HomeMy WebLinkAboutForecast of Aviation Demand
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Downstate New York
General Aviation
System Plan
~
Forecast of Aviation
Demand
Interim Report
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Downstate New York General Aviation
System Plan
Forecast of General Aviation """'.n.!
Prepared for
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New York State Department of Transportation
June, 1984
CRESS & ASSOCIATES, INC.
AVIATION CONSULTANTS
2692 Richmond Road, Box 22397
Lexington, Kentucky 40522
(606) 269-5312
Introcluction
The forecasts for the Downstate New York study area focus upon the growth in aviation
demand at the region's airports by the year 2005. The forecasts center primarily on the
general aviation segment of demand and include commercial aviation demand at airports
other than the Port Authority airports. This report is organized as follows:
Forecast Methodologies
Forecast of Airline Demand
Forecast of Military Demand
Forecast of General Aviation Demand
Stmnnary
The forecasts presented in theae sectiona are based upon historical data and aviation
trends of airports in the study area. Forecasts were made for each network airport in
the study region. It should be noted here that the forecasts were made under the
assumption that airport facilities would not be a constraining factor. In reality, this
mayor may not prove to be the case. The forecasts, then, give an indication of the
potential demand that can be realized if and only if facilities are available in the
region. Where additional facilities are not available, or a decision is made to halt
further development of the airport, forecast demand may exceed capacity during the
forecast period. Again, these are only stated in terms of potential and in reality, would
never reach the forecast level due to structural capacities at the airports.
Forecast Hethodologies
This section describes the primary forecasting techniques used to develop projections
of aviation demand. These techniques employ statistical analyses and can be readily
updated. For the projections of aviation demand, a two-step methodology was used. First,
several independent projections - socioeconomic regression, per capita trend, and share of
the market - were developed for each demand element, as appropriate.
The second step in the process was judgmental. Each of the projections was examined
in the context of the economic base of the study area and the possible impact on improved
facilities and service. Consideration of these factors, combined with previous
forecasting experience at similar airports, led to a subjective determination as to the
validity of the various projections. If more than one projection appeared valid, or if
the true forecast was believed to fall between an upper and lower range, the selected or
preferred forecast became an average of the projections. The selected forecasts, as a
result, contain all the desired features of both objective and subjective analyses.
Of the independent projections, the socioeconomic regression and per capita trend
utilize two basic analytical tools, regression analysis and time series least square
analysis. The term ''regression analysis" refers to the statistical technique by which
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estimates are made of the values of a dependent variable from a knowledge of the values of
one or more other variables, called independent variables.
Time series least square analysis, called trend analysis, fits historical data to
classical growth curves and extends the demand element into future periods. The most
Common growth curves are in the form of linear, exponential, and logarithmic equations.
In this study, the equational form of projections most often selected was linear, based
upon a least squares fit.
To measure the relationship between variables either in a regression or trend
analysis, the coefficient of correlation was used. The coefficient ~f correlation or R
value is simply the square root of the coefficient of determination, R. The R2 statistic
indicates whether the relationship between dependent and independent variables is
significant by explaining the percentage of variation in the dependent variable associated
with the variation in the independent variable. The R statistic not only indicates
whether the relationship is significant, but also indicates whether the relationship is
direct or inverse by inCluding a positive or negative sign before the statistic. R values
under 0.70 do not represent strong enough relationships between dependent and independent
variables to be deemed significant.
SOCIOECONOMIC REGRESSION PROJECTION
The socioeconomic regression projection is based upon an assumed causal relationship
between population or income . and aviation activity in a particular area. To obtain this
projection of demand, socioeconomic data are related via regression analysis to aviation
activity. The resulting set of regression equations, coupled with independent projections
of future socioeconomic data, produces a projection of aviation activity.
For the Downstate New York General Aviation System Plan, two socioeconomic variables
were used in the regression analysis:
Population
Per Capita Personal Income (PCPI)
In some cases, these variables were strongly correlated to the growth in aviation
activity; in other cases they were not. For the most part, however, they were helpful in
establishing the reasonableness of the various projections generated.
PER CAPITA TREND PROJECTION
A per capita trend projection is derived as a function of historical aviation
activity per capita or per unit of population. Historical aviation activity to population
ratios were examined snd projected via time series least squares (trend) analysis.
Application of the resulting per capita ratios to forecasts of population yielded
project ions of aviation activity.
Per capita trend projection were made for two segments of aviation demand in the
region: airline enplanements and registered aircraft. Per capita ratios for airline
enplanements were based upon population in service areas for the air service points in the
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region except John F. Kennedy and La Guardia. For registered aircraft projections, per
capita ratioa were baaed upon corresponding forecasting region totals of population and
regiatered aircraft.
MARKET SHARE PROJECTION
Market ahare projections were developed for each airport or forecasting region by
calculating historical shares of national or regional aviation activity and by then
projecting these respective shares into future time frames. This method of projection
reflected demand based upon nationsl trends or trends occurring in groups of states.
Socioeconomic and per capita projections, on the other hand, are based upon local factors.
Market share projections were prepared for airline enplanements and based and
registered aircraft. These projections reflect historical trends and, therefore, may
include increasing, constant, or decreasing future market shares. An endorsement of a
constant market share forecast methodology is indirectly given by the Federal Aviation
Administration (FAA), since this projection technique is used in their Terminal Area
Forecasts (TAF).
Forecast of Airline n-u....!
Forecasts of airline demand were assembled for non-Port Authority airports that
currently receive scheduled air service by either Civil Aeronautics Board (CAB),
certificated or regional/commuter airlines. Demand elements for which forecasts were
assembled included:
Passenger Enplanements - Defined as an air traveler boarding a departing
aircraft.
Annual Operations - An operation
and landing are two operations.
year.
is either a take-off or a landing. A
Annual operations are measured by
take-off
calendar
In most cases, these forecasts already exist in airport master plans. In one instance
forecasts had to be updated to account for significant changes since the master plan was
developed.
The planning horizon for the forecast is the year 2005. Forecast periods
short-range (1985-1990), intermediate (1991-1995), and long-range (1996-2005).
activity forecasts were made for 1985, 1990, 1995 and 2005.
included
As such,
FORECAST OF AIRLINE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS
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Of the four non-Port Authority airports that receive scheduled air service, three
have current master plan forecasts of airline passenger enplanements and operations. Long I
Island MacArthur Airport, however, has recently experienced unprecedented growth, with the
entrance of Northeastern Airlines. This airline growth has quickly outdated the existing
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master plan forecasts. Therefore, an updated set of forecasts were generated as a part of
this system plan. Organization of this section is as follows:
Long Island MacArthur Enplanement Forecasts
Enplanement Forecasts for Other System Airports
Each of these forecasts are discussed in the following pages.
Long Island MacArthur Enplanement Forecasts
The master p Ian forecasts for Long Is land MacArthur Airport predict 284,000
enplanements for the year 1995. In 1983, almost 275,000 enplanements were recorded at
Long Island MacArthur Airport. This represents a 230 percent increase over the 1982 level
of 119,000 enplanements and very nearly reached the 1995 predicted levels. Such
unprecedented growth was the result of Northeastern Airlines low-fare, high-volume concept
of operation similar to that of People Express. Since Long Island MacArthur Airport is
Northeastern's base hub, it can be assumed that enplanements at the airport will continue
to increase in direct relationship to the success of Northeastern Airlines.
Conventional forecasting methods that use long strings of historical data to predict
future activity will not work in this instance due to the enormous increase in passenger
levels during 1983. This increase effectively eliminates the continuity of any trend that
may have been occurring up until 1982. This also creates very low correlations between
historical enplanements and independent variables such as population and PCPI. In fact,
the projections techniques that use regression and least squares analysis were omitted
from this analysis after trial runs produced R values no higher than 0.58.
Given the historical data, the only projection technique that could be used
successfully was the market share analysis. The following section discusses the market
share projection of enplanements.
Market Share Projection
Exhibit III.l presents a summary of Long Island MacArthur's market share of total
U.S. enplanements since 1975. As shown the market share fluctuated until bottoming out in
1981 at almost 0.03 percent. In 1983, the market share more than doubled that of 1982.
This high growth would be expected from a start-up airline such as Northeastern. The
question, at this point, is whether Long Island MacArthur's market share will continue to
increase or leve 1 off.
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Exhibit II!.l - LONG ISLAND MACARTIIllR MARKET SHARE PROJECTION OF TOTAL ENPLANEMENTS:
HISTORICAL AND FORECAST
Total 0.5. L.I. MacArthur Market
Year Enp1anements Enp1anements Share
1975 190,500,000 102,465 0.05379%
1976 201,400,000 107,299 0.05328%
1977 224,100,000 117,038 0.05223%
1978 255,000,000 124,779 0.04893%
1979 293,600,000 117,0961 0.03988%
1980 290,100,000 109 ,414 0.03772%
1981 277,800,000 82,058 0.029 54%
1982 286,200,000 119,206 0.04165%
1983 312,100,000 274,628 0.08799%
Forecast Constant Share 2
1985 363,900,000 320,200 0.08799%
1990 456,800,000 401,900 0.08799%
1995 521,500,000 458,900 0.08799%
2005 705,300,000 623,200 0.08799%
1
2
Estimated
Constant market share of 0.08799% of 0.5. Eastern Region, rounded to nearest
100.
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Discussions with airport officials indicate that the high initial growth has begun to
stabilize and that a conservative approach to the forecast would be that of constant
market share. This approach was taken and Exhibit III.l summarizes the results.
The constant market share projection was selected as the preferred forecast of
enplanements since it was the only projection made. The forecast indicates a growth from
the 1983 level of 274,628 to 320,200 in 1985, 401,900 in 1990, 458,900 in 1995, and
623,200 by the year 2005.
Enplanement Forecasts for Other System Airports
There are presently three other system airports, not including La Guardia and John F.
Kennedy, that conduct commercial aviation operations. They are:
Dutchess County
East Hampton
Westchester County
Master plan forecasts of enplanements for these airports have been completed and are
considered current by the airport sponsors. Exhibit 111.1 presents a summary of
enplanement forecasts at each of these airports. In some cases, values have either been
interpolated or extrapolated to match the forecast time frames of this study.
Exhibit III.2 .:. FORECASTS OF TOTAL ENPLANEMENTS FOR OTHER SYSTEM AIRPORTS
Airport/Activity 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Dutchess County 31,4001 34,8001 37,3001 39 ,8001 42,8002
Total Enplanements
East Hampton 9,9003 14,6004
Total Enplanements 5,400 7,100 12,400
Westchester County 320,9003 370,2004
Total Enplanements 269,500 299,500 344,500
1 Interpolated value since forecast years were 1987, 1992, and 2002.
2 Extrapolated value since last forecast year was 2002.
3 Interpolated value since no 1995 forecasts were prepared.
4 Extrapolated value since forecasts extend only to the year 2000.
Five other system airports, Stewart, Republic, Sullivan County and Orange County have
had scheduled service in the recent past and one, Montauk, still has seasonal scheduled
service. Forecasts of enplanements at these airports are beyond the scope of this study
and difficult for various reasons. The lack of commercial success of previous commuter
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operations, the freedom of entry and exit obtained under deregulation of the airline
industry and the proximity of these airports to other competing airports make it difficult
to determine the demand for commuter services with any degree of confidence.
Stewart Airport was forecast to accommodate 20,000 commuter passengers in 1985 in the
Tri-State Regional Airport System Plan (it was also forecast to receive airline service
which has not yet materialized). Enplanements have been minimal during the past several
years. Stewart should regain commuter service, especially as it has been recently
transferred to State ownership and its role in encouraging economic development in the
area is being strengthened.
Republic Airport was forecast to serve 60,000 passengers in 1985 in the Tri-State
Regional Airport System Plan. It is obvious that the forecast will not be met. Republic
is situated between John F. Kennedy International and Long Island MacArthur Airports.
Both offer airline service. Even if Republic Airport regains scheduled service, it will
not achieve the levels previously forecast for it in the Tri-State Plan.
Sullivan County International Airport received subsidized commuter service under the
Civil Aeronautics Board's (CAB) Essential Air Service program from 1980 to 1982. In 1982,
the CAB discontinued the service guarantee because traffic volume was below expectations,
the cost of subsidy per passenger was very high, and the availability of surface
transportation to other airports is good. Attempts to reinstate non-subsidized service
has not been successful. In light of these developments, any commuter service at Sullivan
County will provide only minimal and perhaps specialized service. A resumption of
scheduled service in the near future is not anticipated.
Orange County Airport has received spotty scheduled service, mainly in conjunction
with service attempts at Sullivan County. It is not eligible for subsidized service under
the Essential Air Service program. For this reason and because previous service attempts
have not been successful, the prospects for scheduled service at Orange County do not
appear favorable in the near-term future.
Montauk Airport is at the eastern end of Long Island in a relatively sparsely
populated area. Seasonal service is provided mainly to accomodate recreational travelers
to the area. The Inlmber of passengers carried is small and there does not appear to be
more potential for growth of scheduled service at this airport.
AIRLINE OPERATIONS
Similar to the airline enplanement forecasts, the forecasts of airline operations are
divided into two major subsections. The first deals exclusively with operational
forecasts at Long Island MacArthur. The second pertains to forecasts for the other three
non-Port Authority commercial airports in the Downstate region.
Long Island MacArthur Airline Operations
For this forecast, a relationship was identified between enplanements and operations.
In this case, historical enplanements per operations ratios were developed for the years
1975 through 1983. Exhibit III.3 presents these historical ratios. As shown, there has
been a fluctuation in the ratio throughout the historical period.
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It is worthy to note that in 1983 when Northeastern Airlines began to attract large
numbers of travelers, the enp1anements per operation ratio jumped from 6.7 to 10.6. This
increase is due in part to the large-capacity jet aircraft (Boeing 707's) used by
Northeastern. It is anticipated that the ratio will continue to increase to 14.0 by the
year 2005 as Northeastern broadens its markets out of Long Island MacArthur Airport.
When forecast enp1anements are divided by the predicted enp1anements per operation
ratio, a forecast of operations results. Exhibit III.3 presents the forecast of airline
operations for Long Island MacArthur Airport. As shown, operations are expected to grow
from 30,200 in 1985 to 44,500 by the year 2005.
Exhibit II1.3 - LONG ISLAND MACARTHUR AIRLINE OPERATIONS: HISTORICAL AND FORECAST
Year
L.1. MacArthur
Enp1anements
L.1. MacArthur
Airline
Operations
L.I. MacArthur
Enplanements
Per Operation
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
102,465
107,299
117,038
'124,779
117,096
109 ,413
82,058
119,206
274,628
11,593
11,934
11,198
12,296
17,658
16,206
13,245
17,780
25,942
8.8
9.0
10.5
10.1
6.6
6.8
6.2
6.7
10.6
Forecast
1985
320,200
30,200
10.6
1990
401,900
36,500
11.0
1995
458,900
38,200
12.0
2005
623,200
44,500
14.0
1
Forecast developed by dividing enplanements by enplanements per operation and
rounding to the nearest 100.
Airline Operations At Other Network Airports
Master plan forecasts of operations were assembled for the three non-Port Authority
commercial service airports. Exhibit III.4 lists the airline operations for each of the
airports. As shown, Westchester County is expected to have the highest operational level,
with Dutchess County ranking second, and East Hampton ranking third.
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Exhibit III.5 - AIRLINE OPERATIONS AT OTHER SYSTEM AIRPORTS
Airport/Activity 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Dutchess County
Airline Operations 12,6001 13,6001 14,6001 15,6001 16,6001
East Hampton 4,7003 5,8004
Airline Operations 3,800 4,100 5,200
Westchester County 25,3004
Airline Operations 19,000 21,000 21,0003 23,600
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1 Interpolated value since forecast years were 1987, 1992, and 2002.
2 Extrapolated value 8 ince last forecast year was 2002.
3 Interpolated value since no 1995 forecasts were prepared.
4 Extrapolated value S1nce forecasts extend only to year 2000.
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SUMMARY OF AIRLINE FORECASTS
Exhibit III.S presents a summary of total airline enp1anements and operations for
each of the four non-Port Authority commercial service airports in the Downstate study I
region. Aa shown, Long Island MacArthur is anticipated to become the busiest of the four.
Westchester County is expected to continue to grow in terms of airline activity, but at a
much slower pace. Airline activity should continue at both Dutchess County and East
Hampton, however, it will be overshadowed by the higher level of general aviation activity .
at these airports.
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Exhibit 111.5 - SUMMARY OF AIRLINE AcrIVITY AT NON-PORT AUTHORITY
CCtlHERCIAL SERVICE AIRPORTS
Airport/Activity 1985 1990 1995 2005
Dutchess County
Enplanements 31,400 34,800 37,300 42,800
Airline Operations 12,600 13,600 14,600 16,600
East Hampton
Enplanements 5,400 7,100 9,900 14,600
Airline Operations 3,800 4,100 4,700 5,800
L.1. MacArthur
Enplanements 320,200 401,900 458,900 623 , 200
Airline Operations 30,200 36,500 38,200 44,500
Westchester County
Enplanements 269,500 299,500 320,900 370,200
Airline Operations 19,000 21,000 21 ,000 25,300
Forecast of Military Activity
Military actlvlty in the study region consists mostly of Air National Guard, reserve
and ROTC training, along with helicopter transport, and other training activity. The
level of military operations is a function of Department of Defense policy and
Congressional funding. Therefore, it is not possible to accurately predict the level of
military activity in the Downstate region. Rather, all predictions were based upon
historical data which mayor may not be relevant in times of national crisis.
The primary descriptor of military activity is the level of operations conducted at
an airport. Exhibit III.6 presents the level of military operations recorded at airports
in the Downstate region. As shown, this activity varies by airport with Stewart having
the largest share. In some cases, historical trends are evident, in other cases, they are
not.
One method of forecasting military operations that could be applied to all of the
airports in a consistent manner was to take an arithmetic average of each airport's
historical military operations and project that average into the future. Exhibit 111.6
presents the forecast of military operations at airports in the Downstate region.
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Exhibit III.6 - MILITARY OPERATIONS. BY AIRPORT: HISTORICAL AND FORECAST
Dutchess L.I. Orange Sky Suffolk Westchester
Year County MacArthur County Repub lic Acres Stewart County County
1974 8,285 1,484 5,004
1975 11 ,194 1,430 4,241
1976 9,944 1,373 800 4,646
1977 2,313 9,577 676 800 4,210
1978 4,630 10,124 536 800 365 3,845
1979 5,393 11,035 674 800 365 4,516
1980 3,612 9,947 600 795 800 3,470
1981 5,000 10,874 600 897 800 29,700 15,700 3,745
1982 3,891 10,646 620 1,497 800 31,600 11,559 3,869
Forecast
1985 4,100 10,200 600 1,000 800 34,6001 13,6002 3003
1990 4,100 10,200 600 1,000 800 34,6001 13,6002 3003
1995 4,100 10,200 600 1,000 800 34,6001 13,6002 3003
2005 4,100 10,200 600 1,000 800 34,6001 13,6002 3003
1
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Reflects the addition of Westchester County airport's military operations.
Represents average of 1981-1982. Previous data is not reflective of existing
conditions.
3
Reflects the relocation of Westchester County's military wing to Stewart Field
in Newburgh.
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Porecast of Gomeral Aviation II nd
General aviation is defined as all civil flying except that classified as airline.
This includes flying for pleasure, business, or training, in aircraft ranging from single-
engine, fixed wing to balloons. In the Downstate region a large portion of demand for
airports, airport facilities, and airport services stems from general aviation.
The Downstate study area was subdivided into two forecasting regions: the Hudson
Valley and Long Island forecasting regions. This categorization was dictated by both
statistical and geographic factors. The size and location of these forecasting regions
are discussed in later sections of this chapter.
To accurately measure the region's future facility needs, act1v1ty in this very
important part of aviation must be forecast. Facilitation of the forecast is made through
identification of several elements of general aviation demand which, when forecast, serve
as a gauge by which future activity can be measured. These elements include:
Registered Aircraft
Based Aircraft
Aircraft Operations
Aircraft Fleet Mix
Registered aircraft and aircraft fleet mix were forecast on a multi-county basis, whereas,
based aircraft and aircraft operations are forecast on an airport-by-airport basis. Each
is discussed in the following sections.
REGISTERED AIRCRAFT
A registered aircraft is an aircraft, either fixed or rotary wing, operated in non-
certificated service with a current registration, and flown at least one hour in the
previous year. Much of the historical information used to develop the registered aircraft
forecast is based on data compiled by the FAA, and published in the Census of Civil
Aircraft. This document is published on a fiscal year basis and contains registered
aircraft counts for every county in the nation. Much of the socioeconomic data comes from
the NYS Department of Commerce and the U.s. Bureau of the Census. Forecast methodologies,
described in a previous section, were employed to obtain reasonable forecasts of
registered aircraft. The following sections summarize these forecasts for the two
forecasting regions of the Downstate.
Hudson Valley Region
The Hudson Valley forecast region is composed of seven counties: Dutchess, Orange.
Putnam, Rockland, Sullivan, Ulster, and Westchester. Exhibit III.7 presents the
historical levels of registered aircraft in the Hudson Valley forecasting region, by
county. AB shown, many of the counties have erratic growth patterns. The largest yearly
change came between 1976 and 1977 when the region lost 138 registered aircraft. From that
time through 1982, registered aircraft levels had not reached the 1976 number. In fact,
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1974 recorded the highest level of registered aircraft for the historical period. Given
the erratic highs and lows of the historical data string, any projection techniques that
rely upon historical correlation of dependent and independent variables are likely to have
low correlation coefficients.
Exhibit III. 7 - HISTORICAL REGISTERED AIRCRAFT1: HUDSON VALLEY REGION
Dutchess Orange Putnam Rockland Sullivan Ulster Westchester
Year County County County County County County County Total
1970 236 166 29 140 100 101 379 1,151
1971 235 190 31 120 106 74 342 1,098
1972 314 251 36 146 139 137 404 1,427
1973 301 260 28 132 110 111 387 1,329
1974 306 242 23 138 110 133 398 1,350
1975 328 213 27 138 96 136 381 1,319
1976 310 217 24 125 95 134 396 1,301
1977 247 167 59 109 89 126 366 1,163
1978 270 181 64 122 94 119 367 1,217
1979 276 184 63 151 103 123 384 1,284
1980 269 186 60 146 99 124 393 1,277
1981 270 189 60 146 96 117 399 1,277
1982 265 170 67 145 94 113 411 1,265
1
Federal Aviation Administration Census of U.S. Civil Aircraft (Washington,
D.C.: U.S. Department of Transportation, years 1970-1982).
To arrive at an acceptable forecast, five projections were made using socioeconomic
regression, per capita trend, and share of the market methodologies. Once tabulated, any
unreasonable projections were eliminated from further consideration. The prediction
appearing valid was selected as the preferred. If more than one of the remaining
projections appeared valid, the preferred forecast was developed by averaging the high and
low projections for each forecast year. The following sections briefly discuss each
projection.
Market Share Projections
Projections were made based upon the Hudson Valley forecast region's share of the
FAA's U.s. Eastern Region1. Historical percentage shares are calculated by dividing the
total registered aircraft in tbe Hudson Region by the total number of registered aircraft
in the FAA's Eastern Region.
1
FAA U.s., Eastern Region includes: District of Columbia, Delaware, Maryland,
New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and West Virginia
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Exhibit III.8 presents the historical market shares. From this historical trend, two
future scenarios were developed: a constant market share projection and an average market
share projection. The first is a 1982 constant market share that is applied to the 1985,
1990, 1995, and year 2005 forecasts of registered aircraft in the FAA's Eastern Region.
The average market share projection, on the other hand, is based on the recent historical
trend of the region's market share. This trend has shown relatively little absolute
growth since 1978. The market share has continued to grow slightly due to decreases in
the U.S. Eastern Region. The average share, since 1978 then, is somewhat lower than the
constant market share.
Exhibit III.8 - HUDSON VALLEY REGION MARKET SHARE PROJECTIONS OF REGISTERED AIRCRAFT
Registered GA. Hudson Valley Hudson Valley
Aircraft, U.S. Region Reg ion
Eastern Registered Market Registered Market
Year Region Aircraft Share Aircraft Share
1973 18,600 1,329 7.145%
1974 19,800 1,350 6.818%
1975 21,200 1,319 6.222%
1976 21,200 1,301 6.137%
1977 21,700 1,163 5.359%
1978 21,700 1,217 5.608%
1979 23,700 1,284 5.418%
1980 22,900 1,277 5.576%
1981 23 ,000 1,277 5.552%
1982 21,200 1,265 5.967%
Forecast Constant Share 1 Average Share2
1985 22,200 1,325 5.967% 1,249 5.624%
1990 26,800 1,599 5.967% 1,507 5.624%
1995 31,700 1,892 5.967% 1,783 5.624%
2005 41,200 2,458 5.967% 2,317 5.624%
1
1982 Constant market share of U.S. Eastern Region used through 2005.
2
Average of 1978-1982 market shares, applied to U.S. Eastern Region forecast.
1II-14
I
Exhibit 111.8 presents both the constant and average market share projection of
registered aircraft for the Hudson Valley forecasting region. The constant market share I
projection of 5.967% resulted in a year 2005 total of 2,458 registered aircraft. The
average market share projection of 5.624% yielded a year 2005 estimate of 2,317 registered
aircraft.
I
PCPI Regression Projection
One of the socioeconomic regression projections was based upon the PCPI economic I
indicator. The relationship between economic activity and the need for aviation service
has long been accepted by the FAA as conclusive. PCPI was selected as a statistical
barometer of economic activity. I
To project registered aircraft through the planning period, a regression between
historical PCPI and numbers of registered aircraft was made. For this regression, PCPI I
for the Hudson Valley forecasting region was calculated by dividing total personal income
in the region by the corresponding population of the area. Forecast PCPI for the periods
1985, 1990, 1995, and 2005 were then applied to the regression equation to obtain
projected registered aircraft for the forecast period. It should be noted that the 1972.
number of registered aircraft was smoothed in the analysis, after discussions with FAA
revealed problems with the registered aircraft counts in that year.
Exhibit lII.9 presents a tabular summary of the regression analysis. The regression I
equation states: Y = 0.1044X + 611 where X equals PCPI and Y equals registered aircraft.
The PCPI regression projects a total of 1,500 registered aircraft by the year 2005. The
correlation of 0.26 indicates that the growth of per capita personal income is not 11
correlated to the growth in registered aircraft. The equation, therefore, should not be
used as a predicitve model of registered aircraft growth.
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Exhibit III.9 - HUDSON VALLEY REGION PCPI REGRESSION PROJECTION OF REGISTERED AIRCRAFr
Hudson Region
Hudson Region Registered
Year PCPI Aircraft
1970 5,816 1,151
1971 5,915 1,098
1972 6,109 1,2141
1973 6,112 1,329
1974 6,025 1,350
1975 5,907 1,319
1976 5,949 1,301
1977 6,143 1,163
1978 6,196 1,217
1979 6,324 1,284
1980 6,282 1,277
1981 6,344 1,277
1982 6,427 1,265
Forecast PCPI Regression 2
1985 6;750 1,316
1990 7,154 1,358
1995 7,591 1,404
2005 8,516 1,500
1
2
Smoothed via C&A analysis
Regression Equation: Y = 0.1044X + 611
Where X = PCPI and Y = registered aircraft
Correlation (R) = 0.26
1II-16
Population Regression Projection
Another socioeconomic regression projection was made using population as the
socioeconomic statistic. Similar to the PCPI regression, population was aggregated for
the Hudson Valley forecast region and used as the independent variable in the regression
with registered aircraft. Forecast population for 1985, 1990, 1995, and year 2005 were
then applied to the regression to obtain projected registered aircraft for the
corresponding years.
Exhibit UI.IO presents a summary of the population regression analysis. The growth
of population has not paralleled that of registered aircraft in the forecast region. This
is indicated by the low correlation coefficient of 0.38. The regression equation states: Y
= 0.0007X - 50, where X equals population and Y equals registered aircraft. The low
correlation eliminates this projection from serious consideration as the forecast model.
Per Capita Trend Projection
This projection is based upon an analysis of the historical ratio of registered
aircraft to population in the Hudson Valley forecast region. Per capita ratios were
developed by dividing registered aircraft for the region by the total population of the
corresponding area. These aircraft per capita ratios were then trended and projected into
the future via least squares analysis. Future aircraft per capita ratios were then
applied to the population forecasts resulting in registered aircraft projections.
Exhibit tU.IO also presents the per capita trend projection of registered aircraft.
The results indicate a very slow growth in registered aircraft from 1,318 in 1985 to 1,512
by the year 2005. The correlation coefficient of 0.0 indicates that the advance of time
does not explain any of the growth activity in enplanements per capita. The absence of
correlation eliminates this projection from consideration as a forecast model.
UI-17
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Exhibit IlLI0 - HUDSON VALLEY REGION POPUlATION REGRESSION AND PER CAPITA TREND
PROJECTIONS OF REGISTERED AIRCRAFI
Hudson Hudson
Hudson Region Registered Region
Region Registered Air Craft Registered
Year Population Aircraft Per Capita Aircraft
1970 1,818,800 1,151 0.0006328
1971 1,843,000 1,098 0.00059 58
1972 1,851,300 1,2141 0.0006558
1973 1,871,800 1,329 0.0007100
1974 1,871,900 1,350 0.0007212
1975 1,890,400 1,319 0.0006977
1976 1,895,600 1,301 0.0006863
1977 1,911 ,100 1,163 0.0006086
1978 1,921,800 1,217 0.0006333
1979 1,932,400 1,284 0.0006645
1980 1,931,300 1,277 0.0006612
1981 1,944,600 1,277 0.000656 7
1982 1,958,100 1,265 0.0006460
Forecast Population Regression2 Per Capita Trend3
1985 1,998,200 1,349 0.0006596 1,318
1990 2,078,800 1,405 0.0006597 1,371
1995 2,163,000 1,464 0.0006598 1,427
2005 2,291,200 1,554 0.0006600 1,512
1
Smoothed via C&A analysis
2
Regression Equation: Y = 0.0007X - 50
Where X = population and Y = registered aircraft
Correlation (R) = 0.38
3
Trend Equation:
Y - 2.1 x 10-ax + 0.0006179
Where X - year and Y = registered aircraft per capita
Correlation (R) = 0.00
IlI-18
Preferred Forecast
Exhibit III.ll presents a listing of the various projections of registesred aircraft
for the Hudson Valley forecasting region. The most optimistic projection was the conatant
market share. Conversely, the PCPI regression was the most pessimistic. The remaining
projections fell between these upper and lower ranges.
From a statistical standpoint, correlation cofficients for the PCPI regression,
population regression, and per capita trend projections were all too low to be considered
significant. Therefore, these projections were eliminated from further consideration.
This left both the average and constant market share projections of registered aircraft
for consideration.
Of the two market share projections, the average market share was selected as
preferred. There were a number of reasons for this selection. First, this projection was
more conservative that the constant market share projection. Second, it was more
indicative of historical trends in the region. As mentioned earlier, the 1982 market
share is higher than the previous five years even though the number of registesred
aircraft has been decreasing since 1979. The high market share in 1982 is due not to the
growth in Hudson Valley region registered aircraft, but rather to the significant decrease
in the FAA's Eastern Region registered aircraft. The average market share projection,
because it represents s lower and more reasonable outlook on regional growth trends, was
chosen as marginally better than the constant market share projection.
The preferred forecast predicts 1,249 registered aircraft for 1985, 1,507 for 1990,
1,783 for 1995, and 2,317 for the year 2005. The preferred forecast indicates a 3.1
percent annual growth rate, which is the same as that for the FAA's U.S. Eastern Region.
Exhibit III.ll - HUDSON VAILEY REGION PREFERRED FORECAST
Projections/Forecast
Correlation
Coefficient
1985
1990
1995
2005
Constant Market Share 1,325 1,599 1,892 2,458
Average Market Share 1,249 1,507 1,783 2,317
PCPI Regres s ion 1,316 1,358 1,404 1,500 0.26
Population Regression 1,349 1,405 1,464 1,554 0.38
Per Capita Trend 1,318 1,371 1,427 1,512 0.00
Preferred Forecast1 1,249 1,507 1,783 2,317
1
Average market share selected as preferred
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Long Island Region
The Long Island forecasting region is composed of seven cOlIDties: Bronx, Kings,
Nassau, New York, Queens, Richmond, and Suffolk. Exhibit 111.12 presents historical
levels of registered aircraft in each of these counties. As shown, several of the
cOlIDties have erratic growth patterns. The most notable is that of Suffolk County. For
example, in 1973, 768 registered aircraft were recorded. Then, in 1974, over 1,100
registered aircraft were recorded. This high trend continued until 1977 when registered
aircraft declined by almost 500.
Exhibit IIL12 - HISTORICAL REGISTERED AIRCRAFTl: LONG ISlAND FORECAST REGION
Year Bronx Kings Nassau New York Queens Richmond
1970 2 5 391 10 85 0
1971 6 2 363 28 100 2
1972 8 14 430 41 118 8
1973 6 3 416 28 97 4
1974 6 3 63 39 84 4
1975 8 5 68 41 86 4
1976 6 10 84 72 85 3
1977 34 85 506 412 171 41
1978 37 94 567 574 193 42
1979 38 94 583 657 207 42
1980 31 106 587 672 206 44
1981 28 98 539 749 200 45
1982 27 85 523 709 195 37
Long Is land
Year Suffolk Region Total
1970 625 1,118
1971 654 1,115
1972 855 1,474
1973 768 1,322
1974 1,104 1,303
1975 1,138 1,350
1976 1,149 1,409
1977 682 1,931
1978 714 2,221
1979 754 2,375
1980 721 2,367
1981 710 2,369
1982 710 2,286
1
Federal Aviation Administration, Censua of u.s. Civil Aircraft (Washington,
D.C.: U.S. Department of Transportation, Years 1970-1982).
III-20
If Nassau County registered aircraft are examined for the same period, it becomes
apparent that registered aircraft were shifted from one county and back again, three years
later. By using total registered aircraft in the Long Island forecasting region, whicb is
the sum of registered aircraft in the counties listed, a more even growth is identified.
This data string then, was used for forecasting purposes and appears reasonable from a
geographic standpoint as well as a statistical viewpoint.
To arrive at an acceptable forecast, five projections were made using socioeconomic
regression, per capita trend, and share of the market metbodologies. Once tabulated, any
unreasonable projections were eliminated from consideration. The following sections
briefly discuss each projections.
Market Share Projections
Projections were made based upon tbe Long Island forecast region's share of tbe FAA's
U.s. Eastern Region. Historical percentage sbares are calculated by dividing tbe total
registered aircraft in tbe Long Island region by the total number of registered aircraft
in the FAA's Eastern Region. Exhibit III.13 presents tbe historical market shares. From
this historical trend, two future scenarios were developed using a static and a dynamic
trend. The static trend represents a 1982 constant market share that is applied to the
1985, 1990, 1995, and year 2005 forecasts of registered aircraft in the FAA's Eastern
Region. The dynamic market share projection, on the other hand, is based on the
historical trend of the region's market sbare, and therefore, projects an increasing share
of the market. Exbibit 111.13 presents both tbe static and dynamic projections of
registered aircraft for the Long Island forecast region. Tbe constant market sbare
projection of 10.783 percent resulted in a year 2005 total of 4,443 registered aircraft.
The inceasing market sbare projection of 13.8 percent in the year 2005 resulted in a total
of 5,686 registered aircraft.
III-2l
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Exhibit 11!.13 - LONG ISUIID FORECAST REGION MAllKET SHARE PROJECTIONS: REGISTERED AIRCRAFT
U.S. Eastern Long Island Long Is land
Region Region Region
Registered Registered Market Registered Market
Year Aircraft 1 Aircraft Share Aircraft Share
1973 18,600 1,322 7.108%
1974 19,800 1,303 5.581%
1975 21,200 1,350 6.368%
1976 21,200 1,409 6.646%
1977 21,700 1,931 8.900%
1978 21,700 2,221 10.235%
1979 23,700 2,375 10.021%
1980 22,900 2,367 10.336%
1981 23 ,000 2,369 10.300%
1982 21,200 2,286 .10.783%
Constant Increas ing
Forecast Share2 Share3
1985 22,200 2,394 10.783% 2442 11.0%
1990 26,800 2,890 10.783% 3136 11. 7%
1995 31,700 3,418 10.783% 3931 12.4%
2005 41,200 4,443 10.783% 5686 13.8%
1
Federal Aviation Administration, FAA Aviation Forecasts: Fiscal Years 1983-
1994 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Transportation, February, 1983),
Table 6, with extrapolation of year 1995 and 2005 values by Cress & Associates.
2
Market share constant at 10.783% of U.S. Eastern Region
3
Market share increasing to 13.8% of U.S. Eastern Region by year 2005.
PCPI Regression Projection
To project registered aircraft through the planning period, a regression between
historical PCPI and numbers of registered aircraft was made. For this regression, PCPI
for the Long Island forecasting region was calculated by dividing total personal income in
the region by the corresponding population of the area. Forecast PCPI for the periods
1985, 1990, 1995, and 2005 were then applied to the regression equation to obtain
projected registered aircraft for the forecast period.
Exhibit 111.14 presents a tabular summary of the regression analysis. The regression
yielded a projection of 8,268 registered aircraft by the year 2005. This estimate of
growth implies that registered aircraft in the Long Island region would grow from 10
percent of the total FAA Eastern Region to over 20 percent by the end of the planning
period - a very optimistic projection. The regression equation states: Y = 2.5491X -
111-22
12462, where X equals PCPI and Y equals registered aricraft. The correlation coefficient
of 0.92 indicates a strong historical relationship between PCPI and registered aircraft.
It should be noted that the 1972 number of registered aircraft was smoothed in the
analysis, after discussions with FAA revealed problems with the registered aircraft counts
in the t year.
Exhibit III.14 - LONG ISLAND FORECAST REGION PCPI RBlRESSION PROJECTIONS:
REGISTERED AIRCRAFT
Year
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
Forecast
1985
1990
1995
2005
Long Is land
Region
PCPI
Long Is land
Region
Registered
Aircraft
$ 5,283
5,312
5,482
5,530
5,508
5,391
5,420
5,600
5,667
5,730
5,737
5,807
5,890
1,118
1,155
1,2391
1,322
1,303
1,350
1,409
1,931
2,221
2,375
2,367
2,369
2,286
PCPI Regression2
$ 6,221
3,396
6,653
4,498
7,156
5,780
8,132
8,268
1
2
Smoothed via C&A Analysis
Regression equation: Y ~ 2.5491X - 12462
Where X = PCPI and Y ~ Registered Aircraft
Coefficient of Correlation (R) = 0.92
III-23
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Population Regression Projection
Another socioeconomic regression projection was made using population as the
socioeconomic statistic. Similar to the PCPI regression, population was aggregated for
the Long Island forecast region and used as the independent variable in the regression
with registered aircraft. Forecast population for 1985, 1990, 1995, and year 2005 were
then applied to the regression equation to obtain projected registered aircraft for the
corresponding years.
Since population has been decreasing and registered aircraft have been increasing, it
was not surprising to find a negative correlation of -0.95, indicating an inverse
relationship between variables. Exhibit III.15 presents a summary of the analysis. The
regression equation states: Y = -o.0016X + 18058 where X equals population and Y equals
registered aircraft. Using this equation, if population were zero, there would be 18,058
registered aircraft in the area. This extreme case demonstrates why an inverse
relationship between population and registered aircraft cannot stand over time. It also
indicates that ultimately, there are other factors at work that cause registered aircraft
to increase. The population regression projection indicates a growth of only 10
registered aircraft in the fifteen year period between 1990 and 2005. All of these
factors detract from the confidence in the regression equation as a predictive model for
registered aircraft.
Per Capita Trend Projection
This projection is based upon an analysis of the historical ratio of registered
aircraft to population in the Long Island forecast region. Per capita ratios were
developed by dividing registered aircraft for the region by the total population of the
corresponding area. These aircraft per capita ratios were then trended and projected into
the future via least squares analysis. Future aircraft per capita ratios were then
applied to the population forecasts resulting in registered aircraft projections.
Exhibit 111.15 also presents the per capita trend projections of registered aircraft.
The results indicate a steady growth in registered aircraft from 2,896 in 1985 to 5,569 by
the year 2005 - a 3.3 percent annual growth. The correlation coefficient of 0.94
indicates that the trend equation offers a good explanation of historical growth in
registered aircraft per capita.
1II-24
Exhibit !IL15 - LONG ISLAND FORECAST REGION POPUlATION REGRESSION AND PER CAPITA TREND
PROJECTIONS: REGISTERED AIRCRAFr
Long Is land Long Is land
Long Is land Region Aircraft Region
Region Registered Per Registered
Year Population Aircraft Capita Aircraft
1970 10,421,400 1,118 0.0001073
1971 10,477,200 1,155 0.0001102
1972 10,417,600 1,2391 0.0001189
1973 10,266,900 1,322 0.0001288
1974 10,168,200 1,303 0.0001281
1975 10,086,300 1,350 0.0001338
1976 10,028,000 1,409 0.0001405
1977 9,904,000 1,931 0.0001950
1978 9,780,300 1,221 0.0002271
1979 9,703,100 2,375 0.0002448
1980 9,677 ,400 2,367 0.0002446
1981 9,676,200 2,369 0.0002450
1982 9,662,800 2,286 0.0002366
Population Per Capita
Forecast Regression2 Trend3
1985 9,641,100 2,632 0.0003004 2,896
1990 9,581,000 2,728 0.0003707 3,552
1995 9,576,000 2,736 0.0004410 4,223
2005 9,574,900 2,738 0.0005816 5,569
1
Smoothed via C&A analysis
2
Regression Equation: Y = - 0.0016X + 18058
Where X = Population and Y = Registered Aircraft
Correlation Coefficient (R) = -0.95
3
Trend Equation: Y = 0.0000140612X - 0.0276111
Where X = Year and Y = Registered Aircraft Per Capita
Correlation Coefficient (R) = 0.94
III-25
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Preferred Forecast
Exhibit III.16 presents a listing of the various projections of registered aircraft
for the Long Island forecast region. The constant and increasing market share projections
present low and high ranges of possible growth. The PCPI regression, although it had a
high correlation, was judged too optimistic in that it projects registered aircraft to
grow from 10 percent to 20 percent of the FAA's U.S. Eastern Region. By comparison, the
most optimistic market share projection was 13.8 percent of the FAA's Eastern Region.
The population regression projection was excluded from further consideration because
it had a negative correlation and lacked growth over the last fifteen years of the
forecast period. The per capita trend projection looked reasonable, except for the 1985
forecast. In this case, the 1985 projection of 2,896 registered aircraft represents a 27
percent growth over 1982 levels. This growth, compared to the 1978-1982 growth of 3
percent doesn't look reasonable. Of the five initial projections, three were eliminated
from further consideration, leaving the constant and increasing market share projections.
Of the two eligible projections, the constant market share was selected as preferred.
The primary reason for this selection, again, was that it is the more conservative of the
two projections. The increasing market share trend is based upon the enormous growth that
occurred in the mid 1970's. Since 1979, this trend has subsided and no growth has
occurred. The constant market share projection implies that the Long Island region will
experience the same growth rate as that for the U.S. Eastern Region - 3.1 percent per
year. This may, in fact, be optimistic, in light of the past 5 years growth in registered
aircraft for the region. The preferred forecast predicts 2,394 registered aircraft for
1985, 2,890 for 1990, 3,418 for 1995, and 4,443 by the year 2005.
Exhibit III.16 - PREFERRED FORECAST OF REGISTERED AIRCRAFT: LONG ISLAND FORECAST REGION
Projections/Forecast 1985 1990 1995 2005
Constant Market Share 2,394 2,890 3,418 4,443
Increasing Market Share 2,442 3,136 3,931 5,686
PCPI Regression 3,396 4,498 5,780 8,268
Population Regression 2,632 2,728 2,736 2,738
Per Capita Trend 2,896 3,552 4,223 5,569
Preferred Forecast1 2,394 2,890 3,418 4,443
Correlation
Coefficient
0.92
-D.95
0.94
1
The constant market share projection was selected as the Preferred Forecast.
III-26
FORECAST OF BASED AIRCRAFT
A based aircraft is an aircraft that utilizes one primary airport, usually one
convenient to the owner, for hangaring, parking, and as a base of operations. The based
aircraft forecast is a function of the registered aircraft forecast, in that registered
aircraft are allocated to airports in the Downstate region for each of the forecast
periods.
Since this study concerns itself with public-use facilities only, aircraft will not
be allocated to non-network airports. Also, there are a number of corporations, based in
New York City, that own registered aircraft based in other parts of the country.
Desparities, therefore, will exist between the number of registered aircraft forecast and
the number of based aircraft forecast.
Using the registered aircraft forecasts, based aircraft forecasts were calculated.
Existing based aircraft at each airport in the study area were determined using
information contained on FAA Airport Master Records, on-site inspections, and interviews
with airport officials and fixed base operators. Using a knowledge of the present number
of aircraft based at network airports in the Downstate region, a market share percentage
of registered aircraft was computed by dividing the based aircraft by the registered
aircraft totals in the airports' respective forecast region. These market shares are
shown in Exhibit 111.17.
The market shares were then applied to the registered aircraft forecast for each
forecasting region to produce a based aircraft forecast. Exhibit 1Ir.17 presents the
results of the forecast.
III-27
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I Exhibit 111.17 - BASED AIRCRAFT:
HISTORICAL AND FORECAST
I 1982 Based Aircraft
Based Market
I County/Airport Aircraft Share 19851 1990 1995 2005
I IIudson Valley Forecast Region2
Dutcbess County
Dutchess County 144 11.38% 154 171 203 264
I Sky Acres 62 4.90% 67 74 87 114
Sky Park 28 2.21% 30 33 39 51
Stormvi11e 101 7.98% 108 120 142 185
I Orange County
Orange County 108 8.54% 116 129 152 198
I Randall 38 3.00% 41 45 53 70
Stewart 37 2.92% 40 44 52 68
Warwick 22 1. 74% 23 26 31 40
I Puen- County
Mahopac 23 1.82% 24 27 32 42
I
Ilockland County
I Ramapo Valley 154 12.17% 165 183 217 282
Sullivan County
I Monticello 19 1. 50% 20 23 27 35
Sullivan County
International 28 2.21% 30 33 39 51
I Wurtsboro-
Sullivan County 81 6.40% 87 96 114 148
I Ulster County
Kingston-Ulster 31 2.45% 33 37 44 57
LJH 17 1.34% 18 20 24 31
I Marlboro 4 0.32% 4 5 6 7
Sages 6 0.47% 6 7 8 11
Stanton 7 0.55% 7 8 10 13
I Wallkill 48 3.79% 51 57 68 88
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I 111-28
Exhibit III.!7 - BASED AIRCRAFr: HISTORICAL AND FORECAST (Con't.)
1982
Based Aircraft
County/Airport
Based
Aircraft
Westchester County
Westchester County
431
Market
Share
1990
2005
19851
34.07%
462
513
Loog IslSDd Forecast Region3
Queens County
flushing
John F. Kennedy
La Guard ia
30
3
8
Suffolk County
Bayport
Brookhaven
Coram
East Hampton
Elizabeth
L. 1. MacArthur
Mattituck
Montauk
Republic
Spadaro
Suffo lk County
56
158
4
51
2
370
23
15
522
17
74
1
1.31%
0.13%
0.35%
31
3
8
38
4
10
1995
607
45
4
12
84
236
6
76
3
553
34
23
780
25
111
789
58
6
16
109
307
8
99
4
719
45
29
1,014
33
144
1985 forecast for the Hudson Valley region was interpolated from 1982 and 1990
data points to avoid showing negative growth.
2
Forecast based aircraft are
region registered aircraft:
2005=2,317.
3
Forecast based aircraft are
region registered aircraft:
2005--4,443.
2.45%
6.91%
0.17%
2.23%
0.09%
16.19%
1.01%
0.66%
22.83%
0.74%
3.24%
59
165
4
53
2
388
24
16
547
18
78
71
200
5
64
3
468
29
19
660
21
94
derived from 1982 market shares of Hudson Valley
1982=1,265; 1985=1,249; 1990=1,507; 1995=1,783;
derived from 1982 market shares of Long Island
1982=2,286; 1985=2,394; 1990=2,890; 1995=3,418;
III-29
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FORECAST OF OPERATIONS
The next step in the forecast process utilized the previously calculated based
aircraft forecast to estimate general aviation operations at each network airport in the
Downstate region. An operation is defined as a takeoff or a landing. Three distict
categories of operations were examined and forecast: annual operations, peak hour
operations, and instrument operations. Each is discussed in the following sections.
Annual Operations
Forecasts of annual operations were developed by first calculating historical
operations per based aircraft ratios. The general procedure involved collecting base year
general aviation operations data for each airport and dividing it by the number of
aircraft based there in the same year. These ratios are presented in Exhibit 111.18.
The operations per based aircraft ratios were then multiplied by the forecast level
of based aircraft at each network airport to produce a general aviation operations total
for each forecast period. Exhibit III.18 also presents the forecast of general aviation
operations for each network airport in the Downstate region.
1II-30
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Exhibit III.18 - GENERAL AVIATION OPERATIONS FORECAST
Forecast Operations I
1982 Operations
County/Airport Per Based Aircraft 1985 1990 1995 2005 I
IIud80n Valley Forecast Region I
Dutchess County
Dutchess County 1180 181 ,720 201,780 239 , 540 311,520 I
Sky Acres 560 37,520 41,440 48,720 63,840
Sky Park 340 10,200 11,220 13 , 260 17 ,340
Stormvi11e 400 43 ,200 48,000 56,800 74,000 I
Orange County
Orange County 760 88,160 98,040 115,520 150,480 I
Randall 590 24,190 26,550 31,270 41,300
Stewart 2220 88,800 97,680 115,440 150,960
Warwick 520 11,960 13,520 16,120 20,800 I
Putnaa County
Mahopac 480 11,520 12,960 15,360 20,160 I
lloclt1and County
Ramapo Valley 930 153,450 170,190 201,810 262,260 I
Sullivan County I
Montice 110 60 1,200 1,380 1,620 2,100
Sullivan County
lot' 1. 640 19 ,200 21,120 24,960 32,640 I
Wurtsboro-
Sullivan Co. 880 76,560 84,480 100,320 130,240
Ulster County I
Kingston-Ulster 450 14,850 16,650 19,800 25,650
L.J.H. 230 4,140 4,600 5,520 7,130 I
Marlboro 50 200 250 300 350
Sages NA
Stanton 340 2,380 2,720 3,400 4,420 I
Wallkill 50 2,550 2,850 3,400 4,400
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111-32
Peak Hour Operations
Peak hour operations are those that take place during the busiest hour of the average
day in the busiest month of the year. They are a critical measure of the airport's
activity and as such, are used to identify the demand portion of airfield capacity. Peak
hour forecasts in this section include both general avation and military activity.
Peak hour activity is estimated for each network airport utilizing the following
general planning standards:l
Peak month operations are 10 percent of annual operations.
Average day operations are peak month operations divided by 30.
Peak hour operations are roughly 15 percent of the average day.
There are a minimum of two peak hour operations at each airport.
Results of the forecast are presented in Exhibit 111.19.
1
Consultant estimate; see FAA Advisory Circular 150/530o-4B, page 45.
1II-33
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Exhibit III.19 - GENERAL AVIATION AND MILITARY PEAK HOUR OPERATIONS FORECAST
I Peak Hour Operations
County/Airport 1985 1990 1995 2005
I
Hudson Valley Forecast Region
I Datchess County
Dutchess County 93 103 122 158
Sky Acres 19 21 25 32
I Sky Park 5 6 7 9
Stormvi11e 22 24 28 37
I Orsuge County
Or ange County 44 49 58 76
Randa 11 12 13 16 21
I Stewart 59 63 72 90
Warwick 6 7 8 10
I l'utnl. County
Mahopac 6 6 8 10
I Ilocltland County
Ramapo 77 85 101 131
I Sullivan County
I Mont ice 110 2 2 2 2
Sullivan County Int'l. 10 11 12 16
Wurtsboro-Su11ivan County 38 42 50 65
I Ulster County
Kingston-Ulster 7 8 10 13
I L.J.H. 2 2 3 4
Marlboro 2 2 2 2
Sages
Stanton 2 2 2 2
I Wa11ki11 2 2 2 2
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I III-34
Exhibit III.19 - GENERAL AVIATION AND MILITARY PEAK HOUR OPERATIONS FORECAST
Peak Hour Operations
County/Airport 1985 1990 1995 2005
Westcbester County
Westchester County 86 95 112 146
Long Island Forecast Region
Queens County
Flushing 16 19 23 29
John F. Kennedy 14 19 19 29
La Guardia 13 16 19 25
Suffolk County
Bayport 6 7 8 10
Brookhaven 68 83 98 127
Coram 2 2 2 2
East Hampton 25 30 35 46
Elizabeth 7 11 11 15
L.1. MacArthur 108 129 152 196
Mattituck 9 10 12 16
Montauk 5 6 7 9
Repub lie 104 126 149 193
Spadaro 2 2 2 2
Suffolk County 66 78 91 116
Instrument Approaches
In order to judge the need for future naviagation aids, the number of annual
instrument approaches was estimated for all network airports in the study area.
Instrument approaches are defined as a series of predetermined maneuvers for the orderly
transfer of an aircraft under instrument flight conditions from the beginni':j of the
initial approach to a landing, or to a point which a landing may be made visually.
Instrument approaches were estimated by developing a demand ratio that relates
instrument approaches to the corresponding level of existing operations. These
percentages are a ratio of annual instrument approaches to total operations and are shown
in Exhibit III.20.
1
u.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration, Yerw.inal
Area Forecasts: Fiscal Years 1981-1992 (Washington, D.C.: February 1981) p. 1-
6.
III-35
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Demand ratios are assumed to approximately represent a propensity for the aviation
user population to perform instrument approaches at each airport. Application of the
ratio to the operations forecasts produced a forecast of instrument approaches. Airports
with turf runways were assumed to have no instrument approaches throughout the forecast
period .
There are seven airports in the Downstate region equipped with instrument approaches
that recorded zero instrument approach operations' during 1982. These airports are
utility class or smaller type facilities. A weighted demand ratio was developed using
data from utility class or smaller airports for 1982. This ratio - 0~14 percent was then
applied uniformly to operational forecasts for each of the seven airports without
historical instrument approach information. The results are presented in Exhibit III.21
along with the forecast instrument approaches for all airports in the Downstate region
with instrument approach capabilities.
Exhibit III.20 - INSTRUMENT APPROACH RATIOS. BY AIRPORT
1982
1982 Instrument Demand
Airport Name Operations Approaches Ratio
Brookhaven 131,100 4 0.003%
Dutchess County 92,9861 683 0.735%
Elizabeth 14,600 21 0.144%
John F. Kennedy 28,508 2420 8.489%
La Guardia 25,132 1746 6.947%
L.1. MacArthur 222,943 5864 2.630%
M:>ntauk 8,350 1 0.012%
Orange County 82,600 95 0.115%
Republic 200,122 5686 2.841%
Stewart 117,340 503 0.429%
Stormville 60,350 5 0.008%
Suffolk County 124,250 36 0.029%
Sullivan County
International 18,000 230 1.278%
Westchester County 180,103 5789 3.214%
1
Airport records indicate more operations, but tower records were used to conform
to the instrument approach data source.
III-36
1
2
From previous exhibit
Derived by multiplying the demand ratio times total airport operations.
III-37
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FORECAST OF FLEET MIX
Fleet mix refers to the physical characteristics of a population of aircraft
registered in a county or based at a particular airport. General aviation aircraft are
grcuped into classes according to their landing speed, weight, and number and type of
engines.
Aircraft with dissimilar operating characteristics require different types of airport
facilities. These facility variables include runway length and strength, fuel types,
approach aids, par ling facilities, and noise abatement procedures required. For this
reason, it is essential to estimate what types of aircraft will be operating in the study
area.
Most general aviation airports have four categories of aircraft which either operate
or base at the facility. Class E aircraft are typically light, single-engine aircraft
such as the Beech Musketeer and the Cessna Series 150-182. Class D aircraft include most
light, twin-engine and some heavy, single-engine aircraft. The Cessna 310, Beechcraft
Bonanza and Piper Navajo are examples of Class D aircraft. Class C aircraft can include
some heavy, twin-engine propeller aircraft although, more typically, this class comprises
the business jet fleet with aircraft such as the Rockwell Saberliner and vairous Lear Jet
models. The 'other' category includes rotary wing aircraft, gliders and balloons.
The general aviation fleet mix forecast begins with a review of the forecasts of the
U.S. general aviation fleet through the year 2005 as estimated by the FM. Exhibit III.22
indicates that Class E aircraft will continue to dominate the U.S. fleet, but with a
continuously decreasing share of the total market. Class D, Class C, and the "Other"
category show annual growth ratios of approximately 3.4 percent, 5.1 percent, and 4.1
percent, respectively, during the planning period. These three categories of aircraft
combined, however, will represent only a little over one quarter of the fleet by the year
2005.
I Exhibit III.22 - GENERAL AVIATION FLEET MIX FORECAST: UNITED STATES
I
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Year
1982
1985
1990
I 1995
2005
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Class E Class D Class C Other
% of % of % of % of
Total Number Total Number Total Number Total Number
78.7% 167,900 12.0% 25,500 3.7% 7,900 5.6% 12,000
77.2% 171,100 12.6% 28,000 4.2% 9,400 6.0% 13,400
75.8% 203,400 12.9% 34,700 4.9% 13,300 6.4% 17 ,300
74.8% 238,800 12.9% 41,300 5.4% 17,200 6.9% 22,000
73.5% 304,700 13.1% 54,500 6.0% 25,000 7.4% 30,500
1
Federal Aviation Administration, FAA Aviation Forecasts: Facal Years 1983-1994,
(Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Transportation, February, 1983), Table 5
with 1995 and 2005 values projected by Cress & Associates.
III-38
The fleet mix for the Downstate region was compared to that of the u.s. The 1982
fleet mix of registered aircraft is presented, by county, for the Downstate region in
Exhibit III.23. A forecast of fleet mix was prepared that assumes future mix changes will
approximate the FAA's estimates. Exhibit III.24 presents the fleet mix forecast for the
Downstate region.
Exhibit III.23 - 1982 REGISTERED AIRCRAFr FLEET MIX: DOWNSTATE NEW YORK
County Class E Class D
Bronx 18, 5
Dutchess 241 10
Kings 67 13
Nassau 388 73
New York 304 134
Orange 152 10
PutIUllll 59 6
Queens 158 17
Richmond "29 3
Rockland 115 13
Suffolk 597 69
Sullivan 72 7
Ulster 100 3
Westchester 266 55
Total 2,566 418
Class C
Other Total
4 27
8 265
5 85
51 523
99 709
6 170
2 67
14 195
5 37
16 145
42 710
15 94
10 113
30 411
307 3,551
6
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172
2
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60
260
III-39
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Exhibit III.24 - REGISTERED AIRCRAFr FLEET MIX FORECAST: DOWNSTATE NEW YORK
Class E Class D Class C Other
% of % of % of % of
Year Total Number Total Number Total Number Total Number
1982 72.3% 2566 11.8% 418 7.3% 260 8.6% 307
1985 72.0% 2623 12.0% 437 7.4% 270 8.6% 313
1990 71.4% 3140 12.4% 545 7.6% 334 8.6% 378
1995 70.6% 3672 12.9% 671 7.8% 406 8.7% 452
2005 69.5% 4697 13.6% 919 8.2% 554 8.7% 588
SllMMARY OF FORECASTS
Exhibit III.25 presents a summary of airline activity forecasts at the region's
airline airports, exclusive of the Port Authority airports. Overall, the airline
facilities are expected to handle a total of 1,050,800 passenger enplanements by the year
2005 - a 168 percent growth over the 1985 expected level of 626,500. Airline operations,
on the other hand, are expected to grow from the present 65,600 operations to 92,200
operations by the year 2005 - a growth of 141 percent for the same period. The smaller
growth rate in operations reflects the more efficient use of resources by the airlines in
the form of constant or increasing load factors and larger aircraft equipment.
Exhibit III.25 - SllMMARY OF AIRLINE ACTIVITY AT NON-PORT AUTHORITY AIRLINE AIRPORTS
Airport/Activity
1995
2005
1985
1990
Dutchess County
Enplanements
Airline Operations
31,400 34,800 37,300 42,800
12,600 13,600 14,600 16,600
5,400 7,100 9,900 14,600
3,800 4,100 4,700 5,800
320,200 401,900 458,900 623,200
30,200 36,500 38,200 44,500
269,500 299,500 320,900 370,200
19,000 21,000 21,000 25,300
East Hampton
Enplanements
Airline Operations
L. I. MacArthur
Enplanements
Airline Operations
Westchester County
Enplanements
Airline Operations
III -40
The region's registered aircraft are expected to increase from the 1982 level of
3,551 to 6,760 in the year 2005 - a 190 percent growth. Registered aircraft based at
network airports are expected to grow from the 1982 level of 2,722 to 5,135 in the year
2005 - a 189 percent growth. This forecast represents only the potential number of based
aircraft, given that adequate airport facilities are available in the future.
General aviation operations in the Downstate Region are expected to grow from a 1982
level of over 1.70 million to approximately 3.21 million by the year 2005 - a 189 percent
growth during the period. Exhibit 111.26 presents a summary of general aviation activity
forecasts at the region's network airports. Exhibit 1I1.27 presents a summary of total
operations at airports with more than one source of operations.
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I Exhibit III.26 - SUMMARY OF GENERAL AVIATION BASED AIRCRAFT AND OPERATIONS FORECASTS
I 1985 1990 1995 2005
CountylAirport BAIC1 Op's2 BAIC1 Op's2 BAIc1 Op's2 BAIC1 Op's2
I IIudaon . Valley Forecast Region
Dutchess County
I Dutchess County 154 181,720 171 201,780 203 239,540 264 311 , 520
Sky Acres 67 37,520 74 41,440 87 48,720 114 63,840
I Sky Park 30 10,200 33 11,220 39 13,260 51 17,340
Stormvi11e 108 43,200 120 48,000 142 56 ,800 185 74,000
Orange County
I Orange County 116 88,160 129 98,040 152 115,520 198 150,480
Randa 11 41 24,190 45 26,550 53 31,270 70 41,300
I Stewart 40 88,800 44 97,680 52 115,440 68 150,960
Warwick 23 11 ,960 26 13,520 31 16,120 40 20,800
Putnam County
I Mahapac 24 11,520 27 12,960 32 15,360 42 20,160
I Rockland County
Ramapo Valley 165 153,450 183 170,190 217 201,810 282 262,260
I Sullivan County
Monticello 20 1,200 23 1,380 27 1,620 35 2,100
I Sullivan County
International 30 19,200 33 21,120 39 24,960 51 32,640
Wurtsboro-
Sullivan County 87 76,560 96 84,480 114 100,320 148 130,240
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Ulster County
I Kingston-Ulster 33 14,850 37 16,650 44 19,800 57 25,650
WR 18 4,140 20 4,600 24 5,520 31 7,130
Marlboro 4 200 5 250 6 300 7 350
I Ssges 6 7 8 11
Stanton 7 2,380 8 2,720 10 3,400 13 4,420
Wsllkill 51 2,550 57 2,850 68 3,400 88 4,400
I 1 BAIC = Based Aircraft
I 2 Op's = Operations
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I III-42
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Exhibit III.26 - SUMMARY OF GENERAL AVIATION BASED AIRCRAYr AND I
OPERATIONS FORECASTS (Con't) I
1985 1990 1995 2005
County/Airport BA/C1 Op's2 BA/C1 Op's2 BA/C1 Op's2 BA/cl Op's2 I
Westchester County
Westchester County 462 170,940 513 189,810 607 224,590 789 291,930 I
Long Island Forecast Region I
Qoeens County
Flushing 31 31,000 38 38,000 45 45,000 58 58,000 I
John F. Kennedy 3 28,500 4 38,000 4 38,000 6 57,000
La Guard ia 8 25,120 10 31,400 12 37,680 16 50,240
Suffolk County I
Bayport 59 11,210 71 13,490 84 15,960 109 20,710 I
Brookhaven 165 136,950 200 166,000 236 195,880 307 254,810
Goram 4 200 5 250 6 300 8 400
East Hampton 53 49,290 64 59,520 76 70,680 99 92,070
Elizabeth 2 14,600 3 21,900 3 21,900 4 29 , 200 I
L. I. MacArthur 388 205,640 468 248,040 553 293,090 719 381,070
Mattituck 24 17,040 29 20,590 34 24,140 45 31,950
Montauk 16 9,600 19 11,400 23 13,800 29 17,400 I
Republic 547 207,860 660 250,800 780 296,400 1,014 385,320
Spadaro 18 1,260 21 1,470 25 1,750 33 2,310
Suffolk County 78 118,560 94 142,880 111 168,720 144 218,880
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1 BA/C = Based Aircraft
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2 OP's = Operations
Exhibit III. 27 - TOTAL OPERATIONS FOR AIRPORTS WITIl MORE TIlAN ONE ACTIVITY SOURCE I
Airport/Category 1985 1990 1995 2005 I
Dutchess County I
Air line 12,600 13,600 14,600 16,600
Military 4,100 4,100 4,100 4,100
General Aviation 181,720 201,780 239 , 540 311,520
Total 198,420 219,480 258,240 332,220 I
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III-43 I
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I Exhibit III.27 - TarA!. OPERATIONS FOR AIRPORTS WITH MORE THAN ONE ACTIVITY SOURCE (Can't.)
I Airport/Category 1985 1990 1995 2005
I East Hampton
Airline 3,800 4,100 4,700 5,800
General Aviation 49,290 59,520 70,680 92,070
I Total 53,090 63,620 75,380 97,870
L.1. MacArthur
Airline 30,200 36,500 38,200 44,500
I Military 10,200 10,200 10,200 10,200
General Aviation 205,640 248,040 293,090 381,070
I Total 246,040 294,740 341,490 435,770
Orange County
I Military 600 600 600 600
General Aviation 88,160 98,040 115,520 150,480
Total 88,760 98,640 116,120 151,080
I Republic
Military 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
I General Aviation 207,860 250,800 296,400 . 385,320
Total 208,860 251,800 297,400 386,320
I Sky Acres
Military 800 800 800 800
General Aviation 37,520 41,440 48,720 63,840
I Total 38,320 42,240 49,520 64,640
Stewart
I Mil i tary 34,600 34,600 34,600 34,600
General Aviation 88,800 97,680 115,440 150,960
I Total 123,400 132,280 150,040 185,560
Suffolk County
I Military 13,600 13 ,600 13,600 13,600
General Aviation 118,560 142,880 168,720 218,880
Total 132,160 156,480 182,320 232,480
I Westchester County
Air li ne 19,000 21,000 21,000 25,300
Military 300 300 300 300
I General Aviation 170,940 189,810 224,590 291,930
Total 190,240 211,110 245,890 317,530
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