must locate in a commercial zone. . In Virg:nia, state law allows a vineyard to set up a farm winery as a matter of right on agricultural land, as long as its wine is made from at least 5l~ fruit grown by the farm. There are about 35 farm wineries in Virginia, the largest producing about 30,000 gallons a year. Most are very small, even by Long Island standards. No conflicts have arisen between Virginia wineries and local zoning authorities regarding commercial activity. The New York State Farm Winery Act, first passed in 1976, permits a relatively broad range of commercial activity for farm wineries. In addition to the wine and wine related supplies allowed to be sold elsewhere, the New York law permits the sale of "any food or food product not specifically prepared for immediate consumption on the premises." Any souvenir of the winery or of New York State may also be sold. To be considered a farm winery in New York, the winery must produce less than 50,000 gallons of wine a year, and it must make wine from fruit grown "exclusively" 34 in New York State. A winery of greater capacity, or which uses out-of-state fruit, must be licensed as a commercial winery. Commercial wineries are also allowed a broad range of commercial activity, but must pay a higher license fee. Conflict has arisen in Southold Town because a farm winery has come to exceed 50,000 gallons capacity, yet wants to continue operations although not in a commercial zone. There is no need to require a winery with capacity greater than 50,000 gallons to locate in a commercial zone, nor is there a need to convert agricultural zoning to commercial in order to accomodate the growing winery. The Town Board may wish to authorize a use permit for a commercial size winery, including restrictions which require it to operate under all rules for a farm winery other than size, and which make clear that the use permit is restricted to the winery, and does not run with the land as a permanent variance to commercial status. . TOURISM, COMMERCIAL ZONING, AND GENTRIFICATION: As the grape and wine industry grows on the North Fork, the area will certainly become a greater tourist attraction. Aside from traffic congestion, heavy tourist flows can have a negative effect on local people if shops catering to the tourist trade replace merchants who have provided important services to the community. The North Fork has historically attracted a summer tourist population. The tourist flow drawn by a wine industry will not just involve greater numbers than before; it will bring a different type of tourist. .The wine related tourist will be more transient, staying a day or two at most, if staying overnight at all. This fact explains why tourism related to the wine industry will tend to distort the local commercial mix in a way not yet experienced on the North Fork. Transient tourists demand services very different from those required by tourists who stay in the area for an extended period, in a summer home or rented cottage. The transient tourist has no need for a hardware store or shoe repair or dry cleaning services; no need for a locksmith or store that sells work clothes or household appliances. Yet these are products demanded by "resident tourists" and local people alike. The transient tourist wants souvenirs, restaurant meals, designer clothes and trendy art objects. Transient tourists, especially those attracted by the premium end of the wine market, also bring money to back up their desires. The result, when left to market forces, tends to favor the transient tourist over the local resident and resident tourist. Rents in commercial buildings go up, and merchants catering to the transient tourist come to 35 dominate commercial uses, as the high rents drive out of business or to other, more remote, locations the basic services which are essential to the life and character of a rural community. Main street is not simply more crowded with cars; it has entirely different stores and merchants. There is no question that a growing grape and wine industry will generate these pressures. Fortunately, at least two sources of experience and guidance exist to help Southold Town deal with them. Communities in Napa Valley have begun to address commercial land use through zoning, and urban neighborhoods across the country have devised many responses to gentrification, a process which includes the commercial changes experienced as the wine industry develops. The City of St.Helena, in Napa County, is debating an amendment to its zoning ordinance which would create four commercial districts, including a "local serving commer- cial district to provide an appropriate location for com- mercial uses which serve the everyday needs of local residents. Uses which do not serve local residents are not appropriate in these locations." The proposed ordi- nance includes a detailed list of almost 150 commercial activities, allocating them across the proposed zoning districts.(34) The debate surrounding this legislation will be instructive for all people who face the issues. In many ways, the economic strains to which the North Fork is just becoming subject parallel the process of gentrification experienced in all the major urban centers of the country. As professional people and business executives settle into an area traditionally inhabited by working-class and minority populations, the neighborhood changes. Housing costs rise and traditional residents, or their children, can no longer afford to live there. Shops and stores change to reflect the tastes and spending power of the new population, often accompanied by resentment and friction with traditional residents. New condominiums are built, which overload streets with traffic and disrupt existing skylines. New political forces are set in motion, challenging traditional leadership to find ways to accommodate sharply conflicting interests. Community groups have formed in most major U.S. cities to address the problems of gentrification. Every borough of New York City has experience. Residents of the North Fork might gain helpful insights by contacting some neighborhood organizations in New York City to find out more about the dynamics of gentrification, and what communities have done to protect the interests of their residents while accommodating inevitable change. . Change is coming to the North Fork, with or without a grape and wine industry. Undoubtedly, the presence of a premium wine region so close to New York City and Boston will contribute to a rural gentrification of the area. But the dedication of North Fork land to condominiums, expensive summer homes, retirement homes, and housing for professional people working in Riverhead and Brookhaven Towns will also put stress on the present residents of the Town, and will be a gentrification of a different type. The lack of affordable housing in the Town is an early sign of gentrification, not at all the result of the grape and wine industry. LOCAL GOVERNMENT FINANCE: With respect to local government finance, the extension of grape acreage in place of other crops in the area will not have remarkable direct consequences. Farmland planted in grapes is assessed at the same value as 'land planted to other crops. If devel- opment rights are sold, Southold Town assessments are reduced by the same proportion on vineyards as on other farmland. . There are two ways in which vineyards may pay higher taxes than other farmland: 1) if the land is in an agricultural district, and 2) if the local authorities choose to tax the poles and trellises supporting the vines as a capital improvement to the land. If a vineyard is in an agricultural district, it is entitled to a reduction in property tax, as is any such farm. The lower assessment is supposed to reflect the lower value of land dedicated to agriculture, based on the economic return to the farm, compared with the market value of the land when exposed to development pressure. The New York State Board of Equalization and Assessment imposes an add-on to the (reduced) assessed value of land planted to orchards, and a larger add-on to vineyards, to reflect the fact that orchard and vineyard land has a higher economic value as a farm than other crops. The most recent add-on for vineyards on Long Island is $990 an acre, almost doubling the assessed value of vineyards compared with other crops planted on land in the same mineral soil group. Even with this add-on, the vineyard owner realizes a tax saving by putting the land in an agricultural district. When a vineyard is established, over $1,000 an acre is expended to put in poles and wires for the trellises that support the grape vines. New York State law allows local authorities to consider the trellis a capital improvement to the land, just like a barn, and to assess the poles and wires as a capital improvement, in addition to the land assessment. Actual practice varies around the State. In Upstate counties, poles and wires are in fact taxed, whereas Southold Town has not exercised its option 37 to impose such a tax on local vineyards. In Napa County, vineyards are assessed for poles and wires, increasing the tax paid by about $90 per acre per year. Vineyards will generate significantly greater revenue than other agricultural land uses, indirectly, because of the associated wineries and the tourist flows attracted by them. Wineries have already added millions of dollars of capital improvement to Suffolk County agricultural land. Many more millions will follow as the industry grows. To the degree that vineyards attract a greater tourist flow, and to the degree that the additional tourists spend money in the Town or County, additional sales tax revenue accrues to local government. Hotels and motels in Napa County assess a 10% tax on overnight room charges, as do many areas with substantial transient tourist flows. To judge the impact of such an accomodations tax on local government revenue, consider the tourist flows projected above in connection with the analysis of direct sales by wineries from their tasting rooms. If 20% of the wine made from 1,500 acres of grapes were sold directly to tourists, travelers would demand 152 rooms per night for the seven month season April-October. At an average rate of $65 per night, this would generate a total direct expense of $2.07 million in the area. The consequent $207,000 in revenue from a 10% tax would be divided between State, County, and Town governments according to whatever formula would be included in the legislation creating the tax. Increased revenue from tourist flows is not pure gain to local government. Tourists cost local government substantial amounts of money in police protection and road construction and maintenance. Until a detailed study of the extent, costs and potential revenues for tourism is done for Eastern Long Island, the full tax implications of the wine industry can not be fully understood. While vineyards may generate somewhat greater tax revenues than other agriculture, many people claim that farming of any sort provides less net revenue to local government than housing built on the land. However, the most recent study of the impact of residential development on local government finance in an agricultural area con- cludes "that over a wide range of densities (0.2 units per acre to 4.5 units per acre) the ongoing public costs of new residential development will exceed the revenues from such development."(35) The study notes that most previous analyses of the question have come to the same basic conclusion. . 38 , The American Farmland Trust study just cited limits its attention to residential development, without considering the tax implications of associated commercial growth. Adding in the net revenue effect of commercial development may, or may not, alter the end result. In any event, for one reason or another residents of suburban communities pay higher property taxes than residents of rural communities, and local governments in suburban areas have both greater revenues and greater expenditures than their rural counterparts. CONCLUSION . The North Fork is confronted with a choice. It can easily go the route of residential and commercial development so typical of the history of Western Long Island and other fringe areas of metropolitan centers across the country. Or it can preserve its agricultural and rural character. Residential development may, or may not, relieve the tax burden felt by current local residents, but when marginal tax considerations are compared with choices about the very character of the area, it seems wise to focus thought on the broader issues of the kind of community the North Fork will be. When Louisa and Alex Hargrave demonstrated that vinifera grapes can be grown on the North Fork and made into fine wine, they discovered a precious resource that makes Eastern Long Island a unique spot in the New York metropolitan area. The fact that the North Fork has the technical and economic potential of becoming a fine wine region means that the area has the potential to go a different path from the rest of Long Island, based on agriculture as the highest and best use of the land. The land base for a Long Island fine wine region is severely limited by nature. Its core is the central portion of the North Fork, 7,000 acres surrounded by the sea. Augmented by at most a few thousand acres in Riverhead and on the South Fork, there is nowhere else for fine wine to originate in the area. Once established, the land in such a region will be extremely valuable exactly because it is absolutely limited despite demand for it. No suitable alternative land is available. Further, the value of the land will be supported by the value of the wine produced from it, as is the case in Napa Valley. For nearly 350 years, the North Fork has had a viable eccnomic base as an agricultural and fishing community. Economically and culturally, it has been distant from New York City, oriented more towards its historic roots in New England. The North Fork has attracted a regular summer tourist population which has respected the rural character of the area and supplemented the local economy, providing an additional source of employment and income. 39 . ~ The traditional balance among agriculture, fishing, and tourism is now irreversibly challenged by residential and commercial development. The Southold Town Master Plan calls for a continuation of the historic three-legged economy for the area, but does not say how these activities can be secured in the face of mounting pressures to the contrary. This is the principal local problem facing the North Fork community. Agriculture can be preserved if adequate zoning is in place and vigorously enforced to protect the rural character of the area, and if crops can be grown which economically justify the use of the land for farming. Based on experience allover the country, agricultural land which can be divided into one, two, or five acre plots will be divided and swallowed 'up piece by piece over a period of years by residential and commercial uses. The short run economic advantages of continual subdivision will dominate the market, which has no adequate mechanism to evaluate the long term social benefits derived from creating or maintaining a particular character for an entire area. This is the task of zoning. When I began this study, I did not anticipate the great significance of large lot zoning for Southold Town. If Southold Town acts to establish an agricultural preserve with 25 acre minimum plots, there are significant reasons to be optimistic that the grape and wine industry on Long Island can help to secure agriculture as the highest and best use of the land. Initial investments in the industry, although providing tax advantages to their owners, are based on the expectations of, and genuine prospects for, long term economic profit. Suffolk County and Southold Town have been among the pioneers in the United States in implementing the purchase of development rights to keep farmland in farming. These policies are known and respected in California, Upstate New York, and Virginia, among the many places which have struggled to find practical ways to sustain agriculture when development pressures mount. Some of these areas have had success using large lot zoning as another weapon in the battle. Suffolk County and East End Towns would be wise to study and apply their experience, as they have done with ours. Southold Town now faces the most profound set of local issues it has seen in many years. Perhaps not since it was first settled has the very character of the area been so deeply challenged. There are extremely powerful forces operating to turn the region into a residential area with associated commercial districts, and a tourist trade drawn by the surrounding waters. . 40 . , There is nothing inevitable about this outcome. The fact that the North Fork could become a world class wine region gives the community a choice to preserve agriculture, for grapes and many other crops as well. The preservation of agriculture, however, cannot mean that there will be no change on the North Fork. Change and development must come. Usually the term "developer" has connoted residential, industrial, or commercial development, as though those economic activities were the only ones to bring progress. On the North Fork, development can also be driven by agriculture. I [ . 41 . 14. Gerald B. White, "Economic Opportunities for Fruit," in NEW YORK AGRICULTURE 2000, New York State Oepartment of Agriculture and Markets, 1985, p.119 15. See Gerald B. White, "Economic Opportunities for Fruit," op.cit. Table 1, p.115; and Kirby Moulton, "The Economics of Wine in California," in BOOK OF CALIFORNIA WINE, University of California Press/Sotheby Publications, 1984, p.300 16. IMPACT, June 1, 1986, p.3 17. Frederick L. Cannon, Economist at Bank of America, San Francisco, in "Wine Industry Study," an unpublished internal Bank of America report, 1985, p.7 18. Bruce Steinberg, FORTUNE MAGAZINE, November, 1983 19. WINES & VINES, July, 1986, pp.25 and 31 20. Frederick Cannon, op.cit., p.6 21. F.L.Cannon, op.cit., p.6 22. Thomas H.E.Cottrell, "Smooth Sailing for Long Island Vineyards," in WINES & VINES, November, 1983, pp.lOO-l03. Richard T. Harbich, "Vinifera Growing on Long Island," in VINIFERA WINE GROWERS JOURNAL, Winter, 1982, pp.215-219 23. PATTERSON'S CALIFORNIA BEVERAGE JOURNAL, Los Angeles, October, 1984 24. Kevin Zraly, WINDOWS ON THE WORLD COMPLETE WINE COURSE, Sterling, New York, 1985 25. Hugh Johnson, THE WORLD ATLAS OF WINE, Simon and Schuster, New York, 1985, p.264 26. Alexis Lichine, NEW ENCYCLOPEDIA OF WINES AND SPIRITS, 4th Edition, Knopf, New York, 1985, p.540. 27. Richard C. Cooper, SOME ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF SMALL WINERIES IN NEW YORK, Department of Agricultural Economics, Cornell University, 1981, p.15 28. reported in NAPA VALLEY TOURISM PROJECT, a study done by ESA, San Francisco, November, 1984, p.13 29. derived from data in NAPA VALLEY TOURISM PROJECT report 30. George Fey, Long Island Tourism and Convention Commission, phone conversation, July 7,1986. The LITCC estimate for Southold is less than the 553 rooms reported in the Southold Town Master Plan Update Background Studies 43 '. ~ 31. F.L.Cannon, op.cit., p.7 32. Derived from 1982 CENSUS OF AGRICULTURE, New York, County Data, United States Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, p.126 33. "What is a Winery?" Memorandum to Napa County Conservation-Development and Planning Department, from James Hickey, Director, November 6, 1985 34. Second Draft Proposed Ordinance of City of St.Helena Amending Commercial District Regulations, June 17, 1986 35. DENSITY RELATED PUBLIC COST, American Farmland Trust, Washington, D.C., 1986, p.39 I - 44