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HomeMy WebLinkAboutDevel Rights & Open Space Acq. Projected Cash Flow 2000-2008TOWN OF SOUTHOLD PROJECTED CASH FLOW: DEVELOPMENT RIGHTS & OPEN SPACE LAND ACQUISITIONS 2000-2008 Prepared for the Southold Town Land Preservation Committee Bill Edwards & Ray Huntington May 15, 2003 Page 3 Pages 4-7 Pages 8-9 Page 10 CONTENTS Assumptions 2003-2008 Cash flow forecast based on currently ~ojected closings 2003-2008 Cash flow forecast assuming 2004 closings capped at 250 acres Conclusions and Observations Page 2 of 10 ASSUMPTIONS: Cash Flow Projections 2003-2008 · Total deals for 2004 include 392 acres for which applications are in file plus an estimated 50 acres for applications yet to be received for developmen~ rights (TPDR) closings in the third and fourth quarters. · Annual preservation is projected at 250 acres per year for 2005 and thereafter, of which (175 acres is TPDR + 75 acres open space (TOS). · Ratio of TPDR/TOS acreage is projected at is 70/30, close to the historic ratio. · Based on recent history plus deals on the table, the estimated cost for development rights (TPDR) is projected at $25K per acre starting first quarter 2004. Estimated purchase cost of open space (TOS) is projected at $39K per acre as of first quarter 2004. · Land acquisition costs are projected to grew by 6% annually. · Expenses for program and land stewardship projected to grow at 4% per year, adjusted annually. · Cash available as of 1/1/2003 includes $6 million in unissued bonds and $5.771M in unspent 2% money. · No grants assumed other than those already secured for 2003. · Assumptions do not anticipate the effect of any alternative preservation techniques such as the establishment of a Rural Incentive District (RID), Transfer of Development Rights (TDR) Program, Conservation Opportunity Subdivision (COS), Density Reduction Incentives or up-zoning · Pages 8-9 represent an alternative forecast for the years 2005-2008 if closings for 2004 are capped at 250 acres at the present forecast cost per acre. Page 3 of 10 Cash Flow Forecast for PDR & Open Space as of 05/18/2003 Page 4 of 10 I Property Identification Total Year 2000 Closings Total Year 2001 Closings - Total Year 2002 Closings Status Closed Closed Closed ;Expected Preserved i Price/ J Closing Acres i Acre i t07,93 i 510,8t0 [ 284.87 $9,953 $1,472.8 $543.0 '-' 115.94 -! $21,549 $60.0 $1,547.4 Acquisition ExPense by Qua~er($t000's): Total 1 2 3 4 Year $310.~ __~256.0 $199.9 $-4~0.~. _. $1,166.7 $819.5 $2,835.3 $-891.0 $2,49-8~-- Dickerson (88-1-10) 1 (Completed) Posillico (53;1-7) _ __ 2 (Under Contract) 134 2 (Under Contract) 109. 2 (Und~er Contract) 135 3 (_T0_w_n offer acc~epted) 136 2 (Under Contract) 113 _._ 3 (T~wn offer ac_cep~ed 111 [see #113] 3 (Town offer accepted) 130 3 (Town offer accepte~l) 106 5 (Under A_pp_raisal) 124 _ 3 (Town offer accepted) 128 2003-1 10.15 ~ $20,996 26~3-2 5,80 1:$13,103 2003-2 25.16 ! ~1,000 2003-2 2.30 $5,000 2003-3 25.0~ I $25_,0~? 2003-4 10.00 i $27,000 2003-4 24,50 I $14,163 2003-4 3.40 I 2003-4 32.00 I .... ! $26,0~ 2003-4 6.60 i $37,424 2003-4 - 10.50 f ~ $24,500 137 126 129 132 101 3 (Town offer accepted) Subtotals: . Grants: = TOTALS ~Cashflow ~Beginning Cash On Hand: Proiectiqq I + Income from 2%: for I - Total Spent for Acqu s tions- 2003: i - Other Expenses: i = Ending Cash on Hand i NB: Ending Balance 2% Funds Only. Ending Balance-Authorized Bonds: _3 {~'??n offer a_ccepted) _ 2003-4 !0.00 _ .$30,000 3 (Town offer accepted) 20_03T4~ 12-:0? $60,000 3 (Town offer accepted) 2003-4 5.00 $34,500 3 (Town offer accepted) 2003-4 2~:~0~ $_2_4,500 3 (Town_?ffer accepted 20_0~-~ 9.0(~ . __ $2_3 500 2003-4 7.90 $24,500 224,3 I. 224,3 ~ I Average: $22,604 I ~ 213 76 528 12 $213 $616 ($249) $2t3 $367 $t1,771 $-~2,376 $900 $900 $2t3 $367 $83 $83 $12,376 $12,826 $6,376 $6,9f4 $6,~o $~gf3 213 76 528 12 625 625 270 270 347 347 832 832 247 247 257 257 300 300 720 720 613 613 212 212 194 194 $625 $4,163 . $5,617 ($298) ($-.5~}_ $327 $4,163 S5,070 $12,826 .$-t3,3t7 $tt,771 $900 $900 $3,600 $327 $~,163 $5,07~ $83 $83 $330 $13,317 $9,971 $9,971 $7,404 $5,395 $~9f3 $4,576 *** Application received but deal closing considered unlikely, Cash Flow Forecast for PDR & Open Space as of 05/18/2003 Page 5 of 10 Property Identification I Status !Expected Preserved I Price/ Acquisiti°n Expense by Quarter ($1000's): I T°talICIosing ! Acres Acre 1 2 I '3' I 4 Year 112~ ($300K for 7.3 acres)*** 4 (Offer made) . 2004-1_ 102 5 (Under Appraisal) 2004-1 7.40 122 _ 4 (Offer~made) _._ 2004-1 2.87 110 4 (Offer made) 2004-1 7.70 103 5 (Under Appraisal) 2004-1 47.31 108 4 (Offer made) 2004-1 3.51 125 _ __ 4 (offer made) 2004-1 15.00 118 3 (Town offer accepted) 2004-2 21.70 114 ($592K for t5 acres)*~* 6.(Applicati~o_n.i~1; dea~ uncedain) 2004-2 105 _. 3 (To_wn offer accept~ed! 2004-2 21.40 120 6 (Application in; deal un_certain) 2004-2 65.00 115 5 (Under Appraisal) 2004-2 28.60 133 _ . 6 (Application in; deal unce~ain) 2004-2' ..32.50 117 6 (Application in; d~eal uncertain) 2004-2 22.80 1_19 6 (Application in; deal uncerta_i~n)_ 2004-2 16.93 127 6 (Application in; deal uncertain) 2004-2 44.00 104 5 (Un_der Ap~pr~isal) 2004-2 38.20 131 5 (Under Appraisal) 2004-2 32.00 11~6_ 5 (Under Appraisal) 2004-2 33.00 [Closings 2004-3: New applications] 7 (Applications TK) 2004-3 25.00 12~! _ 5 (_Under A_ppraisal) _.j 2004-4 25.10 [Closings 2004-4: New applications] 3 (Town offer accepted) I 2003-4~.90 Subtotals: i 392.43 Grants: = TOTALS I 392.43 Average: Cashflow Seginnirtg Cash On Hand: Proiecfion +_In_come from 2%: four ; Total SPent for Acquisitions: 2004: $20,00~ 148 _ _ ~48 $13,9~2 40 ..... 40 $45,455 350 350 $2~i~37 1,000 ....... 1,000 $2,849 10 10 $21,618 368 368 $18,~4 532 532 $22,164 $18,610 $24,231 $18,51_o $18,136 $16,0~2 $16,484 $22,251 $ 5, oo $23,158 $25,750 $21,5~3 $24,500 - Other Expenses! = Ending Cash on Hand !NB: Ending Balance 2% Funds Only: Balanc~-A~thorized BonSai 621 621 _ ~ 1,500 1,500 915 915 784 784 559 559 415 415 900 900 850 850 1,440 1,440 1,056 1,056 644 644 690 690 653 653 1,916 9,571 644 1,343 $13,474 $1~916 $9,571 $644 . _$~343 $13,474 $34,335 $9,97t $8,926 $224 $451 $9,971 $954 $954 $954 $954 $3,816 $I~9t6 $9,571 $644 $1,343 $13,474 $84 $84 $84 $84 $335 $8,926 $224 $451 ($22) ($22) $1,418 $1,645 $1,172 ($t, 19~ ($~,~9~ ($t, 194) *** Application received but deal closing considered unlikely. Cash Flow Forecast for PDR & Open Space as of 05/18/2003 ' I i Property Identification Status ?!?sings 2005-1 Closings 2005-1_ _ CIosin~s~005-2 Closings 200572 Closings 2005-3 Cl_o~sings 2005-3 Closings 2005-4 Closings 2005-4 (Appli_cations TK) (Applications T_K)_ (Ap pli_c_a_t ? ns TK) (Applications_T_K) (App!ic?ions TK) (Applica~tions TK) (~pplications TK) (Applications TK) TOTALS: Cashflow ' Beginning C~ash On Hand: Projection i~ Income from 2%: four i' Total Spent for Acquisitions: 2005: [-O_th?Expenses: I = Ending Cash on Hand [ NB: Ending Balance 2% ~u~ds Only: .Ending Balance-Authodzed Bands: Expected Preserved Price/ ~A~quis ~i0? _E~?~nse by Quarter ($t000's): Closing Acres Acre I 2 3 4 2005-1 62.50 .___26,500 1,159 2005-1 41,340 775 2005-2 62.50 26,900 _1,17~7 ! 1,177 2005-2 42,000 788 i 788 2005-3 62.50 - .27,300 1,194 1,194 2005-3 4_2_,600 799 799 2005-4 62.50 27,700 1,212 1,212 2005-4 43,200 810 810 250.00 $1,_938 $1,964 $1,993 $2,022 $7,914 Average: $31.656 Cashflow Proiection fo__r 2006: Closings 2006-1 Closings 2006-1 Closing_s 2006-2 CI0s!ngs 2006-2 ~10si~g? 2006-3 Closings 2006-3 C_losings 2006-4 Closings 2006-4 TOTALS: (Applications TK) (Applica~!0ns TK) (Applications TK) (Applications (Applications T~? (Applications TK) (Applica!i.?ns TK) (Applications TK) Page 6 of 10 Year 1,159 775 B~ginni~g Cash On Hand: + Income from 2%: - Total Spent fo~ ~cquisitions: - Other ~E~penses: = Ending Cash on Hand /VB: Ending Balance 2%_F_un_ds On/y: E~din~ Balance-Authorized Bounds: ($22) ($1,030) ($2,069) ($3,1_35) ($22) ._ $1,011 I $1,0tl $1,011 $1,011 $4,045 '- $1,935 ~ $~,964 $t,993 ~2,022 $7,914 ($1,030) ($2,069) ($3,13~[ i$4:231) ($4,231) ($1,969) ($2,756) ($3,555) ~ ($~36~ 2006-1 62.50 28,t00 1,229 1,229 2006-1 43,800 821 821 _~06-2 62.50 2~,5Q0 ' 1,247 1,247 2006-2 44,500 834 834 2006-3 62.50 28,900 1,264 1,264 2006-3 45,200 848 848 2006-4 _ 62.50 28,900 1,286 1,286 2006-4 45,800 859 859 . 250.00 $2,~5~ _ __ $~,08t $2,t t2 $2,145 $8,389 Average: $33,555 .... ($4,231) .... (~9~ . (~f.~3~ _ (~,5~8)_ _ (~,~31~ $1,07~t ,~2 $1,072 $%072 $4.288 $2,051 $2,081 $2,112 $2,145 $8.389 $86 $86 $86 $86 $345 ($5,296) ($6,392) ($7,5t8) ($8,677) ($8,677) ..... ($~0) (837~) (8650) (8950) ($5,186) ($6,021) ($6,868) ($7~7~)_ *** Application received but deal closing considered unlikely. Cash Flow Forecast for PDR & Open Space as of 05/18/2003 Page 7 of 10 Cashflow Projection for 2007: Prbperty tden'dfication Closir~gs 2007-1 CIosings~2007-1 Closings 2007-2 Closings 20.07;2 Closings 2007-3 Closings 2007-3 Clos!ngs 2007-4 Closings 2007-4 TOTALS: Beginning Cash On Hand: + income from 2"/.: - Total Spent ~0r ~Acquisltions: - Other Expenses~: = Ending Cash on Hand NB: Ending Balance 2% Funds Only: Ending~B~l_ance-Authorized Bonds: Status 7 (Applications ~TK _ 7~ (Ap_plications _T.K 7 (Applications TK 7 (A~plications TK 7 (Applications TK 7 (Ap~pl!cations TK 7 (Applications TK 7 (Applications TK _Closings 2008-1 Closings 2008-1 Closings 2008-2~ Closings 2008-2 Closings 2008-~ Closings 200_8-3 Closin~ 20~08~, Closings 2008-4 7 (,~pplications TK 7 (Applications _T. ~K _. 7 (Appiicatio?s~TK ..... 7 (Applic?ions TK 7 (Appli_c_a_t!~ns TK 7 (Appl!?ations TK __ 7 (Appl_ications T_~ .... 7 (Applications TK TOTALB: Cashfiow Beginni?g Cash On Hand: Projection + Income from 2%: four L' Total Spent fo~ Acquisitions: 2008; ~ Other Expenses: ~1= En~i;,g~e~h on Ha.d ~ NB: Ending Balance 2% Funds Only: I Ending Balance-Authorized Bonds: IExpected Preserved I Price/ Closing l Acres I Acre 2007-1 62.50 29,800 2007-1 46,400 2007-2 62.50 30,200 20p~-_~ _47,200 2007-3 62.50 30,600 2007-3 _. 47,900 2007-4 62.50 31,200 2007-4 48,500 250.00 Average: $3~565 2008-1 2008-1 2008-2 2008-2 2008-3 2008-3 2008-4 2008-4 AcquisitionExpense by Quarter ($t000's): I Total Year 870 870 1,321 1,321 885 I 885 1,339 1,339 $2,174 i $2,206 $2,237_ [ $2,274 $8,891 ($8,677) i ($9,802) ($11,024) i ($12,277) ($8,677) $t,138 I $%o72 $1,e72_.!_$_~,0~2- _ $4,352 $2,174 ~ $2,206 $2,237 ~ $2,274 $8,89~ ($9,802) ~ ~$~) ($~2,277 ($13,567) ($13,867) ($1,205) ~ ($1,~2) ($1~897) ~ ($2,277) 62.50 31,600 ~49,200 62.50 32,000 50,000 62.50 32,400 50,8~0 ~62.50 33,100 51,400 250.00 Average: $3~698 1,383 923 1,400 938 1,383 923 ..... ~,~_o.o 938 1,418 1,418 953 953 1,448 1,448 964 964 $~,305 $2,338 $2,370 $2,412 $9,424 ($13,5~7)_._($~4,757) ($15,979) ($17,233) ($13,567) ~%204 $1,204 $1,204 $1,204 $2,305 ; $2,3~_8_ $2z370 $2,412 $9,424 $89 $89 $89 $89 $356 ($14,767) ($t6,979) ($~7,233) ($t8,530) ($18,530) ($2,545) ($2,~29) ($3, t3~ ($3,464) ($12,212) ($t3,149) ($14,102) *** Application received but deal closing considered unlikely. Cash Flow Forecast for PDR & Open Space as of 05/18/2003 I Property Identification ! Status Scenario if 2004 closings are capped at 250 acres ~) current projected costs per acre ($29.6 PDR, $42,0 TOS): Closings 2005- f Closings 2005-1 Closings 2005-2 Closings 2005-2 Closings 2005-3 Closings 2005-3 Closings 2005-4 Closings 2005-4 7 (Applications TK) 7 (Applications TK) 7 (Applications TK) 7 (Applications TK) 7 (Applications TK) 7 (Application~ 7 (Applications TK) 7 (Applications TK) TOTALS: Cashflow Beginning Cash On Hand: Proiection + Income from 2%: ~o£ - Total Spent for Acquisitions: 2005: - Other Expenses: = Ending Cash on Hand NB: Ending Balance 2% Funds Only: Ending Balance-Authorized Bond~ ¢ .. Closings 2006-1 Closings 2006-1 Closin? 2006-2 C_losings 2006-2 Closings 2006-3 Closings 2006-3 Closings 2006-4 Closings 2005-4 7 (Applications TK) 7 (Applications 7 (Applications TK) 7 (A_pplications TK) 7 (Applica8ons_?K) 7 (Applications TK) 7 (Applications TK) 7 (Applications TK) TOTALS: Cashflow Beginning C~S~ O~n Hand: Proiection + Income from 2%: for - Total Spent for Acquisitions: 2006: . Other Expenses: = Ending Cash on Hand NB.* Ending Balance 2% Funds O_nly: Ending Balance-A?hodzed Bonds: Expected Preserved Price/ Closing Acres Acre 2005-1 62.50 26.500 2005-1 41.340 2005-2 62.50 26.900 2005-2 4ZOO0 2005-3 62.50 27.300 2005-3 42. 600 2005-4 62.50 27.700 2005-4 43.200 250.00 Average: $31,656 2006-1 62.50 28.100 2006-I 43.800 2006-2 62.5~ 28.500 2006-2 4~ 500 2006-3 62.50 28.900 2006-3 45.200 2006-4 52.50 28.900 2006-4 45.800 250.00 Average: $3~555 Page 8 of 10 IAcquisition Expense by Quarter ($1000's}: I T°tal I -;~--' ~ 2 3 -~-~ Year 1.159 I 159 775 775 1.177 1.177 788 788 1.194 1.194 799 799 1,212 f.212 810 610 $~,~.35 $1,964 $1,993___$2,022 $~914 $~314 $4,306 $1,935 $1,964 $85 $85 $4,306 $3,288 $3.788 $3.538 $517 ~270) 1.229 821 1.247 834 $~051 $2,081 $3,268 $2,201 $5,3~4 $~,01~ $1,0~1 $4,045 $1,993 $2,022 $7,9~4 $85 $85 $340 $2,201 $1,105 $'1,106 $3.270 $2.984 1,229 821 ~.247 834 1.264 1.264 848 848 1.286 1.286 85g 859 $2,112 $2,145 $8,389 $1,~05 $40 ($1,055) ($2,182) $1.~05 $1,072 $1,072 $~,072 $1.072 $4,288 $2,051 $2,08f $2,112 $2,~45 $8,389 $86 $86 $86 $86 $345 $40 ($f,055) ($2,182) ($3,341) ($3,341) $2.740 §~,_~._ ~2.200 $t.900 ($2,700)_ _ (~$3,534) ~ ($4,382) ($5,241) *** Application received but deal closing considered unlikely. Cash Flow Forecast for PDR & Open Space as of 05/18/2003 I PropertyIdentification IStatus Scenario if 2004 closin~ls are capped at 250 acres (~ current 13roiected costs per acre ($29.6 PDR, $42,0 TOS): _~l~ings 2007-I Closings 2~007-1 Clo$ings_2007-2 Closings 2007-2 cio_sings 2007-3 Closings 2007:~ Closings 2007-4 Closings 2007~4 ? (Applications TK) _ _ .7 (Applications 7 (App/~tipns TK) 7 (Applications TK) 7 (Appl!cations TK) 7 (Applications TK) 7 (Applications TK) TOTALS: Cashflow [ Beginning Cash On Hand: ........... Projection L ++ Income from 2%: four ~ To~ S~ ~t for Acquisitions: __ 2007: i ' Other Expenses: .... ; = Ending Cash on Hand i NB: Ending Balance 2% Fonds Only: ~ En~i;g'Baia~ce-AuthorizedBonds: ?losings2008-1 ..... 7 (Applications T.K_).. Closings 2008-J .... 7 (Applicatio_ns TK) Cl_osi_ngs~ 2~008-2 7 (Ap~plications TK) C{os~ngs 2008-2 ~ ~pplications TK) Closings 2008-3 ~ (Applications TK) Closings 2008~3 _~ (Applications TK) Closings 2008-~ 7 (Applicatioq~ TK) Closings 2008-4 7 (Applications TK) TOTALS: Cashflow Beginning Cash~On~ H_and: P_ro/ection + Income from 2%: for I. Total Spent ~or ~cq~isition~-s; 2008: !: ~;PExpenses: [ Ending Balance-Authorized Bonds: Page 9 of 10 Expected Preserved Price/ Closing Acres Acre 2007-~ 62.50 29.800 2007-1 46.400 2007-2 62.50 30.200 2007-2 47.200 2007-3 62.50 30.600 2007-3 47.900 2007~4 62.50 31.200 2007-4 48.500 250,00 Average: $35,565 2008-1 62.50 31.600 2008-1 49.200 2008-2 62. 50 32. 000 2008-2 50. 000 2008-3 62.50 32.400 2008-3 50. 800 2008-4 62. 50 33. I O0 2008-4 51.400 250,00 IAcqulsition Expense by Quarter ($1000's): Total I 2 I~ 3 ~- ~-- Year 1.304 1,304 870 870 1.321 1.321 685 685 1.339 t. 330 898 998 1.365 1.365 909 909 $2,~74 $2.206 $2,237 $2,274 $8,89~ ~$3,341) ($4,466) ($5,688) ($6,94~) ($3,34~) $~,~36 $1.072 $~,072 $I,072 $4.352 $2,~74 $2,206 $2,237 $2,274 $8.891 $88 S88 $68 S88 $350 ~$4,466) ($5,688) ($6,$4~) ($8,23~) ($8,231) $1.645 $1.308 $953 $573 /$6,1~I) ($6,986) ($7,694) ($8.803) 1.383 923 923 1.400 938 1.418 953 953 1.448 964 $8,994 Average: $35,978 1.400 938 $Z305 $~.204 $2,305 $89 ($9,420) $305 1.418 953 $2,338 $2,370 1.448 964 $2,4t2 ($9,420) ($~0,642) ($~,697) ($8,231) $1.204 $1,204 $~,204 $4,8f8 $2,338 $~2,3~ 7~ $88 $89 $89 $356 ($10,$42) ($~,897) ($~3,194) ($13,~) $21 ($9,726l ($~i0,663~ ($~.1~61_6) ($12.5797_ *** Application received but deal closing considered unlikely. CONCLUSIONS & OBSERVATIONS The cashflow projections indicate that an additional $18.5 million will be required to finance land preservation during the period 2003-2008 over and above the funds generated by the 2% transfer tax and the $6 million available from bonds already authorized. Given the cashflow projection based on the deals on the table, we will exceed the available bond money by $1.2 million by the end of the second quarter of 2004. · If stewardship costs are not covered by the town's general fund, the only alternative soume is the 2% fund. However, the law requires that the use of 2% funds for stewardship expenses be restricted to properties which were bought using 2% fund. A reserve level must therefore be established within the 2% fund to cover stewardship and other expenses or the town will be forced to fund these expenses from the general fund. Given the expense demands against the 2% fund ($324K in 2004) plus the need to have funds available for TOS purchases where stewardship will be required, the reserve level should probably be set at the $500- 1000K range. · Whether or not a reserve is set within the 2% fund, we will exhaust our total available capital in the fourth quarter of 2004 if all the deals currently on the table are to be executed and we act on a modest (50 acres) of applications yet to be received for the second half of 2004, · As the town's purchases remove 250 acres amaually from the supply of buildable property, each year the preservation program's impact on the amount of remaining land will grow greater (250 acres is 5% of 5000 acres, but 6.25% of 4000 acres). The law of supply-and-demand dictates that as the supply declines and the demand level remains at least constant, the cost of the remaining commodity will rise without regard to other inflationary factors. The impact of this economic principle has not been factored into the foregoing cashflow projections, but it is significant. · Page 10 of 10