HomeMy WebLinkAboutLong Island Growth Area Off-Peak Study 1988 prepared by,,,
LONG ISLAND REGIONAL PLANNING BOARD
LONG ISLAND HIGH GROWTH AREA
OFF-PEAK STUDY
- 1988
NOTICE:
This document is disseminated under the sponsorship of the
Department of Transportation in the interest of information ex-
change. The United States Government assumes no liability for
the contents or use thereof.
The United States Government does not endorse products or
manufacturers. Trade or manufacturers' names appear herein
solely because they considered essentail to the object of this
report.
LONG ISLAND HIGH GROWTH AREA - OFF-PEAK STUDY
Lee E. Koppelman
Executive Director
Arthur Kunz
Project Director
1988
LONG ISLAND REGIONAL PLANNING BOARD
This document was prepared by the Long Island Regional Planning Board under a
grant from the Metropolitan Transportation Authority.
LONG ISLAND REGIONAL PLANNING BOARD
Edward Cook
Chairman
NASSAU COUNTY
Ludwig Hasl
Commissioner
Department of Public Works
Peter T. King
Comptroller
Honorable Thomas S. Gulotta
County Executive
Honorable Joseph Mondello
Vice Chairman
County Board of Supervisors
Herbert Libert
Director
County Planning Commission
Patrick F. Caputo
John Wickham
Lee E. Koppelman
Executive Director
Ex Officio
Advisory
County Coordination
Jv
John J. Hart
Vice Chairman
SUFFOLK COUNTY
Joseph P. Hurley
Commissioner
Department of Public Works
Joseph Caputo
Comptroller
Honorable Patrick G. Halpin
County Executive
Honorable Sondra Bachety
Presiding Officer
County Legislature
Arthur Kunz
Deputy Director
County Planning Department
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
Foreword .................................................................................................................................................................. vii
The Study Area .......................................................................................................................................................... 1
Land Use ................................................................................................................................................................... 1
Existing Employment ................................................................................................................................................. 4
Future Employment Areas ......................................................................................................................................... 4
Job Projections in Target Areas ................................................................................................................................. 5
Occupations in Demand ............................................................................................................................................ 7
Transit Available Labor Force .................................................................................................................................... 7
Projected Labor Force in Transit Accessible Areas .................................................................................................... 9
Employer Survey ..................................................................................................................................................... 12
Opportunities for Railroad Use ................................................................................................................................. 12
Coordination of Transportation Services .................................................................................................................. 15
Conclusions ............................................................................................................................................................ 16
Appendix ................................................................................................................................................................. 17
APPENDIX
Map 1. Overall Map Showing Detailed Study Areas.
Map 2. Melville-E. Farmingdale (110 Corridor) Study Area.
Map 3. Bohemia-Ronkonkoma (Islip-MacArthur Airport) Study Area.
Map 4. Deer Park Study Area.
V
LIST OF TABLES
Table No. Table Page
1 Industrial Zoned Land by Use (in Acres)- Nassau-Suffolk- February 1988, LIRR Study Area Data ................ 2
2 industrial Zoned Land by Use (in Acres)- Nassau County- February 1988, LIRR Study Area Data ................ 2
3 Industrial Zoned Land by Use (in Acres)- Suffolk County- February 1988, LIRR Study Area Data ................. 3
4 Office Buildings- Nassau Suffolk - Aoril 1988, LIRR Study Area Data ............................................................ 4
5 Industrial Employment- Nassau-Suffolk February 1988, LIRR Study Area Data ........................................... 5
6 Projected Industrial Employment- Nassau-Suffolk February 1988, LIRR Study Area Data ............................ 6
7 Projected Employment Growth, by Industry Through the Year 2000 Within the Target Area .......................... 6
8 TheCivilianLaborForceLivingintheTargetAreabySex, 1980 .................................................................... 7
9 Occupations in Demand in the Target Area, Year 2000, by Industry ............................................................... 8
10 Occupations of Employed Persons in the Labor Force, 1980- Target Area .................................................... 8
11 Projected Employment and Labor Force Growth, by Occupation in the Target Area, 1985-2000 .................... 9
12 Employed Persons Residing Within One-Half Mile of Long Island Raili'oad Stations in Brooklyn,
Queens and Nassau, 1980, by Occupation .............................................................................................. 10
13 Employed Persons Residing Within One-Half Mile of Subways Connecting to the Long Island
Railroad Stations in Brooklyn & Queens, 1980, by Occupation ................................................................ 11
14 Projected Labor Force in Catchment Areas Within Walking Distance of Brooklyn,
Queens and Western Nassau LIRR Stations ........................................................................................... 11
15 Projected Number of Persons Within Selected Occupational Groups Residing Within Walking
Distance of Brooklyn, Queens and Western Nassau LIRR Stations, Year 2000 ....................................... 12
16 Number of Companies Indicating Hiring Problems by Occupation and Number of Average Number of
Positions Needed Within One Year and Within 2-5 Years ........................................................................ 13
17 The Five Occupations With Anticipated Recruitment Problems Within the Next Year and Within the
Next Two to Five Years, Ranked by Highest Number of Firms With Recruitment Needs
and Highest Number of Employees Needed ............................................................................................ 14
18 Approximate Hourly Wage for Openings for Occupations With Anticipated Recruitment Problems .............. 14
vi
PARTICIPATING STAFF
Planning
Arthur Kunz Project Director
Roy Fedelem
Pearl M. Kamer
Carol E. Walsh
Richard Burger
Book Preparation & Graphics
Anthony Tucci
Carl Lind
Thomas Frisenda
Clerical
Paula Davantzis
Penny Lasquadro
Accounting
Lucille Gardella
LOCATION MAP
VII
FOREWORD
The Long Island Regional Planning Board obtained a grant from
the Urban Mass Transportation Authority and began work in
January 1988 to determine the potential demand for off-peak
Long Island Railroad service to the newly electrified portion of
the main line. The area between the Hicksville and
Ronkonkoma Stations is expected to continue as Long Island's
high growth area for industrial and other employment. This is
consistent with the 1970 Nassau-Suffolk Comprehensive
Development P/an which targets this central corridor of the
Region for industrial and employment development. This
corridor contains the Long Island Railroad main line, the Long
Island Expressway and the Northern State Parkway, and con-
tinues to be the site of major office and industrial development
in the region.
This report is a summary and compilation of data derived from
the three tasks that comprise the previous phases of the study.
Task 1, published in April 1988, contains the results of initial
field surveys that determine existing job concentrations and
maximum future growth.
Task 2 analyzes the labor force in the study area (central
corridor), a wider target area (six town area) and selected
transit accessible areas in Brooklyn, Queens and western
Nassau. Projections by job type and occupation are also con-
tained in the report which was completed in May of 1988.
Task 3 was completed in September 1988 and contains the
results of the employer survey that was conducted in the study
area.
viii
LONG ISLAND
HIGH GROWTH AREA
S UD¥
THE STUDY AREA
The study area is defined as the corridor that extends from Post
Avenue in Westbury to Route 112 in Medford. This en-
compasses the portion of the Long Island Railroad that provides
service between Hicksville and Ronkonkoma. This section of
the track was electrified in January of 1988. The communities
and boundaries of the study area are shown on Map 1 in the
Appendix. The industrial and commercial land that is included in
the survey area is within five to ten minutes driving time of the
electrified stations between Hicksville and Ronkonkoma.
There are approximately 15,000 acres of land zoned for in-
dustrial purposes within the study area. This industrially zoned
land also contains almost one-half of the major office develop-
ment on Long Island. Table 1 indicates the land that is zoned
for industrial purposes within the study area by major municipal-
ity and concludes that 25% of it is still available for further
development.
LAND USE
Tables 2 and 3 indicate how the industrially zoned land within
the study area is used and the amount of land available for new
construction on either vacant land or land that is presently un-
derutilized. The tables show that Hauppauge, East Farming-
dale, Melville, Bethpage and Deer Park have the most land
used for industrial purposes, while Holbrook, Melville and
Ronkonkoma have the most zoned that is presently vacant.
Municipality
Built
Before
1/87
Table 1
Industially Zoned Land by Use (In Acres) - Nassau-Suffolk Counties -February 1988
LIRR Study Area Data
- Industrial - - Commercial - - Public & Utility - - Reuse - - Vacant -
New Built New
Since Under Total Before Since Under Total Trans./ Total Total
1/87 Constr. Acres % 1/87 1/87 Constr. Acres % Govt. Utility Acres % Res. Other Acres % Acres %
- Total-
Study Area
%of %of
Acres Total Vacant
N Hempstead 135.9 7.6 143.5 66.5
Oyster Bay 1502.9 43.2 7.1 1553.2 55.9
Nassau Study Area 1638.8 50.8 7.1 1696.7 50.7
Babylon 1428.3 37.5 29.7 1495.5 51.9
Brookhaven 118.9 38.0 7.8 164.7 21.3
Huntington 648.6 9.0 0.0 657.6 49.3
Islip 1658.7 202.9 131.7 1993.3 36.2
Srnithtown 865.1 31.9 6.9 903.9 69.9
Suffolk Study Area 4719.6 319.3 176.1 5215.0 44.2
Study Area Total 6358.4 370.1 183.2 6911.7 46.7
Source: LIRPB field survey, 1988
Municipality
24.1 0.3 24.4
219.8 12.8 1.0 233,6
243.9 13.1 1.0 258,0
217.8 5.0 3.9 226.7
10.4 4.8 0.0 15.2
250.9 14.1 18.9 283.9
153.9 29.9 27.3 211.1
45.0 17.7 4.0 66.7
678.0 71.5 54.1 803.6
921.9 84.6 55.1 1061.6
11.3 14.1 O.4
8.4 291.9 343.7
8.6 306.0 344.1
7.9 70.1 629.7
2.0 23.6 159.0
21.3 48.8 16.0
3.8 60.8 1568.1
5.2 0.0 77.6
6.8 203,3 2450.4
7.2 509.3 2794.5
14.5 6.7
635.6 22,4
650.1 21.3
699.8 24.3
182.6 23.6
64.8 4.9
1628.9 29.6
77.6 6.0
2653.7 22.5
3303.8 22.3
3.8 19.5
14.2 128.4
18.0 147.9
17.8 174.1
22.3 1.8
1.5 3.0
59.2 84.0
0.0 0.0
100.8 262.9
118.8 410.8
23.3 10.8 10.2
142.6 5,1 225.5
165,9 8.8 235.7
6.7 I 267,9
191.9
24.1 3,1 I 387.8
4.5 0.3I 323.2
143.2 2.6 ] 1534.6
0.0 0.0 245.5
363.7 3.1 2759.0
529.6 3.6 I 2994.7
4.7 215.9 1.5 0.3
8.1 2790.5 18.9 7.5
7.9 3006.4 20.3 7.9
9.3 2881.8 19.5 8.9
50,1 774.4 5.2 12.9
24.2 1334.0 9.0 10.8
27.8 5511.1 37.2 51.2
19.0 1293.7 8.7 8.2
23.4 11795.0 79.7 92.1
20.2 14801.4 100.0 100.0
- Industrial -
Built New
Before Since Under
1/87 1/87 Constr. Acres
Table 2
Industially Zoned Land by Use (In Acres)- Nassau County -February 1988
LIRR Study Area Data
- Commercial - - Public & Utility- - Reuse - - Vacant-
Built New
Total Before Since Under Total Trans./ Total Total
% 1/87 1/87 Constr. Acres % Govt. Utility Acres % Res. Other Acres % Acres
Twn Study Area
%of %of
Acres Total Vacant
Town of Oyster Bay
Bethpage 596.9 15.1 5.0 617.0
Farmingdale 4.7 4.7
Hicksville 296.3 19.2 0.9 316.4
Jericho 106.5 106.5
Old Bethpage 47.4 47.4
Plainview 271.8 1.2 273.0
South Farmingdale 3.7 3.7
Syosset 88.3 7.7 1.2 97.2
Woodbury 87.3 87.3
Town Total 1502.9 43.2 7.1 1553.2
Town of N. Hempstaad
New Cassel 135.9 7.6 143.5
Town Total 135.9 7.6 143.5
Nassau County Total 1638.8 50.8 7.1 1696.7
Source: LIRPB field survey, 1988
87.1
44.3
48.5
57.4
16.6
66.8 27.3
6.6 1.8
34.7 38.8
42,6 74.0
55.7 219.8
21.3
2.0
15.3
39.3
66.5 24.1
66,5 24,1
56.41 243.9
21.3 3.0
2.0 18,9
11.5 26.8 4.1
39.3 21.2
0,0 0.0
1.3 1,0 29.6 7.2
1.8 3.2
38.8 13.9
74.0 36.1
12.8 1.0 233.6 8.4
0.3
0.3
13.1
24.4
24,4
1,0 258.0
24.4 14.0 38.4 5,4
1.2 1.2 11.3
150.2 106.6 256.8 39.4
0.0 0.0
71.5 114.3 185.8 65.2
3.0 31.5 34.5 8.4
16.3 2.4 18.7 33.6
16.8 45.3 62.1 22.2
9,7 28.4 38.1 18.6
291.9 343.7 635.6 22.8
11.3 14.1 0.4 14.5 ~i~
11.3 14.1 0.4 14.5
8.6] 306.0 344.1 650.1 21.61
0.4 17.6 18.0 2.5
1.8 0.8 2.6 24.5
5.3 16.5 21.8 3.3
0.4 38.0 38.4 20.7
4.2 4.2 1.5
4.7 4.7 1.2
1.0 16.5 17.5 31.4
5.3 30.1 35.4 12.7
0.0 0.0
14.2 128.4 142.6 5.1
3.8 19.5 23.3 10.8
3.8 19.5 23.3 10.8
18.0 147.9 165.9 5.5
13.7 1.9
0.1 0.9
30.3 4.6
1.2 0.6
47.5 16.7
66.7 16.3
14.0 25.1
46.3 16.5
5.7 2.8
225.5 8.1
10.2 4.7
10.2 4.7
235.7 7.8
708.4 25.4 6.1
10.6 0.4 0.0
652.1 23.4 13.4
185.4 6.6 0.5
284.9 10.2 21.1
408.5 14.6 29.6
55.7 2.0 6.2
279.8 10.0 20.5
205.1 7.3 2.5
2790.5 100.0 100.0
215.9 100.0 100.0
215.9 100.0 100.0
3006.4
Municipality
- Industrial
Built New
Before Since Under
1/87
Table 3
Industially Zoned Land by Use (In Acres) - Suffolk County -February 1988
LIRR Study Area Data
- Commercial - - Public & Utility - - Reuse - - Vacant -
Built New
Total Before Since Under Total Trans./ Total Total
1/87 Constr. Acres % 1/87 1/87 Constr. Acres % Govt. Utility Acres % Res. Other Acres % Acres %
- Total-
Twn Study Area
%of %of
Acres Total Vacant
Town of Babylon
Deer Park
E. Farmingdale
W. Babylon
Wyandanch
Town Total
Town of Brookhaven
Farmingville
Holtsville
L. Ronkonkoma
Medford
Town Total
Town of Huntington
Dix Hills
Melville
Town Total
Town of Islip
Bohemia
Brentwood
Central Islip
Hauppauge
Holbrook
Holtsville
Islandia
North Bay Shore
North Great River
Ronkonkoma
Town Total
Town of Smithtown
Commack
Hauppauge
488.2 11.5 13.4 513.1 79.4
703.4 4.8 3.3 711.5 41.0
160.4 16.3 5.0 181.7 52.5
76.3 4.9 8.0 89.2 58.0
1428.3 37.5 29.7 1495.5 51.9
4.6 4.6 6.0
114.3 36.1 7.8 158.2 26.0
1.9 1.9 18.6
0.0 0.0
118,9 38.0 7.8 164.7 21.3
30.0
179.9
4.3
3.6
217.8
0.9
2.7
6.8
10.4
14.0
14.0 100.0 I
634.6 9.0 643.6 48.8 250.9
648.6 9.0 0.0 657.6 49.3 250.9
395.8 50.8 7.9 454.5 56.3
142.8 15.9 52.4 211.1 37.9
89.3 13.4 1.7 104.4 696
190.6 7.1 197.7 67.8
125.1 24.0 14.2 163.3 26.0
12.5 12.5 48.6
143,2 3.5 146.7 34.9
255.0 13.6 11.0 279.6 57.2
0.0 0.0
316.9 69.2 37.4 423.5 19.8
1658.7 202.9 131.7 1993.3 36.2
113.7 2.0 1.3 117.0 45.2
751.4 29.9 5.6 786.9 76.1
Town Total 865.1 31.9 6.9 903.9 69.9
Suffolk County Tntal 4719.6 319.3 176.1 5215 228.5
Source: LIRPB field survey, 1988
31.2
10.4
1.3
13.9
3.3
50.7
10.8
1.0
31.3 18.5
153.9 29.9
30.0 4.6
5.0 3.9 188.8 10,9
4.3 1.2
3.6 2.3
5.0 3.9 226.7 7.9
0.9 1.2
4.8 7.5 1.2
0.0
0.0 2.0
6.8 8,6
4.8 0.0 15.2
0.0 0.0
14,1 18.9 283.9 21.5
14.1 18.9 283.9 21.3
6.5 6.2 43.9
10.4
1.3
4.9 2.2 21.0
3.3
0.0
15.5 66.2
10.8
1,0
3.4 53.2
27.3 211.1
12.1 12.1
32.9 17.7 4.0 54.6
45.0 17.7 4.0 66.7
678 71,5 54.1 883.6
16.2 9.8 26.0 4.0
40.2 513.3 553.5 31.9
8.7 96.4 105,1 30.3
5.0 10.2 15.2 9.9
70.1 629.7 699.8 24.3
5.1 10.7 15,8 2.4
3.9 158,4 162.3 9.4
7.2 4.1 11.3 3.3
1,6 0.9 2.5 1.6
17.8 174.1 191.9 6,7
3.2 3.2 4.2 1.3 1.3 1.7
23.6 147,5 171.1 28.1 16.7 1.8 18.5 3.0
7,4 7.4 72.5I 0.0 0.0
0.9 0.9 1.1[ 4.3 4.3 5.5
23.6 159.0 182.6 23.6I ~.3 1.8 24.1 3.1
0.0 4.9
0.0
48.8 16.0 64.8 4.9
48.8 16.0 64.8
5.4 8.8 33.9
1.9 4.9 48.8
0.9 8.6 3.1
7.2 10.1 2.9
0.5 8.7 68.2
0.0 1.8
15.8 8.2 33.8
2.2 3.9 44.5
62.5
2.5 5.8 1332.9
3.8 60.8 1568.1
4.7 14.6
5.3 63.0
5.2 0.0 77.6
40.1 203.3 ~50.4
53.7
11.7 7.8
13.0 4.5
76.9 12.2
1.8 7.0
42.0 10.0
48.4 9.9
0.0 0.0
1338.7 62.5
1628.9 29.6
14.6 5.6
63.0 6.1
77.6 6.0
2653.7 88.3
3
0.0
1.5 3.0 4.5
1.5 3.0 4.5
19.8 18.5 38.3
0.5 8.3 8.8
4.5 4.5
0.4 0.5 0.9
7.1 9.6 16.7
0.0
5,7 5.7
11.3 33.6 44.9
0.6 0.6
9.3 13.5 22.8
59.2 84.0 143.2
0.0
0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0
100.8 262.9 363.7
61.4 9.5
119.3 6.9
43.9 12.7
43.3 28.2
267.9 9.3
66.4 86.9
253.7 41.7
0.9 8.8
66.8 84.8
387.8 50.1
0.0
0.3 323.2
0.3 323.2
4.7 227.7
1.6 273.3
3.0 28,0
0.3 58.9
2.7 367.9
0.0 11.4
1.4 159.6
9.2 105.0
37.5
1.1 3O2,8
2.6 1534.6
0.0 115.4
0.0 130.1
0.0 245.5
12.7 2759
0.0
24.5
24.2
28.2
49.0
18.7
20.2
58.6
44.4
38.0
21.5
0.0
14.1
27.8
44.5
12.6
19.0
130.4
646.3 22.4 22.9
1735.4 60.2 44.5
346.3 12.0 16.4
153.8 5.3 16,2
2881.8 100.0 100.0
76.4 9.9 17.1
609.0 78.6 65.4
10,2 1.3 0.2
78.8 10.2 17.2
774.4 100.0 100.0
14.0 1.0 0.0
1320.0 99.0 100.0
1334.0 100.0 100.0
807.1 14.6 14.8
557.3 10.1 17.8
149.9 2.7 1.8
291.5 5.3 3.8
628.1 11.4 24.0
25.7 0.5 8.7
420.2 7.6 10.4
488.7 8.9 6.8
1.6 0.0 0.0
2141.0 38.8 19.7
5511.1 100.0 100.0
259.1 20.0 47.0
1034.6 80.0 53.0
1293.7 100.0 100.0
11795
The study area also includes some retail activity plus the
category of hotels which provide employment in addition to the
industries and offices.
The three maps following the study ama map show the in-
dustrial zoning and land use patterns for the three areas with
the greatest opportunities for marketing off peak use of the
railroad. The Route 110 corridor includes the office complexes
in Melville and the industries in the Farmingdale area, Old
Bethpage and Plainview. The Deer Park-Brentwood industrial
complex surrounds the new Deer Park station. The Long Island
MacArthur Airport map includes the employment area of the air-
port and the surrounding communities of Ronkonkoma,
Bohemia and Holbreok.
EXISTING EMPLOYMENT
Employment information can be broken down to two separate
categories: major office buildings and general industrial use. In
the former category, there are 15 million square feet of office
buildings that contain at least 15,000 square feet. This capacity
provides office space for at least 44,000 employees in major
office buildings in the study area. Table 4 summarizes the
amount of major office space by major municipality. The
community of Melville has the most office space in the entire
study area with over 5 million square feet. Jericho follows with
2.2 million and both Hauppauge and Woodbury have over 1
million, while the Village of Islandia is approaching 1 million.
Industrial employment is summarized in Table 5 which shows
that Nassau has 48,000 such jobs within the study area, while
Suffolk has almost 130,000. The communities with the most in-
dustrial jobs are Hauppauge with over 30,000, East Farming-
dale with almost 25,000, Bethpage and Melville with 18,000
each, Deer Park with 13,000 and Bohemia and Plainview with
9,000 each.
Table 4
Office Buildings - Nassau Suffolk -April 1988
LIRR Study Area Data
Square Estimated
Municipality Footage Employees
Town of Hempstead 189,150
Town of North Hempstead 94,000
Town of Oyster Bay 5,041,750
Nassau County Total 5,324,900
Town of Babylon
Town of Brookhaven
Town of Huntington
Town of Islip
Town of Smithtown
Suffolk County Total
341,000
376,000
5,348,000
2,230,000
977,000
9,272,000
Nassau-Suffolk Total
14,596,900
Source: LIRPB field survey, 1988 and estimates,
FUTURE EMPLOYMENT AREAS
567
282
15,125
15,974
1,023
1,128
16,044
6,690
2,931
27,816
43,790
The projection of total industrial jobs in the study and between
1990 and 2010 indicates an increase of over 50% from 175,000
jobs to 275,000 jobs. This assumes that all vacant industrially
zoned land will be developed in this time period. The town and
County totals are summarized in Table 6. The data for Table 6
was derived by using the average zoning restrictions for each of
the areas and applying this to the vacant and reusable land that
is zoned for industrial purposes. The table also includes a
growth factor since many of the firms that have moved to Suf-
folk County have oversized sites that allow expansion.
4
Table 5
Industrial Employment - Nassau-Suffolk - February 1988
LIRR Study Area Data
Municipality Year
Acres
Used For Emp/
Industry Employees Acre
Town of Hempstead
Town of North Hempstead
Town of Oyster Bay
Nassau County Total
Town of Babylon
Town of Brookhaven
Town of Huntington
Town of Islip
Town of Smithtown
Suffolk County Total
Nassau-Suffolk Total
1979 0.0 0 0.0
1988 0.0 0
1979 121.1 4,103 33.9
1988 143.5 4,862
1979 1,538.4 44,111 28.7
1988 1,553.2 43,465
1979 1,659.5 48,214 28.4
1988 1,696.7 48,327
1979 1,257.0 37,407 28.6
1988 1,495.5 42,721
1979 62.0 660 10.6
1988 164.7 1,829
1979 485.8 13,851 28.5
1988 657.6 18,808
1979 965.4 19,384 20.1
1988 1,993.3 37,997
1979 455.0 13,928 30.6
1988 903.9 27,976
1979 3,225.2 85,230 26.4
1988 5,215.0 129,331
1979 4,884.7 133,444 25.7
1988 6,911.7 177,658
Source: LIRPB
Under this procedure, the Syosset and Plainview areas could
accommodate 2,000 more industrial jobs each, while the Route
110 Corridor could accommodate 20,000, and the Long Island
MacArthur Airport area, over 25,000. Some of the above growth
could be in office or retail use since this is often the pattern of
development as needed services follow major industrial growth.
However, there is employment associated with these uses so
that if the land is developed, it will likely produce at least the
same number of jobs.
Most of the study area has concentrated on land that is already
zoned for industrial purposes. There are a few limited opportun-
ities for further rezonings; however, the total amount of land is
likely to be small in comparison to that which already exists.
JOB PROJECTIONS in TARGET AREAS
This section requires estimates of employment and occupation-
al demand that is related to the study area. Therefore, a target
area of the entire Towns of Oyster Bay, Babylon, Huntington,
Smithtown, Islip and Brookhaven was determined to be primary
labor force zone for the study area which extends from West-
bury to Uedford. Previous journey-to-work studies have shown
that the workers in the study area could be expected to reside
in the towns encompassed by the target area.1
Projections of jobs were made for the target area in order to
allow comparison to the rest of the region. Table 7 shows the
projections for both areas.
1. The Journey to Work to Major Employment Center 1984, L.I.R.P.B.,
Hauppauge N,Y.
Municipality
Table 6
Projected Industrial Employment - Nassau-Suffolk - February 1988
LIRR Study Area Data
Acres
Used For 1988 Projected Projected Reuse Projected Vacant Projected
Industry Employees Emp./Acm Employees Acres Employees Acres
Projected # Change % Change
Employees Employees From 1988 From 1988
Town of North Hempstead 143.5 4,862 33.9 4,862
Town of Oyster Bay 1,553.2 43,465 28.7 43,465
Nassau County Total 1,696.7 48,327 28.4 48,327
23.3 789
142.6 4,089
165.9 4,878
10.2 346
225.5 6,466
235.7 6,812
5,997 1,135 23.3
54,020 10,555 24.3
60,017 11,690 24.2
Town of Babylon 1,495.5 42,721 29.1 43,448
Town of Brookhaven 164.7 1,829 15.8 2,598
Town of Huntington 657.6 18,808 29.9 19,658
Town of Islip 1,993.3 37,997 23.0 45,845
Town of Smithtown 903.9 27,976 31.0 27,976
Suffolk County Total 5,215.0 129,332 26.4 139,525
Nassau-Suffolk Total 6,911.7 177,659 27.2
SoMme: LIRPB Calculation (Number of employees per acre, based
191.9 6,247
24.1 361
4.5 135
143.2 3,329
0.0 0
363.7 10,071
267.9 7,631
387.8 5,535
323.2 9,696
1,534.6 33,002
245.5 7,029
2,759.0 62,892
187,852 529.6 14,949 12,994.7
on survey information, applied to all acreage).
69,704
57,325 14,604 34.2
8,493 6,664 364.3
29,489 10,681 56.8
82,175 44,178 116.3
35,005 7,029 25.1
212,488 83,156 64.3
1272,505 94,846 53.4
Table 7
Projected Employment Growth by Industry
Through the Year 2000 Within the Target Area
LIRPB Prej. For LIRPB Proj. For
Industry Nassau-Suffolk Target Area
Manufacturing Jobs (1) 34,503 34,503
Office-Type Jobs* (2) 97,553 64,385
Retail Jobs (3) 39,561 26,110
Public Sector Jobs (4) 10,725 7,078
*Includes finance, insurance, real estate, business services, legal
services, social services, miscellaneous services and membership
organizations.
Assumptions:
(1) All manufacturing jobs will occur in the study area.
(2) Office development is occuring outside the study area such as
Mitchel Field.
(3) Retail jobs are both in and out of the study area.
(4) University and other uses in the study area.
Source: LIRPB Internal staff estimates
The projections indicate that all of the new manufacturing jobs
are expected to be in the study area since the most land with
the best relationship to the east-west transportation corridors is
in the study area. The other jobs would be distributed over a
wider area.
Table 8 summarizes the 1980 labor force by sex for each of the
towns in the target area.
Table 8
The Civilian Labor Force Living in the Target Area
by Sex, 1980
Town Males Females Total
Oyster Bay 92,654 62,111 154,765
Babylon 55,961 40,985 96,946
Brookhaven 92,416 60,276 152,692
Huntington 57,649 38,300 95,949
Islip 78,372 54,526 132,898
Smithtown 31,464 21,301 52,765
Total 408,516 277,499 686,015
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1980
OCCUPATIONS in DEMAND
The occupations that are in most demand in the target area are
indicated in Table 9. The projection of 132,000 new jobs shows
one-third will be in administrative support and 22% as crafts-
men and operators2. Table 9 includes projections for entire
towns based on data derived from Long Island area data. This
information is based on a national occupation by industry matrix
which was adjusted to conform to Long Island's unique mix of
employment.
The 1980 occupations in the target area are shown in Table 10.
The administrative support positions contained 125,000 jobs;
professional specialties, 93,000; and the executive/managerial,
80,000.
The surpluses and deficits of each type of occupation is
summarized in Table 11. The occupational data reflects a na-
tional occupation by industry matrix which was adjusted to re-
flect Long Island's unique industry mix of employment.
Professional specialties are expected to have a surplus of
24,000 persons, while administrative support has a deficit of
20,000 and operators have a deficit of 8,000.
TRANSIT AVAILABLE LABOR FORCE
A survey of the labor force that is available within a half mile of
railroad stations in Brooklyn, Queens and western Nassau
shows that in 1980 there were 180,000 employed persons. Of
these employed persons, half were in jobs that could fill some
of the deficits in the study area. Table 12 summarizes the em-
ployment pattern in this area.
In order to expand the above base, the survey area was ex-
tended to include persons within a half mile of the major sub-
way connections to the Long Island Railroad stations in
Brooklyn and Queens3. This expanded the labor force base to
520,000 people and they are summarized in Table 13.
Because of the density of population in Brooklyn, this triples the
amount of labor fome. A two and one-half mile bus trip to
various railroad stations in western Nassau and eastern
Queens allows expansion of one-quarter million to the potential
labor fome area.
2. Projections are derived from employer suweys and updated employment
outlooks of the L.I.R.P.B.
3. Data is based on 1980 Census, however the general labor force
characteristics have not changed dramatically/to alter the results.
7
Occupation
Table 9
Occupations in Demand in the Target Area, Year 2000, by Industry
Manufacturing Office Jobs Retail Jobs Public Sector Jobs Total
% No. of % No. of % No. of % No. of %
Dist. Jobs Dist. Jobs Dist. Jobs Dist. Jobs Dist.
Total
No. of
Jobs
Executive, Administrative,
Managerial 8.01 2,764 22.25 14,326 11.21 2,927 14.60 1,033
Professional Specialty 5.26 1,815 1.55 998 1.30 339 6.00 425
Technical 3.53 1,218 2.51 1,616 0.19 50 6.98 494
Marketing & Sales 2.92 1,007 10.29 6,625 34.61 9,037 4.12 292
Administrative Support,
Including Clerical 11.7t 4,040 52.89 34,053 9.41 2,457 29.34 2,077
Service 1.76 607 5.90 3,799 30.25 7,898 25.80 1,826
Farming, Forestry, Fishing 0.53 183 1.18 760 0.03 8 0.34 24
Precision Production,
Craft & Repair 19.00 6,556 2.64 1,700 6.50 1,697 4.06 287
Operators, Fabricators,
Laborers 47.28 16,313 0.79 508 6.50 1,697 8.76 620
Total-All Occupations 100.0 34,503 100.00 64,385 100.00 26,110 100.00 7,078
Source: LIRPB based on data from U.S. Bureau of Labor statistics, L.I. Data
Occupation
Table 10
Occupations of Employed Persons in the Labor Force, 1980 - Target Area
- TOWN -
Oyster Bay Babylon Brookhaven Huntington Islip Smithtown
15.94 21,050
2.71 3,577
2.56 3,378
12.84 16,961
32.27 42,627
10.70 14,130
0.74 975
7.75 10,240
14.49 19,138
100.00 132,076
To~I
Number Percent
Executive, Administrative,
Managerial 22,117 8,404
Professional Specialty 22,224 8,754
Technical 3,808 2,430
Marketing & Sales 19,232 8,259
Administrative Support,
including Clerical 32~227 18,783
Service 16,053 12,185
Farming, Forestry, Fishing 1,075 801
Precision Production, Craft, Repair 16,558 14,133
Operators, Fabricators, Laborers 14,731 17,152
Total - All Occupations 148,025 90,901
Source: LIRPB based on data from U.S. Bureau of the Census,1980
14,577 15,077 12,212 7,134
21,856 18,091 13,946 8,413
5,395 2,744 3,435 1,522
15,588 11,849 11,532 6,262
25,344 15,950 23,925 9,368
19,371 9,088 17,793 6,854
1,787 1,026 1,376 365
19,146 9,529 18,598 5,634
19,118 7,928 21,650 4,718
142,182 91,282 124,467 50,270
79,521 12.29
93,284 14.42
19,334 2.99
72,722 11.24
125,597 19.41
81,344 12.57
6,430 0.99
83,598 12.92
85,297 13.17
647,127 100,00
8
Occupation
Table 11
Projected Employment and Labor Force Growth,
by Occupation in the Target Area, 1985-2000
Employment Growth
Number Percent
Labor Force Growth
Number Percent
Surplus (+) or
Deficit (-) Labor
Supply
Source:
Executive, Administrative, Managerial 21,050
Professional Specialty 3,577
Technical 3,378
Marketing & Sales 16,961
Administrative Support, Including Clerical 42,627
Service 14,130
Farming, Forestry & Fishing 975
Precision Production., Craft & Repair 10,240
Operators, Fabricators, Laborers 19,138
Total - All Occupations 132,070
Long Island Regional Planning Board
15.94
2.71
2.56
12.84
32.27
10.70
0.74
7.75
14.49
100.00
24,870 18.20
27,904 20.42
5,534 4.05
15,O32 11.00
22,547 16.50
13,665 10.00
1,352 0.99
14,813 10.84
10,933 8.00
136,650 100.00
+3,820
+24,327
+2,156
-1,929
-20,080
-465
+377
+4,573
-8,205
+4,574
PROJECTED LABOR FORCE
in TRANSIT ACCESSIBLE AREAS
Table 14 shows the projected labor force in those areas in
Brooklyn and Queens and western Nassau that are within a half
mile of the rP!lroad stations.
There is expected to be a 32,000 increase in the labor force in
these station-accessible areas by the year 2000. The maximum
number of people in various occupations are shown on Table 15.
The result of these projections shows over 62,000 administrat-
ive support positions and over 24,000 operatives could be avail-
able. These are two of the areas where deficits are anticipated
in the study area. It is anticipated that in the future there will be
decreasing demand for lower level technical, sales and adminis-
trative support workers in the New York City boroughs and in-
creased demand for the same in the back offices that are and
will be locating in the Long Island Region.
New York City demand for industrial workers (operatives) will
be almost nonexistent as New York City industrial space is con-
verted to more lucrative uses. Long Island will bo an alternative
workplace for these displaced industrial employees. This
scenario is plausible if Long Island employers are compelled,
due to employee shortages, to increase salaries to offset the
cost of commutation and inconvenience. The railroad would
the ~ become a commutation resource for these workers, espe-
cially for those employees without automobiles.
Table 12
Employed Persons Residing Within One-Half Mile of Long Island Railroad Stations in Brooklyn, Queens and Nassau, 1980
by Occupation (1)
- OCCUPATIONS -
Technical,
Managerial, Sales, Operators,
Professional Administrative Precision Fabricators,
Total Specialty Support Service Crafts Laborers
Brooklyn Stations
Atlantic Ave. 9,707 2,840 3,270 1,503 633 1,461
East New York 4,505 440 1,529 1,022 390 1,115
Nostrand Ave. 11,598 1,246 4,061 2,753 1,011 2,469
County Total 25,810 4,526 8,880 5,278 2,034 5,045
Queens Stations
Belierose (Queens Pop.)(3) 3,882 773 1,592 519 567 419
Forest Hills 15,585 7,023 5,946 1,105 805 692
Hollis (3) 8,702 1,547 3,273 1,564 836 1,415
Hunters Point Ave.(2) 2,045 234 705 333 248 525
Jamaica 8,839 1,204 2,754 1,614 896 2,316
Kew Gardens 12,168 4,339 5,024 1,111 837 824
Queens Village (3) 5,007 1,018 1,915 645 578 802
Woodside 13,983 3,077 5,199 2,241 1,421 2,032
County Total 70,211 19,215 26,408 9,132 6,188 9,025
Nassau Stations
Belierose (Nassau Pop.)(3) 3,779 1,086 1,476 465 428 324
Carie Place 4,085 984 1,563 561 486 464
Floral Park 5,128 1,271 2,133 634 547 525
Merrilon Ave. 6,626 2,521 2,611 497 498 444
Mineola 3,832 996 1,332 386 500 569
New Hyde Park 5,685 1,392 2,195 610 760 688
Westbury 6,699 2,211 2,395 608 612 753
County Total 35,834 10,461 13,705 3,761 3,831 3,767
Grand Total 131,855 34,202 48,973 18,171 12,053 17,837
(1) Does not add to total because agricultural occupations have been omitted.
(2) No eastbound service at present time however if service was available the above no. of persons would be within walking distance.
(3) Stations on Hempstead Branch which makes it difficult to travel to Main Line Stations. A shuttle bus to Floral Park could accomodate some of
these potential workers.
Soume: U.S. Bureau of the 1980 Census & LIRPB allocation of Census Tract data.
10
Table 13
Employed Persons Residing Within One-Half Mile of Subways
Connecting to the Long Island Railroad Stations in Brooklyn & Queens, 1980
By Occupation*
Walking Distance of Total
Technical,
Managerial, Sales,
Professional Administrative
Specialty Support
Precision
Service Crafts
Operators,
Fabricators,
Laborers
Brooklyn Subways 420,709 83,525 154,492 63,168
Queens Subways 98,593 23,055 39,695 12,890
Total 519,302 106,580 194,187 76,058
*Does not add to total because agricultural occupations have been omitted.
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census,1980. Census tract allocation by LIRPB.
39,980
8,890
48,870
78,409
13,897
92,306
Table 14
Projected Labor Force in Catchment Areas Within Walking
Distance of Brooklyn, Queens and Western Nassau LIRR Stations
Walking Distance of
Percent in
1980 Projected 2000 Labor Force
Population Population 1980 2000
1980 Projected
Labor 2000
Force Labor Force
Brooklyn Stations 73,857 79,839 34.9 48.0 25,810 38,323
Queens Stations 157,778 165,511 44.5 51.0 70,211 84,410
Nassau Stations 82,024 82,762 43.7 50.0 35,834 41,381
Total 313,659 328,112 131,855 164,114
Source: LIRPB
11
Table 15
Projected Number of Persons Within Selected Occupational
Groups Residing Within Walking Distance of Brooklyn,
Queens and Western Nassau LIRR Stations, Year 2000
Technical, Sales Operators,
and Administrative Fabricators
Walking Distance of Support Workers & Laborers
Brooklyn Stations 13,156 7,492
Queens Stations 34,006 12,635
Nassau Stations 15,828 4,349
Total 62,990 24,476
Source: LIRPB
EMPLOYER SURVEY
A mail survey was conducted in the study area during the
summer of 1988. Two-thousand five-hundred firms were
surveyed and an overall response of 18% was received.
The responses were separated into firms that employ more
than 100 and less than 100 to assure that the larger employers
were represented in the survey. Nine separate zip code areas
with over 100 firms were surveyed and the list includes
Farmingdale, Hauppauge, Hicksville, Deer Park, Ronkonkoma,
Plainview, Melville, Bohemia and Commack. The survey
showed that manufacturing firms such as those involved with
fabrics and stone, glass and concrete products currently have a
25% vacancy rate in positions, while personal services and
business services have job availability rates at half the above
level. Two-thirds of the firms surveyed have some hiring
problems.
Table 16 shows the occupations for which companies have ex-
perienced o~ expect to experience hiring problems.
The survey found that of all the firms responding, over 1,000
jobs were to be added within the next year, while approximately
500 expected losses for 2% gain overall. In the next two to five
years, the next gain is expected to be 9%.
The employers were asked questions about parking, skills train-
ing and present use of various transportation facilities. Parking
is a small problem since firms tend to have adequate parking
for existing and planned employees. Almost half of the firms
responding have some type of skills training. The question of
use of the Long Island Railroad found only four firms with a
total of over 500 employees who have a shuttle service to the
Long Island Railroad. Three additional firms with approximately
500 employees plan to implement such service. Overall, 84%
do not use the railroad, nor do they have any plans to rely on
the railroad for future job opportunities.
OPPORTUNITIES for RAILROAD USE
The study did show that 58 firms with almost 3,000 employees
that responded to the questionnaire indicate that they are within
walking distance of a Long Island Railroad station. This propor-
tion of firms in the entire study area represent one of the best
opportunities for future marketing of Long Island Railroad
services since the overall demand for employees and specified
industries is expected to continue and will not be served by the
labor force in the immediate area.
The recruitment problems expected in the next year and in two
to five years are summarized in Table 17.
In the next year, shipping and receiving clerks, machine opera-
tors and machinists are high on the required list. In the next two
to five years, machine operators again show up, along with
clerk typists.
12
Oct.
Number
Table 16
Number of Companies Indicating Hiring Problems by Occupation and
Number of Average Number of Positions Needed Within One Year and Within 2-5 Years
--COMPANIES THAT AI~ISWERED THE QUESTIONS--
No. of -Recruitment Problems Within I Year- I -Recruitment Problems Within 2-5 Years-
Companies
W/Hiring No. of Needed Average No. No. of Needed Average No.
Occupation Name Problems Companies Employers Pos. Needed Companies Employers Pos. Needed
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
2O
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
Q14-29
Q14-30
Q14-31
Q14-32
Q14-33
Auto/Truck Body Repairer 11
Auto/Truck Mechanic 24
Bus Driver 2
Bookeeper 23
Carpenter 5
Cashier 7
Clerk-Typist 42
Cook 3
Electrical Assembler 26
Electrician 9
Electronics Technician 20
Engineer 7
Inspector 18
Machine Operator 33
Machinist 29
Maintenance Mechanic 23
Mechanical Assembler 16
Plumber 1
Receptionist 22
Sales Clerk 18
Sales Rep-Agent 34
Secretary/Stenographer 24
Sheet Metal Mechanic 12
Ship-Rec Clerk 37
Small Engine Mechanic 3
Solderer-Wirer 11
Truck Driver 23
Welder 11
Other Specified OCCS 117
Other Specified OCCS 37
Other Specified OCCS 13
Other Specified OCCS 6
Other Specified OCCS 2
TOTAL 669
3 3 1.00
15 34 2.27
0 0 0.00
15 29 1.93
3 17 5.67
5 31 6.20
19 37 1,95
1 20 20.00
12 26 2.17
4 7 1.75
8 18 2.25
4 5 1.25
10 23 2.30
19 58 3.O5
18 60 3.33
14 39 2.79
11 24 2.18
1 I 1.00
13 30 2.31
10 52 5.20
17 31 1.82
12 37 3.08
10 21 2.10
21 41 1.95
2 3 1.50
4 12 3.00
12 40 3.33
8 27 3.38
32 67 2.09
8 23 2.88
3 4 1.33
2 3 1.50
0 0 0.00
316 823 2.60
4 14 3.50
16 61 3.81
0 0 0.00
11 41 3.73
2 28 14.00
2 15 7.50
18 69 3.83
0 0 0.00
10 52 5.20
3 14 4.67
7 45 6.43
3 8 2.67
7 48 6.86
16 144 9.00
14 128 9.14
6 39 6.50
5 27 5.40
0 0 0.00
10 48 4.80
11 113 10.27
19 57 3.00
8 26 3.25
7 27 3.86
20 128 6.40
2 13 6.50
6 29 4.83
10 58 5.80
6 19 3.17
31 119 3.84
8 42 5.25
6 15 2.50
4 11 2.75
0 0 0.00
272 1438 5.29
13
Table 17
The Five Occupations With Anticipated Recruitment Problems Within the Next Year and Within the Next Two to Five Years
Ranked by Highest Number of Firms With Recruitment Needs and
Highest Number of Employees Needed
# of # Needed # of # Needed
Rank Companies Occupation Employees I Rank Companies Occupation Employees
Occupations With Anticipated Recruitment Problems Within O
1 21 Ship/Rec Clerk 41
2 19 Clerk-Typist 37
3 19 Machine Operator 58
4 18 Machinist 60
5 17 Sales Rep/Agent 31
Occupations With Anticipated Recruitment Problems Within T
1 20 Ship/Rec Clerk 128
2 19 Sales Rep/Agent 57
3 18 Clerk-Typist 69
4 16 Auto/Truck Mech 61
5 16 Machine Operator 144
le Year
1 18 Machinist 60
2 19 Machine Operator 58
3 10 Sales Clerk 52
4 21 Ship/Rec Clerk 41
5 12 Truck Driver 40
vo to Five Years
1 16 Machine Operator 144
2 20 Ship/Rec Clerk 128
3 14 Machinist 128
4 11 Sales Clerk 113
5 18 Clerk-Typist 69
Table 18 contains the range of salaries offered by employers
for occupations for which they anticipate the greatest hiring
problems. The width of the hourly wage range is large because
the Iow end of the proposed wage is offered for employees
needed within one year while the top of the wage range is a
projected future wage to be paid within the two to five year time
frame.
(1) Range of hourly wages is a summary of employer survey information.
Hourly wage data is not specified to time frame of openings therefore salary
ranges are for a time frame that ranges from one to five years.
Source: Employer Survey, Summer 1988
14
Table 18
Approximate Hourly Wage for Openings for Occupations
With Anticipated Recruitment Problems
Occupation
Range of Wages
For Openings(I)
Shipping/Receiving Clerk
Clerk-Typist
Machine Operator
Machinist
Sales Rep/Agent
Sales Clerk
Auto/Truck Mechanic
$4.00-13.50
$4.00-12.00
$4.00-13.50
$4.00-13.50
$5.00-16.00
$4.00-12.00
$6.00-15.00
COORDINATION of TRANSPORTATION
SERVICES
Even though the conclusions of the mail survey have indicated
that most employers do not see an immediate connection
between railroad services and the ability of employees to use
such services, it can be pointed out where the Nassau and Suf-
folk bus systems presently serve railroad stations and employ-
ment areas and where they could be modified in the future if
railroad service is increased in the reverse direction. It is imper-
ative that Nassau and Suffolk mass transit coordinate with the
Long Island Rail Road schedule if reverse commutation is to
become a viable transpodation resource.
The Hicksville station is well served by the Metropolitan
Suburban Bus Authority routes in Nassau County. Service to
the employment areas in New Cassel, Plainview, Woodbury
and Bethpage, in addition to Hicksville, are available on a
number of routes. The areas that are not served include
Jericho, Syosset and part of Woodbury. Route N79, which runs
from Mineola to South Huntington with a stop at the Hicksville
station, goes right past most of the industrial areas in New
Cassel, Plainview and Woodbury. Routes N22 from Hicksville to
Jamaica and N48 from Hicksville to Hempstead serve much of
the nearby Hicksville industrial area, while Route N80 from
Hicksville to Massapequa serves the large industrial complex
that lies between Hicksville and Bethpage. Extension of a route
like N79 could pick up the areas that have large amounts of
office and industrial employment to the north and east of
Hicksville.
The Bethpage station has a connection to Route N81 which
goes from Hicksville to Massapequa and provides access to a
main portion of the industries that are in Bethpage. The
Farmingdale station has Route N72 from Hempstead to
Babylon which provides access to a large amount of the East
Farmingdale industrial complex. Route N70 from Hempstead to
the State University in Farmingdale could serve the remainder
of East Farmingdale with a stop at the aforementioned railroad
station. Either route could be expanded to serve more of
Melville with a system that would loop back to the Farmingdale
station. An alternative could be to have the S1 Route extended
across the Suffolk County line into Nassau County to serve the
Farmingdale station.
The other Suffolk County routes that provide connections to
railroad stations are as follows. In Wyandanch, Route S31 from
Copiague to Melville provides some access to the industries in
the immediate Wyandanch area. Route S27 from West Babylon
to Hauppauge serves part of the industrial concentrations in
Deer Park, Brentwood and Hauppauge. These routes were rec-
ently changed to reflect the new location of the Deer Park sta-
tion. Some further modification could provide improved access
to the area between Wyandanch and Deer Park which has had
increases in employment.
The Brentwood station is served by Route S41 from Commack
to Bay Shore. This route provides access to the remainder of
the Brentwood job center and the Hauppauge industrial area.
The Central Islip station is served by Route S42 from Babylon
to Central Islip and S45 and 3C which go between Bay Shore
and Lake Grove. These routes provide access to some of the
industrial locations in Brentwood, Hauppauge, and Islandia.
15
Some additional service will be needed, especially to Islandia,
which is developing as one of the major employment centers in
this part of the central Long Island area.
The Ronkonkoma station has Route S57 from Sayville to Lake
Grove, a route which traverses part of the Bohemia and Lake
Ronkonkoma areas. Route S59 from Sayville to Lake Grove
connects between the Ronkonkoma station and the employ-
ment area in Holbrook. In the future, the Holbrook and Holtsville
areas are expected to have a significant amount of employment
and will need a tie directly between the Ronkonkoma station
and the job centers near the Expressway.
CONCLUSIONS
The study has clearly shown that there is land available in the
central corridor area that is likely to be developed or redeve-
loped in the near future. The labor force in the nearby area has
not been growing as fast as new jobs have been created and
some of the fastest growing industries aro expected to encoun-
ter labor shortages.
Most industries haven't associated the difficulty of recruiting
workers with any problems in the transportation network. The
assumption is if there is adequate parking, workers will find a
way to the site. This is not true for all classes of workers and
the survey in.the portion of New York City shows that certain in-
dustrial and office workers living near transportation services
could be attracted to Long Island especially as their jobs are
phased out in New York City.
Manufacturers and back room offices for major corporations are
relocating to less expensive areas such as Long Island. The
employers would have to offer salaries that would compensate
for the time and cost of the railroad trip to entice these workers
to Long Island.
The Long Island economy has unique features which will en-
able it to maintain its strength and therefore recruit labor. The
economy's strength is based upon the region's high calibur in-
dustries, industries with strong ties to this area and specialized
product manufacturers.
Industries with strong ties to this area have a high quality labor
force and are most likely to encourage supplementary labor to
commute to Long Island. This commutation will be enticed by
offering compensation or special transportation to and from
railroad stations. An example of an industry with strong ties to
Long Island is Grumman, which even though it has reduced its
manufacturing work fome, still retains a number of high level
employees in administration, policy areas, and technical design.
Other high calibur industries remain here because of the train-
ing level of the work fome and the desirability of our living en-
vironment. And finally, manufacturers and distributors of speci-
alized products remain in the area because of L.I. consumers
and their high level of disposable income.
The aging of the Long Island labor force, which is related to the
massive migration to the area in the 1950%, means a much
higher retiree proportion of the population. The lack of affor-
dable housing for the young is a problem that will not be
alleviated in the near future. This, too, is a constraint on labor
force growth in the area. Therefore, the importation of certain
types of workers is likely to be an option for more and more
companies that are directly related to this region.
16
The previously mentioned companies that are within walking
distance of study area stations offer the best opportunities for
off-peak use. This is where marketing efforts should be utilized
to sell the 20,000 seats currently available for reverse commut-
ation. As the maps show, the amount of available or reusable
land is significant on the land surrounding the Deer Park and
Ronkonkoma stations so the overall number of jobs within walk-
ing distance may increase.
The typical wage rates do not indicate that a large number of
employees would be willing to spend over $100 per month to
purchase a railroad ticket. A much higher demand for labor
force beyond the five year employer survey period could result
in higher wage rates. A desire to fill excess capacity on the
could result in a different fare structure to attract workers.
At the time decisions are made to construct a third track on the
main line, the creation of new offices and industrial buildings in
the study area should be reaching a peak. This is expected in
the next decade and this is the time when the reverse peak
usage is most likely to be needed. Later, non-residential growth
on Long Island, is expected beyond the study area in Yaphank
and possibly Riverhead. Reverse commutation to these areas
from New York City is not feasible, so any marketing should be
concentrated in the study area.
APPENDIX
Map 1. Overall Map Showing Detailed Study Areas.
Map 2. Uelville-E. Farmingdale (110 Corridor) Study Area.
Map 3. Bohemia-Ronkonkoma (Islip-MacArthur Airport) Study Area.
Map 4. Deer Park Study Area.
Sample of survey questionnaire mailed to employers.
17
- L E G END ~
Major Employmenl Centers
Municipal Boundary
L.I,R.R. Station
Study Area
GENERAL ~AP OF
TARGET AREA
-LEGEND-
Existing 0ommercial
I
~ Existing ndustr~al
Vacant
Reuse
d
~lap 2..
~ELV)LLE-~. FAR~)NGDALE
STUDY AREA
-LEGEND-
Existing Commercial
~ Existing Industrial
Vacant
Reuse
Map 3.
-LEGEND-
Existing Commercial
~ Existing industrial
Vacant
Reuse
Map 4..
BEER PARK
o ]ooo 2o~00
LONG ISLAND REGIONAL PLANNING BOARD
METROPOLITAN TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY
LONG IS~VO R~L ROAr
..CONFIDENTIAL EMPLOYER SURVEY..
Please include information for facilities that are located in Nassau and Suffolk
Counties ONLY.
1. Approximately how many full-time positions do you have? ........
2. How many ofthese full-time positions are vacant? ...................... --
3. Approximately what percent of your full-time employees come from:
a. Nassau County c. New York City
b Suffolk County d Other
4. Approximately how many part-time positions do you have? ....... --
5. How many of these part-time positions are vacant? ....................
6. Approximately what percent &your part-time employees come from:
a Nassau County c New York City
b. Suffolk County d Other
7. During the next year, do you ~plan on increasing, decreasing, or
maintaining current work force levels? (If you select either increasing or
decreasing, please indicate the approximate number of positions.)
a. [] Increasing ............................................... d. How many?___
b. []Decreasing .............................................. e. Howmany?
c. [] Maintaining current levels
8. During the next two tu five years, do you plan on increasing, decreasing,
or maintaining current work force levels? ( If you select either increasing
or decreasing, please indicate the approximate number of positions.)
a. []Increasing ............................................... d. How many?.
b. []Decreasing .............................................. e. How many?___
c. [] Maintaining current levels
9. Does your company offer sufficient on-site parking for current and
future employees?
a. [] Yes, on-site parking is sufficient for both current and future
employees.
b. [] Yes, parking is sufficient for current employees, but not for
future employees.
c. [] No, parking is neither sufficient for current nor future
employees.
10.Do you anticipate having any problems hiring qualified personnel to fill
vacant positions during the next year? During the next two to five years?
(Please check all that apply)
Yes, in the next year a.
Yes, in the next 2-5 years c.
No, in the next year e.
No, in the next 2-5 years g.
Skilled Unskilled
[] b .[]
[] d. []
[] f .[]
[] h. []
11.What are your company's plans for training unskilled personnel to fill
vacant positions?
a. [] Our company currently uses skills training to fill vacant
positions.
b. [] Ourcompanyisplanningtoimplementaskil]strainingprogram
within the next year.
c. [] Ourcompanyhasnocurrentplanstoimplementaskillstraining
program.
12.What are your company's plans regarding shuttle service between the
LIRR and your work site? (Please select one item only.)
a. [] Our company currently provides a shuttle service to the LIRR.
Which station?
b. [] Our company is planning to implement a shuttle service to the
LIRR in the next year.
Which station?
c. [] Our company does not need to provide a shuttle service because
we are within walking distance of a LIRR station.
Which station?
d. [] Our company has no current plans to implement a shuttle
service to the LIRR.
e. [] OurcompanyhasneverthoughtaboutusingtheLIRRtogetour
employees to and from their work sites.
13.Recognizing that there are currently trax laws permitting employers to
subsidize up to $15 per month for public transportation commutation
costs, what are your company's plans in this area?
a. [] Our company currently provides monthly public transportation
subsidies.
b. [] Our company is planning to implement a subsidy program
within the next year.
c. [] Our company has no current plans to implement a subsidy
program.
2
Sample copy of questionnaire mailed to employers .....
14. Please complete this table if you anticipate having a problem hiring
qualified personnel within the next year and/or the next five years.
Check for Hiring Approximate
Problems No. of Employees Approximate
Hourly Wage
Needed
Occupation
1. Auto/Truck Bod
2. Autofl~uck Mechanic
3. Bus Driver
4. Bookkeeper
5. Carpenter
6. Cashier
7. Clerk-typist
8. Cook
9. Electrical Assembler
10. Electrician
11. Electronics Technician
13. Inspector
14. Machine Operator
15. Machinist
16. Maintenance Mechanic
17. Mechanical Assembler
18. Plumber
19. Receptionist
20. Sales Clerk
23. Sheet Metal Mechanic
24. Sh
25, Small Engine Mechanic
26. Solderer-Wirer
27. Truck Driver
28. Welder
Other (Please List)
29.
30.
31.
32.
33.
15. Person completing questionnaire: (In case follow-up is required)
NAME PHONE
PLEASE RETURN THIS QUESTIONNAIRE BY REFOLDING AND
STAPLING WITH THE RETURN ADDRESS TO THE OUTSIDE. NO
POSTAGE IS NECESSARY IF MAILED IN THE UNITED STATES.
~rTHANK YOU FOR YOUR ASSISTANCE'~
Edward Cook
Chaionan
John I. Hart
Vice Ch#irman
Patrick F. Caputo
Paul I. Fitzpatrick
John Wickham
lohn W. Wydler
Lee E. Koppelraan
July 20, 1988
Dear Employer:
A few weeks ago a questionnaire was mailed to you regarding a study being
conducted by the Long Island Regional Planning Board, in conjunction with
the Metropolitan Transportation Authority and the Long Island Rail Road.
The purpose of this study is twofold: 1) To examine current and future
employer needs within this rapidly growing business and industrial corridor;
and 2) To determine if public transportation, specifically the Long Island
Rail Road, is a viable alternative for getting employees to and from their job
sites.
Would you please take a few minutes to help us in our study? We would
appreciate if you would complete and return the attached questionnaire. All
responses will be strictly confidential.
If you have any questions regarding this inquiry please contact Mrs. Carol
Walsh of the Long Island Regional Planning Board at (516) 360-5201.
Thank you for your participation in this important study.
(~e~.~.~ry truly yours,
Lee E. Koppelman